Prediction 3 – China Opens, Booms and Busts
China did open, as predicted, but its economy did not boom, whilst its asset prices, particularly property, did bust, and continues to bust, despite attempts by the state to prop up the vast real estate companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden.
The reasons its economy did not boom, certainly not by the 18% seen the previous time it was opened, have already been alluded to. China is suffering from the effects of the global trade war undertaken by US imperialism and its allies, targeted at China and Russia. The US has sought to deny China both the supply of, and investment in, cutting edge technology, and has also put restrictions on the sale of Chinese technology across the globe, to prevent China dominating the technology standards for mobile networks, and so on.
It may be that the more rapid growth of the Chinese economy has simply been delayed, as it now becomes more reliant on growth of its own domestic consumption. In addition, the problems in its real estate sector also impact that domestic economy. The prediction of the bust of that real estate sector was again proved correct. Its Stock Market rose in the early part of the year to 3400, before falling to 2942, a fall of 17%, by the end of the year.
The government is again promising addition fiscal and monetary stimulus, which looks set to further the potential for financial bubbles, and busts.
Prediction 4 – There Is A Ceasefire In The Ukraine-Russia War
The prediction that Russia would consolidate its position in Eastern and South-Eastern Ukraine, whose annexation had been its goal all along, was confirmed. NATO imperialism, Ukraine and their apologists confounded themselves with their own propaganda, convincing themselves of Russia's intention to invade the whole of Ukraine, a prospect that was never on the cards. But, NATO/Ukraine needed that to be the case, so that Russia would fight on terrain not of its choosing, consuming men and materiel in an endless meat grinder. Instead, it is Ukrainian forces put in that position, and NATO that is left supplying money and weapons into an empty pit.
The disclosure of US Defence Department papers, which assessed that Ukraine had no chance of making headway in its “counter-offensive”, really just confirmed what any sensible unbiased observer already knew. The Spring Offensive, never happened, and the Summer Offensive, despite all of the hype over the supply of the latest hi-tech NATO tanks and equipment, was a damp squib. Large amounts of this equipment, as well as money disappeared in the the networks of Ukrainian corruption, long before it got anywhere near the battlefield. Zelensky was led to sack various officials for corruption, but as the Guardian and other western media had reported in the years prior to the war, that fish rotted from the head. It is the same rot of corruption that makes a mockery of the EU's consideration of Ukraine membership. There is no more chance of Ukraine joining the EU than there is Turkey, and if it did, it would spell the beginning of the end for the EU itself.
The result of the prank phone call to EU leaders, in which they were tricked into admitting that countries in the EU are getting fed up of sending money, and munitions to Ukraine, again only confirmed what everyone really knew. The EU has again been played for suckers by US imperialism, via NATO. It's EU countries that have paid much higher energy costs, whilst the US's huge energy companies benefited from it; it's the EU that has taken in large numbers of Ukrainian refugees, not the US, just as the EU took in the millions of refugees resulting from US imperialism's wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria; it's workers in the EU that are seeing their economies slowed by those costs, and seeing governments impose fiscal austerity to cover the spending on weapons sent to Ukraine etc.
Ukraine's population has fallen by 20%, many of them being its potential active workers, with the elderly, and very young left behind. Were it not that Zelensky knows that if he tries to negotiate, he will be replaced, and so long as he remains in place, US/NATO imperialism will keep financing his regime, the chances are that a peace deal would already have been negotiated, just as without the huge financial and military support given to the Zionist regime in Israel, it would have had to negotiate a ceasefire with Palestinians.
But, Ukraine cannot sustain the war, even with that support from NATO. It is facing dissent in its ranks, as troops see themselves being sent in to impossible situations, simply to maintain the pretence of a possibility of retaking territory, whilst those same soldiers see the politicians, bureaucrats and oligarchs making out like the bandits they really are. We have seen such situations before in history, and they lead to sudden collapse, troops turning on their own officers and regimes. In World War I, however, those troops were organised and led by Bolsheviks who from the start had told them that “The Main Enemy Is At Home”. Instead, today, the workers are having to deal with political leaders that have driven them into the arms of their own corrupt ruling classes, and NATO imperialism, who have even told them that these capitalist states “have a right to defend themselves”, at the cost of workers' lives, and even that these states and imperialism “defend workers' interests”!
Those class traitors will pay for their betrayals. Both the Ukrainian ruling class, and its state, but also the Ukrainian workers see the writing on the wall. Biden's anti-working class regime has created the conditions for a return of the abominable Trump. Indeed, world politics, in some ways, has turned on the personal interests of the Trump and Biden families, in relation to their connections to Russia and Ukraine, and the corruption that goes with it. For Ukraine, it seems a no-win situation. In the unlikely event, now, that the Democrats defeat Trump, despite Biden, they can't get continued financing for the Ukraine War, and even with it, Ukraine is losing. But, a win for Trump means that the money and weapons stop even sooner. Ukraine has seen such history before as with the Lienz Cossacks.
Capitalists survive because they have the most supple spines, and ability to squirm into the most convenient shapes to fit changed conditions, as when French capitalists quickly adapted to the fascist regime, following Nazi occupation. The Ukrainian oligarchs will be already planning their most adaptable form for the period ahead. But, EU governments will, or should, be seeing the consequences of the US cutting and running from Ukraine, too. The ceasefire, and new arrangements following it, may not have transpired in 2023, but the facts on the ground leading to it have only grown stronger.
Prediction 5 – Tories Call An Autumn Election
As I wrote several weeks ago, that prediction clearly was not going to materialise. However, many, now, think the Tories will go for an election in early May, meaning the prediction was merely out by a few months. In fact, as I wrote, recently, the chances of a snap election, before May, and before the Tories have to present another Budget, seem strong to me. The basic arguments set out in the prediction still hold. Starmer managed to eke out the poll lead again, due to Tory incompetence and divisions, mostly over Europe, once again. But, Starmer's own Brexitory position means Labour cannot fully capitalise on it. Only the failure of the Liberals to make re-joining the EU the centrepiece of their own strategy has allowed Starmer to get away with that.
In the meantime, the reactionary nationalist position of Starmer, and the reality of a Brexit Britain, politically subordinated to US imperialism, means that he has pursued a wholly reactionary, racist and Islamophobic policy in defending the genocide being committed by the Zionists against Palestinians, which has also exploded the sham nature of the arguments he has used in relation to the NATO/Ukraine – Russia War. It has already cost Blue Labour thousands of its members, including councillors, in turn, resulting in the loss of entire councils.
Labour's support amongst Muslim communities has sunk to near zero, which in some seats will, again, cost it victory. The Tories will also know, however, that, one way or another, the genocide against Palestinians will not last forever.
Either the Zionists will annihilate the Palestinian population of Gaza, and then, consolidate before renewing their theft of Palestinian lands in the West Bank, or else, the fact of global opposition to that genocide, as elections approach in the US, will lead to a ceasefire being imposed. Either way, the current understandable hostility to the craven policies of Starmer and Blue Labour, in supporting such genocide, may moderate as voters face the choice of Starmer or Sunak, whose own position is no better.
So, a Spring Election looks likely, the only question being whether its early or late.
Predictions For 2024 Will Start Next Week
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