Prediction 5 – Tories Call An Autumn Election
Whether a cease-fire or peace deal on Ukraine is reached or not, the ending of Chinese lockdowns, and the booming of its economy, with global primary product prices rising by up to 40%, along with the fact that workers across the globe are mobilising to demand higher wages, which will feed into demand for wage goods, and consequently aggregate demand, means that there will be no global recession in 2023. Moreover, central banks, to ensure that firms do not suffer a sharp squeeze on their profits from those higher wages, and higher material costs, will continue to make available liquidity so that firms can raise prices to compensate, meaning inflation does not go away, but sees further waves of it during the year. With populations having been primed with the idea of recession, that will create a feeling of relief and even well-being, despite the continued inflation, incumbent governments may benefit.
The Tories will have to concede on public sector pay this year, having tried to hold out against strikes, but will face the potential of a repeat come next Winter, and also with rising interest rates to cover significantly increased borrowing, causing it potential problems as time goes on. The Tories recognise that Starmer's Blue Labour also has a problem in that regard. Starmer will not support strikes, nor higher wages, but the Tories will try to portray him as hostage to the unions, which will lead to him adopting an even more aggressively anti-worker stance, as he seeks the backing of “public opinion”. With Starmer already alienating Labour's core working-class support, as a result of him turning Labour into a UKIP MkII, including losing tens of thousands of its core members, Labour's lead in the opinion polls will be seen to be ephemeral, and superficial.
Sunak will, by the Summer, be seen to have distanced the Tories from the idiocies of Truss. They may even have abandoned most of the remaining idiocy of the attempts to proclaim that they had got Brexit done, and, especially, as a clear majority of those that voted for Brexit now think they made a mistake, the door is open to Sunak to do deals with the EU on the NI Protocol, and closer ties to the EU. He will be able to shore up the Tory core vote, and may see no better time to call an election, as the following year will hold out unforeseen pitfalls, with no time to recover from them. An Autumn election, after voters have felt the benefit of Summer holidays, particularly Summer holidays when freer travel to Europe will have been possible, and before a new round of strikes for higher pay, will seem an opportune time for him.
The Labour lead in the polls can already be seen to be ephemeral and shallow. First there was large-scale opposition to Johnson that was whipped up by a sensationalist media that had been outdone in its support for lockdowns only by the Chinese Stalinists, and who, therefore, could not resist making a mountain out of the molehill that was Bojo's attendance at parties during lockdowns. That was followed by the Brexitory idiocy of Liz Truss, and its repercussions, from which anything less than double digit poll leads for Labour would have been an indication of the complete failure of Starmer to present a credible alternative. But, already, Sunak has reduced Labour's lead from 30 points to just 11.
The reality of Labour's lead is quite different to the superficial appearance. Faced with a poll question of who they would vote for, respondents basically answer in accordance with who they would oppose, and who they think has best chance of defeating those they oppose. Its essentially a binary referendum. In conditions of huge anti-Tory sentiment, its obvious that poll respondents will manifest that by saying they would support the obvious alternative to the Tories, which is Blue Labour. But, that is not the way voters act in an actual election, where they are voting for parties in their particular constituency. That was seen clearly in the by-elections of 2022, when Liberals won Tory seats, where they had previously been third behind Labour. In actual elections, voters, voting tactically, look not to who might have the best chance nationally, but in their particular seat.
As those by-elections showed, there are hundreds of seats where voters will oppose the reactionary policies of the Tories, but who will also oppose the reactionary Brexitory policies of Blue Labour too. In those seats, Liberals and Greens will form a core opposition to the Tories, but, in many of them, they will, also, thereby, form a solid pole of attraction around which disenchanted, progressive Labour voters will rally, creating a bandwagon, drawing other progressive voters towards them. That will be particularly true in Tory seats, meaning that the Liberals, in particular, will pick up many more seats than the polls currently suggest, with Labour, thereby, picking up substantially less. If the Liberals, particularly under pressure form Greens, adopt a much more aggressive pro-EU stance in coming months, seizing on the clear majority of the population that now supports re-joining the EU at the earliest opportunity, that would even more be the case. The Tories are also likely to recognise that split in the anti-Tory vote, and see the benefit of an election.
But, the myth of the metropolitan elite, which is behind the reactionary populist ideology of Blue Labour, means that there are many progressive voters in the so called Red Wall seats that will be attracted to the Liberals also, meaning that Labour will fail to pick up as many of those seats as the polls currently suggest, particularly as the Tories also claw back some of their support in those areas. Voters in those seats will be presented with a choice of Sunak's Brexitories, Starmer's pale imitation of it, or a progressive alternative from the Liberals. Reactionaries will tend to go for the real thing, rather than the pale imitation, whilst progressive voters will reject both and go for the Liberals. That may well be insufficient to win many of those seats for Liberals, but will be enough to prevent Labour winning the numbers currently predicted. Certainly, in Scotland, Labour's chances look hopeless, for exactly these reasons.
And, the reality is that Labour's winning performances in past elections has always depended on winning a large number, and usually a majority, of seats in Scotland. This time its likely to be wiped out North of the border, with the Tories also picking up maybe only 1 or 2 seats. The Tories may still not be able to win an Autumn election, but it will give them, perhaps, the best chance of doing so, and to retain a sufficient number of seats to be a viable contender for the next election. But, the split of votes and seats is likely to be such that Labour also cannot win an overall majority. With more than 50 seats going to the SNP, and with a much enlarged contingent of Liberals, Labour will have to rely on a deal with these other parties, and they will insist on some kind of concessions from it. The Liberals may want PR, but the SNP have no reason to insist on it, as it would reduce their Westminster haul of seats, and the Scottish Parliament already has it. However, both Liberals and SNP, as well as the Greens and Plaid, and the SDLP and Alliance, all have reason to demand that Labour change course on Europe, and not just on the ridiculous basis of Starmer's “cakism”.
Thee is no such thing as a Labour Brexit, or one that enables Britain to have its cake and eat it. You can stay out of the EU, whilst subordinating yourself to it, even more, by applying to re-join the single market (which is just formalising what is more or less the current reality, apart from free movement), but why would you do that rather than actually re-joining, and so having a say in the formation of those rules, and so on? Starmer is now too tied to Blue Labour Brexitoryism to be able to credibly change position, so any such deal is likely to require his removal. The Blairites would clearly like to see the master's protégé, David Miliband return, but maybe, a compromise that would keep the unions, and core members on board, would be a return of the brother.
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