Trump clearly blinked first, leading commentators to see this as yet further confirmation of the TACO Syndrome (Trump Always Chickens Out). As the time arrived for Iran to capitulate to his latest childish tantrum, and it didn't, he and US imperialism, were left with the option of carrying out his promise to end Iranian civilisation in just 4 hours – which could only be done via a widespread nuclear attack on a country that is as big as France, Germany, Spain and Britain combined, and with a population of over 90 million – or else to back down. Given the childish nature of Trump, and the fact that, in the end, he and his friend Netanyahu, are implementing the interests of US imperialism, albeit in their own, moronic fashion, I would not have been surprised had it been the former rather than the latter.
Trump blinked first, but maybe not last. He blinked because, everyone knew that his threat was either empty, or just as fatal for US imperialism, its Zionist and Gulf allies, and for Trump, as it was for the Iranian regime. Already, the propaganda wheels have come off the western imperialist, i.e. NATO wagon. The claims of it being a purely benign, “defensive” alliance, that its global military adventures, thousands of miles away from its own territory, were, merely, it acting as a global policeman, to uphold international law, and a rules based order, were always pompous bullshit, believed only by the most gullible, or the campists who were prepared to tightly close their eyes to reality, as they chose to align with the western “democratic-imperialist” camp, as the means of fulfilling their own moral imperatives, having accepted their own impotence, and long since abandoned the working-class, as the revolutionary agent of historical change.
The façade of international law, of the so called rules based order has been stripped away, as has the veneer of
bourgeois-democracy itself, most notably in the US and UK, where governments and the state, responded to growing protest at the genocide being committed against Palestinians by the Zionist state and armed, funded and politically defended by western imperialism, with the most brutal repression, on campuses across the US, and in Britain by the ridiculous labelling of Palestine Action as a
“terrorist organisation”, leading to thousands of police hours being taken up to arrest peaceful grannies, sitting in protest. That began not with Trump, but under Biden, and was given the full-throated support of Starmer and his government. It has cratered support in the electorate for Trump, but not yet clearly manifested itself as a support for those to the Left of the Democrats. It has destroyed the Labour Party, but again, has created only support for the Greens, who in the latest polls, now have a clear lead over all the other parties.
NATO and its media propaganda machine have spent the last 4 years spelling out the idea that Putin's invasion of Eastern Ukraine was “illegal”, because they shot first. The facile nature of such claims was made clear by Lenin and others more than a century ago, when they were made by the imperialists in relation to Germany. Lenin noted,
“Imperialism camouflages its own peculiar aims – seizure of colonies, markets, sources of raw material, spheres of influence – with such ideas as “safeguarding peace against the aggressors,” “defence of the fatherland,” “defence of democracy,” etc. These ideas are false through and through. It is the duty of every socialist not to support them but, on the contrary, to unmask them before the people. “The question of which group delivered the first military blow or first declared war,” wrote Lenin in March 1915, “has no importance whatever in determining the tactics of socialists. Phrases about the defence of the fatherland, repelling invasion by the enemy, conducting a defensive war, etc., are on both sides a complete deception of the people.” “For decades,” explained Lenin, “three bandits (the bourgeoisie and governments of England, Russia, and France) armed themselves to despoil Germany. Is it surprising that the two bandits (Germany and Austria-Hungary) launched an attack before the three bandits succeeded in obtaining the new knives they had ordered?””
That was not seen by Lenin and Trotsky as a reason to defend, let alone support, the actions of German imperialism, but merely to point out the hypocritical and lying nature of the claims by Britain and France. There was no need to side with either of these two camps, but, instead to side with the independent camp of the global working-class, whose position should be to turn the guns on their own respective ruling-class, to turn the world war of nation against nation, into a global class war of proletariat against bourgeoisie, as Marx had called for in “Wage-Labour and Capital”.
Russia had openly said that if NATO sought to expand into Ukraine, it would be seen as an aggressive move, preparatory to war, back in 2007, at the time that Saakashvilli, who sought to ingratiate himself with NATO and the EU, by wrapping himself in those flags at every press event, and by his attacks on ethnic Russians in South Ossetia, gave Putin the reason to annex South Ossetia. The idea of a pre-emptive invasion of Ukraine by Russia has been repeatedly dismissed as “illegal” by NATO imperialism and its apologists.
But that same justification has been used by Trump and Netanyahu for their bombing of Iran, and of Lebanon, Syria etc. What really upsets western imperialism/NATO is that the moronic nature of Trump, and of Netanyahu, exposes all of the carefully crafted veneer to their global military strategy. Trump/Netanyahu do not bother with all the old claims about upholding
“international law”, or a
“rules based system”, or
“liberal intervention” to prevent atrocities. Why would they? They are not
“liberals”, i.e.
“neo-liberals/conservative social-democrats”, of the type that constructed the global order, after WWII, for the benefit of large-scale, multinational
capital. They are petty-bourgeois nationalists, proponents of a system that died even by the end of the 19th century.
Trump makes clear that what he wants is simply a return to colonialism, which itself died along with the economic system that created it – mercantilism. The return of those ideas, is simply a reflection in the mind of the fact that, as western
industrial capitalism has relatively declined, over the last 40 years, a decadent class of billionaire owners of
fictitious-capital has grown alongside a 50% growth of the reactionary petty-bourgeoisie. Trump is emblematic of it.
He openly says he
“wants the oil”, he wants to
“make a fortune” from robbing it from the people of Venezuela, or Iran. He has fantasies about becoming a new
George III, who the Americans overthrew as their King, in the
American Revolution, 250 years ago. George III, of course, had his own
mental health issues, as, clearly does Trump. Trump's statements about seizing Greenland/Iceland and so on both reflect his moronic nature, but, also, expose the underlying conflict between US imperialism, and its NATO subordinates within EU imperialism. Its partly why those EU subordinates in NATO have continued to
de facto support Trump's war against Iran, whilst denying they are doing so.
A couple of weeks ago, I posted a comment on James O'Brien's LBC YouTube video, which had asked whether the Iran War was just a distraction, used by Trump, from the Epstein files – itself a symptom of that decadence of the billionaire class that has settled on the surface of the ruling-class like scum. O'Brien at the time asked the question whether, in that case, Trump would look for an off-ramp. I pointed out, in my comment that whatever Trump's personal motivation, the fact remains that US imperialism locked in a global imperialist struggle with a rising Eurasian imperialism, whose influence is growing in the Middle-East, embarked on the Abraham Accords, so as to promote the Zionist state, and ensure that it, along with US other allies in the region, Egypt, the Gulf monarchies etc., to create a politico-economic bloc that is friendly to the US-EU, and able, thereby to resist the advances of China.
The genocide against the Palestinians is fundamental to that plan, but, so too is the neutering of Iran, which acts as the proxy for China-Russia, just as the Zionist state does for NATO. Consequently, whether Trump again chickened out again or not, last night, the reality is that the task of US imperialism and of Zionism is not done. The Iranian regime may have made a big mistake in agreeing a ceasefire and opening the Straits of Hormuz, because as seen last year, and as the Iranian people seem to understand, once the oil has flowed again, and the financial markets have made trillions for the billionaire class, in a relief rally, US imperialism and its Zionist ally will be back to finish the job.