I wrote this series of posts the day after Trump had bombed Iran. The day after they began to appear, Trump announced that he had negotiated a ceasefire between the Zionist state and Iran. I had a decision to make about whether to delay the remaining posts. Obviously, only an inveterate sectarian would hope that a war between the US and Iran would not be averted, simply in order to confirm their own view. However, I decided to continue to publish the remaining posts, on schedule, because, the real purpose of the posts, and the analysis, is not about whether Trump takes the US into a “forever” war with Iran, and so, whether the war he had, indeed, started with them, by bombing the nuclear facilities – itself illegal under international law – lasted a day, or a decade, but was about what the fact that he had undertaken such an action at all, tells us about his regime.
In other words, Trump and his regime had no idea whether starting a war with Iran, by bombing these facilities would lead to an escalation, and the US being drawn into a widening conflagration, at least in the Middle-East, and potentially extending beyond that. Yet, he, and his regime were prepared to do so, even though, that went against everything he and his acolytes have been saying for the last decade, at least, in their petty-bourgeois, nationalistic, and isolationist arguments against the former US governments, both Democrat and Republican. The MAGA base, riled up on those ideas, but already fracturing, as the reality of trying to implement those ideas in the era of imperialism, was up in arms, warning Trump against such a betrayal. But, he did betray them, with no idea where his action was going to lead. It signified that Trump, and his regime had been captured by the US “deep” state, as they refer to it, but which is, in fact, simply the US imperialist state, operating in the way the state always does to limit the actions of the government, which serves, merely as an adornment to where the real power lies. As Trotsky notes, real power resides in the control over property, not through the ballot box.
Bit by bit, as Trump and his regime get bogged down, trudging through the mud of one court case after another, of the simple day after day frustration of their agenda, by a permanent state bureaucracy comprising millions of civil servants who have far more knowledge than does Trump, and his government of a few dozen amateurs, his regime is sucked under, and captured by that state. The fact that, in this process, Trump's government, also, is confronted with the reality that his petty-bourgeois, nationalist agenda is simply stupid, and unviable, even for a huge economy like the US, in the age of imperialism, just accelerates the contradictions. That is the basis of TACO. Its not a character flaw of Trump – though he has many of them - that leads him to always chicken out, when it comes to the implementation of those tariffs, etc., but the reality that they are stupid, unviable, damage his own electoral base, despite everything he told them, and so, as with Brexit, when other countries like the EU and so on, call his bluff, he has to chicken out.
The consequence of Trump's first term, of collapsing the JCPOA, created the conditions that the US and the Zionist state found themselves in, today. In the end, both US imperialism, and the Zionist state, in Israel, need to overthrow the Iranian regime. It acts as the main proxy for Chinese/Russian imperialism in the Middle East, which also, plays a pivotal role, economically and strategically, into Asia, North Africa, and Southern Europe. As I have set out before, once you discard all of the superficial, moralistic nonsense about alliances based on “democracies”, and so on, the reality is that the EU could easily, orientate itself towards closer ties with Eurasia, but, the US not only cannot, but any such closer ties by the EU, would directly weaken US imperialism.
For US imperialism, preventing any further expansion of Chinese/Russian influence in the Gulf, is vital. Hence the Abraham Accords, in which the role of the Zionist state, in Israel is central. What US imperialism seeks is a trading block, in the Middle-East, dominated by the Zionist state. It does not matter to US imperialism whether the other states in this block are “democracies” or run by dictators and feudal despots, such as those in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, respectively. On the contrary, US imperialism, and its subordinates, in Europe, have most frequently operated via such tyrants, as with the Shah, Pinochet and so on. The only difference between Trump's regime, and that of the previous Obama/Biden regime is how this is bought about.
So, the Obama/Biden regime, proceeded on a similar basis to the strategy used in Eastern Europe against Russia. The JCPOA did not propose an all-out war with Iran, just as NATO did not propose an all-out war with post-soviet Russia. Indeed, in the immediate post-soviet period, US imperialism thought it could turn Russia into its own semi-colony, much as western powers had done with China in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Its why US imperialism sent over teams of liberal economists like Jeffrey Sachs, and Steve Liesman, as well as dozens of US corporations to exploit the large reserves of cheap Russian labour, not to mention the vast natural resources. When all of that fell apart, for similar reasons that it fell apart for western imperialism in China, in the 20th century – indeed Putin could be seen as a modern, Russian equivalent of Chiang Kai Shek – NATO, began the process of isolating Russia, and salami slicing its borders, and near abroad.
The same has happened with Iran, and that process accelerated in the last few years, as the Zionist state with the support of NATO, carried out an assault on multiple fronts, starting with the genocide against Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, and spreading out into the destruction of Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria, and the annexation, by the Zionist state of land, in the latest bout of its expansionist agenda. In that process, Iran, itself, was, thereby, isolated and weakened, as it could no longer rely on its proxies to bear the brunt of actual military conflict. So, its not at all clear that the strategy of US imperialism, as most cogently expressed by the Democrats, is not, today, to go for a war with Iran, for regime change, as against its earlier strategy, of attrition, and an internal rebellion, which is still its strategy in respect to Russia. On the contrary, we know from the open mouth that is Pete Hegseth that this attack was planned “months ago”, in detail, which means, it was probably initiated under the previous Biden/Harris regime. It was carefully, choreographed with the Zionist state, with Mossad, and other special forces infiltrating Iran over a long period, to identify targets, and take in equipment used to take out air defence systems and so on.
The only difference, here, is probably that, without the constraints of MAGA, faced by Trump, a Harris regime would have simply followed through on the initial bombing by embracing a continued war to unseat the Iranian regime. But, in that case, not only will the Zionist state, which indeed, wanted to continue down that road, to finish the job, be unsatisfied with leaving it there, but nor will US imperialism, putting Trump in something of a bind. This explains Trump's actions in declaring the existence of a ceasefire, and his fury and desperation when it became clear that no such ceasefire actually existed.
Trump announced the ceasefire using his grossly misnamed social media platform, “Truth Social”. But, the existence of the ceasefire seemed also to be news to both the Iranians, and to the Zionist state. It amounted to Trump, in desperation, as he saw a growing shit storm amongst his own MAGA base, requiring him to do something to show he had not, in fact, taken the US into yet another forever war. So, he declared the existence of something that didn't exist, claimed that both the Iranians and the Zionists had rang him at the very same time, pleading for him to negotiate a ceasefire, when, in fact, no such appeals had been made! On the contrary, it appears that it was Trump, who contacted the Iranians begging them to agree to a ceasefire. As they had said all along, they would stop firing missiles at Israel, once the Zionist state stopped attacking them.
But, again, that presented a problem for Trump, as the Zionists state seemed to have no desire to stop attacking Iran, and that follows from its agenda, not of destroying a non-existent, Iranian nuclear bomb programme, but of overthrowing the regime, a goal that Trump had himself committed to only days before! So, when, Iran responded by sending another missile strike on Israel, strikes which increasingly were penetrating the supposedly invincible Iron Dome, and other air defences, not surprisingly, the Zionist state, sent an even bigger payload of bombs to attack Tehran. Originally, it was claimed that Iran had only made a token gesture of attacking the US air base in Qatar, but subsequently, it has been set out that the US used the greatest number of Patriot missiles ever, to shoot down the incoming Iranian missiles.
So, within hours of Trump's declaration of a ceasefire, it was clear not only that no such ceasefire existed, but that Iran was still firing back at, now, both the Zionist state, and against the US. Trump had, no doubt been told that having launched the huge attacks on Fordow and other facilities, the Iranians would fold, even that, potentially, there would be an internal uprising or palace coup, such as they have continually been claiming was imminent in Moscow. In fact, having declared his ceasefire that neither Iran nor the Zionist state knew about or were abiding by, he drew on the imagery of the US bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the ending of WWII. But, someone should have told him that it was not the use of those bombs that led the Japanese to surrender to the US, but the fact that they feared the Red Army over-running them. The Japanese had suffered much devastation, and thought that the US did not have any more nuclear bombs to drop on it.
The same kind of thing appears to be true of the bombing of Fordow, which Trump and Hegseth have been frantic in trying to portray as having been completely successful in “obliterating” the Iranian nuclear programme. They need such a narrative, because otherwise, for the MAGA base, what was the purpose of engaging in yet another foreign war? Yet, even before the bombs were dropped thee was a question about how effective they would be, in practice, as against the test conditions.
Its clear that if the attack has not “obliterated” Iran's nuclear programme for years to come, then, not only was Trump suckered into launching a war into which he will get drawn in, and so continually alienate his MAGA base, but that, he will be under increasing pressure to go back and finish the job, or enable his proxy, the Zionist state to do so.
So, it was vital for Trump to believe that the attack had destroyed the Iranian nuclear programme. Even if its accepted that the attack was successful, in blowing up the facilities, the reality is that most if not all of the enriched uranium would have been removed, and possibly a lot of the centrifuges and so on. Its reported that some time ago, Russia offered to store the Iranian stockpiles, and Trump is not going to be bombing Russia. In addition both Russia and China have facilities in Iran itself. Most importantly, the real nuclear programme resides in the realm of scientific know-how, and although the Zionist state has murdered many of Iran's top scientists, the know-how lives on in computer data, and in the heads and experience of hundreds of other Iranian scientists. The only thing the bombing of these sites has done is to encourage the Iranians to end cooperation with the NPT, and remove the IAEA inspectors, as well as to give the clear message that the sooner they get the bomb, the better, to be able to benefit from what all of the existing nuclear powers claims to be its justification, i.e. nuclear deterrence.
So, when the Zionist state seemed to be defying Trump, and undermining his narrative, it is no wonder that he flew into a rage. When, the similar claims that the attacks had obliterated the facilities were challenged, including from a leaked US intelligence assessment, Trump and Hegseth again, were sent into a rage, riven by panic as their narrative collapses around them.
I am not an expert on such matters, and, although Professor Postol is, he, also, does not know what the actual situation is following these attacks, as he says. His assessment of their effectiveness was made prior to the attacks, however, meaning this is not just some attempt to undermine them after the event. The fact of the Trump regime's reaction, however, does show the importance to them of having the effect they claim be true, not only for their narrative, but also, to avoid the growing pressure they will face to resume the war, if its not!
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