The UK's Mini-Trump
Prior to Brexit, Boris Johnson played the role of Mini-Me to Donald Trump's Doctor Evil. Starmer has simply taken over the role as understudy. Johnson had the similar features, boorish behaviour and so on, whilst Starrner lacks all of the charisma usually associated with such a Bonapartist, but, in terms of political practice, most evident in relation to the adoption of Brexit, and petty-bourgeois nationalism and so on, in search of the support of the votes of reactionaries, there is straightforward continuity.
As I argued at the time of Starmer's leadership bid, he would be the hostage of the Labour Right, a fact that has now been shown in the recent revelations.
He is the puppet of Blue Labour, a clockwork automaton, wound up and set in motion by them, with no ideas or principles of his own, and Reeves seems to have been produced from the same mould. Trump's approach to Britain, of suggesting it might escape the imposition of his tariffs, partly reflects the irrelevance of the British economy outside the EU, partly the fact that the UK's trade is more or less in balance with the US, as against the large EU trade surplus with the US, and partly the fact that, in adopting this stance, Trump seeks to drive a wedge between the UK and EU, for his own advantage.
The UK has, since WWII, acted as the US agent in the EU. The EU is, objectively, the main competitor to the US, even though, currently, in alliance with, and subordinated to it, in the global imperialist competition with China/BRICS+. The UK has acted to keep the EU in that position. Over that time, the UK has oriented economically to its nearest and most important trading partner – the EU – whilst orienting politically, militarily, and strategically to US imperialism. That was most evident under Blair, as seen in relation to the Iraq War, and it is the basis of Starmer and Reeves' attempt to maintain the stance that they will not side with either the US or the EU, which really means siding with the US. It is a position that is no longer viable.
The total value of UK trade with the US is £294 billion. UK exports to the US amount to £60 billion. Total UK trade with the EU, however, is £847 billion, and UK exports to the EU £356 billion. The EU accounts for 42% of UK exports, and 52% of UK imports. So, it is a no-brainer. UK exports to the EU are six times the value of its exports to the US. Indeed, its exports alone are greater than the total value of trade with the US. Starmer's attempt to say that he is neutral between the US and EU, is not sustainable, and Trump's Tariffs simply bring that out into the open more quickly.
UK trade with the EU is dominant, despite all of the constraints placed on it by Brexit. That is inevitable, because of the proximity of the two. If Trump imposes Tariffs on the EU, but not Britain, and Britain attempts to obtain advantage by negotiating some deal with Trump, it will simply provoke a response from the EU. The cakeist idea of negotiating some kind of favourable Brexit was and is, total nonsense, but under conditions of Britain trying to do deals with Trump, at the expense of the EU, it is even more nonsensical. Indeed, the idea put forward by Ed Davey of some kind of UK-EU Customs Union, is also ridiculous. Firstly, the EU has said there is no way such a set up would now be undertaken, without Britain, or any other country joining the EU itself. Secondly, as set out during the EU Referendum campaign, there is no great benefit from being in a Customs Union without being inside the Single Market.
If the UK were in a Customs Union with the EU, it would certainly make Trump's attempts to divide the two impossible, but the main impediments to trade, in these conditions, arise not from the tariffs, but all of the other non-tariff barriers to trade. It is the vast increase in red-tape that has resulted from Brexit that has reduced trade, slowed the movement of goods, and raised costs, for Britain. So Starmer's cakeist solution is impossible, and if he is drawn into the lair of Trump, it will simply extend the damage done by Brexit even further, and make trade with the EU even more difficult.
It may be that Starmer and Reeves do get drawn in the direction of Trump, however. The promise of some freebies, of the possibility of access to Trump resorts, or future jobs, might be all that is required, based on the experience of the last six months. But, also, Starmer and Blue Labour share the same reactionary, petty-bourgeois nationalist ideology as Trump. As we speak, a group of even more far-right, nationalist and racist members of the PLP are demanding that Starmer position Blue Labour to the Right of Reform, in relation to immigration, as they scrabble for the votes of racists and bigots, and, thereby, continue the destruction of Labour, as they push its core, progressive, working-class support in the direction of the, superficially, more progressive Liberals, Greens, Plaid, SNP etc.
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