Over recent days, the media, and those that have delusional ideas about Starrmer, somehow, turning sharply Left, in government, have noted his meetings with Macron. This is the same Macron, of course, who is currently attacking the rights of French workers, who have taken to the streets in their millions, in mass strikes to defend their pensions. All that Starmer has presented is the old cakeist fantasy that Labour could, somehow, renegotiate with the EU, the Brexit deal, to achieve a “Labour Brexit”, in which Britain would obtain a better deal than were it an actual member of the EU. That is just fantastical British exceptionalism, jingoism, and petty-bourgeois nationalism summed up.
A renegotiation of Brexit is not possible, and any closer relation to the EU, will simply involve Britain subordinating itself to the EU even more, in order to obtain the quid pro quo of that closer relation. That just amounts to what I said two years ago that the economic reality draws Britain back closer to the EU by a series of individual deals to re-enter various institutions, like Horizon etc., all of which, then, cost Britain more than were it a member, and give it fewer rights and privileges. The only meaningful closer relation, would be membership of the Single Market, but that is not possible, unless Britain accepts all of the things that go with it, such as the restoration of free movement. That would be a progressive development, in itself, but, of course, Starmer, as he has collapsed into petty-bourgeois nationalism and jingoism, has ruled it out! Moreover, if you are going to re-join the single market, and accept everything that goes with it, what kind of idiot would not, then, also want to have a say in formulating its rules, which requires re-joining the EU itself?!
Starmer's petty-bourgeois, nationalist agenda cannot meet the requirements of the ruling-class for an end to Brexit, so as to restore the benefits of being a part of that larger single market. Its backing Starmer, because it has even less chance, currently, of obtaining that from the Tories, who are still wracked by their contradictions, with Truss's reactionary petty-bourgeois wing still fantasising over a new coup to remove Sunak. The ruling class may, itself, be deluding itself that Starrmer might once again perform another flip flop, once in government, just as he previously abandoned his pro-Remain position, and lied through his teeth about sticking with the various progressive social-democratic elements of the Corbyn agenda. More likely, it is preparing to just replace him, before or after the election, with a pro-EU, Blairite, more under its control.
In that respect, a much better and more reliable option, for the ruling class, would be the conservative social-democrats of the Liberal Democrats. But, their chance for that more or less disappeared with the attempts to forge such a new grouping in 2019, which suffered not only from the contradictions inherent in such a group, but also from the abominable political leadership given to it, by the likes of Swinson, Umunna, and Soubry. Yet, the fact that Starmer has abandoned even the ground of conservative social democracy for that of petty-bourgeois, reactionary nationalism, gives an incentive for the ruling class to seek such a solution.
At the moment, Labour, superficially, has a massive opinion poll lead, but as I have set out before, that may not reflect what happens in an election. The results of by-elections where Labour has massively underperformed, whilst Liberals and Greens have significantly outperformed, at its expense, illustrates that. The Liberals, in particular, look set to be the main beneficiaries of a collapse in Tory votes, in the so called Blue Wall, whilst in many Red Wall seats, Liberals and Greens will pick up large numbers of votes from younger, progressive, working-class voters, appalled at Starmer's collapse into petty-bourgeois, reactionary nationalism. In most places, it will not be enough to win those parties the seats, but will be enough to prevent Labour winning as many of them as the polls currently suggest. Given that the Labour candidates hand picked by Starmer to fight those seats will be the worst representatives of that reactionary nationalism, any failure of them to get elected, will be no great loss, in the overall consideration.
As stated at the start of this series, in the period between 1945 and 2015, the failure of one conservative social-democratic party, simply resulted in its alternate taking its turn in government. Pretty much the same could be said for other developed economies. The collapse of the material conditions that underpinned the model of conservative social-democracy, during the period from 1982 to 2008, made that no longer possible. In conservative parties, dominated by the petty-bourgeoisie, that petty-bourgeoisie was able to assert its interests, demanding a turning back of progress, be it in respect of a nationalist agenda (Brexit, Trumpism, Le Pen), or in broader social policy. That petty-bourgeoisie was more successful in doing that, by creating new parties, like UKIP, that acted as a goad on the existing conservative parties than was the working-class, in doing the same from the opposite direction.
Starmer, himself, is a drag on Labour's electoral chances. Currently, many voters still don't even know him, but those that do, know that he can't be trusted, given the way he lied himself into the position of Labour Leader, and the way he has been called “Mr. 180 degrees”, for the way he changes his position overnight. In Red Wall seats, particularly, that is a problem, because, in an election, the Tories will highlight that, and consequently, reactionary voters will not believe his Brexitism, whilst progressive voters, will not believe his sudden reconversion to seeking a closer relation to the EU, especially one, itself, based on a cakeist fantasy. In Britain, its no longer a question even of elections being between a conservative social-democratic party and a petty-bourgeois, reactionary nationalist party, but of the two main parties both squabbling over who can claim the latter mantle.
Worse, for the ruling-class, the contradiction that led to that situation still exists. That is the old model upon which conservative social-democracy functioned for 30 years has collapsed. The only way to increase profits, now, is via capital accumulation, and employment of more labour, to produce more surplus value. But, that will mean the demand for capital grows relative to its supply, causing interest rates to rise, and asset prices to crash. As I have set out, before, that may occur in a variety of ways. Its likely to involve another nominal crash in asset prices, as with 2008. Indeed, last year, as interest rates rose, we already saw a significant drop in asset prices, though they subsequently recovered some of that drop in 2023. Property prices are continuing to fall, and, when compared to the rise in commodity prices and wages, over the last two years, they have dropped even more, in real terms.
This latter, a fall in asset prices, in real terms, over a prolonged period, is the most likely form in which the crash will occur, as central banks continue to try to cushion the effect, by increasing liquidity, and further trashing currencies. A look at the process, in the last similar period, between 1965-85, shows the way that, although asset prices rose, slowly, in nominal terms, they fell in inflation adjusted terms. The ruling class certainly will not want to see a significant fall in their paper wealth, but cannot avoid it. Their ideologists continue to fantasise that rising costs of living will cause workers to rein in consumption, bringing a slow down in economies, and reduction in employment, wages, and demand for capital, so reducing interest rates, and boosting asset prices. That is not happening, and will not happen. Increasing costs of living, simply results, now, in higher wages, and a greater squeeze on profits, causing interest rates to rise further, and asset prices to fall further.
Blue Labour will fail on all these counts. It cannot produce its cakeist Labour Brexit fantasy. It cannot meet the needs of the ruling class for that closer relation to the EU, whilst remaining outside the EU. It cannot put the required investment into UK infrastructure, on the basis of Britain's small economy, especially in conditions of rising interest rates, and certainly not on the basis of its current pledges not to raise taxes. Higher taxes, would simply make British based capital less competitive with the EU, and lead to a further drain of capital from Britain to the EU, heightening the problems it faced. Blue Labour will, undoubtedly look to square that circle in the way such reactionary, petty-bourgeois parties always do, which is to seek to exploit labour even more, and to push even more reactionary policies. It will find itself goaded in that direction, in the absence of any progressive alternative, by pressure from the Tories, and others to their Right. That offers no solution, either, but, as witnessed in 2022, with Trussonomics, is capable of causing even greater chaos and misery, in the process.
Workers need to prepare for that failure, and the danger of it leading to an even greater lurch in the direction of petty-bourgeois, nationalist reaction, now. Already, reactionary nationalism plays a pernicious role in the labour movement, as seen with Lexit, and support for economic nationalism from the likes of Corbyn et al, as well as in the role of social-imperialism, in relation to Ukraine, and support for reactionary nationalist ideas, about national self-determination/defence of the fatherland. The role of those reactionary nationalist ideas, in the labour movement, is one reason that the working-class has failed to provide its own progressive alternatives to conservative social-democracy.
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