Prediction 4 – Zelensky's regime Falls
Zelensky's regime has not, yet, fallen, but it is like a dead man walking. To use Trump's words, at the start of the year, as he politically disembowelled Zelensky in The Oval Office, Zelensky “has no cards.” It is a repetition of many similar situations in the past, described by Marx, Engels, Lenin and Trotsky that those who fetishize the formality of national self-determination, end up simply turning weak nation states into the vassal of some other imperialist power, with its own imperialist ambitions. In essence, its no different to those petit-bourgeois nationalists that backed Brexit/Lexit on the basis of regaining British national self-determination, and taking back control, only, inevitably to see its actual sovereignty and control decimated, as on the one hand, it has to abide by the rules, regulations and conditions of the EU Single Market, to continue trading with it, whilst, on the other hand, subordinating itself to an increasingly, reactionary US imperialism, in order to retain the illusion of having some remnant of its former imperial power, or even relevance. In reality, no matter how much Starmer licks Trump's arse, Britain is sidelined, and made to look ridiculous.
Social-democrats and other social-imperialists, particularly in Europe, who hoped that Trump would be cajoled by the combined forces of western imperialism to throw off his own petty-bourgeois nationalist rhetoric, when in office, and so provide the backing for Zelensky, were inevitably and predictably disappointed. When Trump and his gang eviscerated Zelensky, in the Oval Office, what they were actually doing was, also, eviscerating the likes of Starmer, as well as EU social democrats, who only days before had feted the vulgar and narcissistic Trump, with their snivelling, gut wrenching sycophancy, their visits to the palaces and trappings of 18th century, European colonial empires, and aristocracy. Whilst, radical social-democrats in the US rallied in their millions to declare “No Kings”, European social-democrats, simply offered up to Trump, their “Daddy”, the vision of such monarchical rule, and how much they are still in thrall to it, themselves.
That Zelensky's regime has not yet fallen seems to be a consequence of a number of factors. Trump in rhetorically pulling the plug on Zelensky, gained huge leverage over EU imperialism, which remains the main competitor to US imperialism, despite the rapid development of China. Trump was able to say to the EU, if you want to continue to support Zelensky, then you fund it, and by the way, we are fine with that, so long as you continue to buy US weapons. Its not considerably different to the way, after 1939, (or indeed 1914) US imperialism verbally supported Britain and France against Germany, selling them huge amounts of arms, destroying their economies (and that of Germany), and leaving them, in massive debt to US imperialism. Only towards the end, in both cases, did US imperialism join the fray, throwing its weight behind Britain and France, who by that time were all but defeated, indeed, in the case of France, actually defeated and occupied.
The coalition of the wilting has kept the war going, like keeping a dying man alive by artificial respiration, but with absolutely no chance of changing the eventual outcome. Every month that goes by provides additional evidence of the corruption of the Zelensky regime, and repeated changes of personnel within it. But, as the saying goes a fish rots from the head, and the head in Ukraine, remains in place. As with Iraq and other such adventures, billions simply disappears. Large numbers of fighting age Ukrainians have fled to avoid the high probability of dying in the service of NATO imperialism, in a hopeless war against Russian imperialism. In part, that is only sustained on the basis of a continual repetition of the lie that Russia seeks to occupy the whole of Ukraine. If that were Russia's ambition, it would represent a huge overestimation of its own capabilities that nothing in the last few years could validate. It would simply destroy Russia. In the meantime, Trump's colonial adventure in Venezuela, and his promises of further such adventures in Colombia, Panama, Greenland, Cuba and so on, simply validate the arguments put forward by Putin (and similarly Xi) that all the claims about NATO being a purely defensive, peace-loving military alliance were bullshit, and that its expansion up to Russia's borders was far from benign.
As Irish Marxism has also rightly pointed out, the corollary of this, the creation of a multipolar world, i.e. of multiple imperialist blocs, is not any great advance for the working-class. Only if you adopt a moralistic, “lesser-evilist” approach, in which you continually hitch your wagon to some latest, new hope could you imagine that the interests of the global working-class is served by the rising power of Eurasian imperialism, or EU imperialism, as an alternative to US imperialism. The loss of hegemony for US imperialism, globally, inevitably leads to its consolidation in the Americas.
Similarly, however, Russia has been able to consolidate its position in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the brief adventure of Ukraine into Russia, lasted all of a few months, before being rolled back, at great expense to the Ukrainian military, whilst Russia, undistracted by it, simply took advantage of Ukrainian elite forces being tied up in that adventure, to press forward towards Pokrovsk and so on. Trump seems to understand the reality in a way that social-democrats and social-imperialists do not, which, given the moronic nature of Trump, says a great deal about the intellectual inadequacy and delusional state of those social-democrats. When Trump told Zelensky, “You have no cards”, he was absolutely right. The only cards that Zelensky and Ukrainian imperialism had were those stuffed into his hands by western imperialism, and even with them, they were inadequate.
In the end, Ukrainian imperialism could only win against Russian imperialism if, in addition to the provision of those weapons, it also had the supply of soldiers to use them. It did not, but Russia, as in the past, has been able to continue to draw on its own resources, as well as drawing in forces from elsewhere. The only way that could have changed is if NATO had put large numbers of its troops into Ukraine, as well as the masses of weapons. NATO does have significant numbers of troops in Ukraine, particularly special forces, and the water is continually tested by European governments for the appetite to send openly much greater numbers of European workers to fight and die in Ukraine. So far, the working-class of Europe has shown no desire to do so, which would be an inevitable rapid march towards a new pan-European war, and inevitable descent into global thermonuclear destruction.
Trump has essentially signalled that he is reconciled to the idea of a return to the days prior to the hegemony of US imperialism on a global scale, to a multipolar world. Trump is stating openly, in what his mafia regime now describes as its “Donroe Doctrine”, that he is abandoning Europe and Ukraine, but demanding the right to exercise absolute control over the Americas, including Canada and Greenland. The EU coalition of the wilting cannot save Ukraine, even as it bankrupts itself in trying to do so. It is only a matter of time, before they openly admit that, and join with Trump in pressing Zelensky to sue for peace with Putin, on the basis of ceding Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. At that point, the “stab in the back” narrative will come to play in Ukraine, with Zelensky removed, and the likelihood of a far right, nationalistic regime based around the Right Sector/Azov Battalion seizing power. But, they have no solution either.
Ukraine, then, faces a difficult period ahead for decades, in which, to survive, it will have to cede control over much of its resources to foreign imperialist powers be that US imperialism, EU imperialism, or Chinese imperialism.
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