Trump's Brexit

Trump was a big supporter of Brexit. Those behind Trump, such as Steve Bannon, built a powerful international organisation dedicated to spreading the ideas of petty-bourgeois nationalism, facilitated by their access to various maverick billionaires. Some of that also came from Russia, along with the use of teams of people and bots intervening in elections, facilitated by organisations such as Cambridge Analytica, to target voters, and swing elections in favour of these reactionary petty-bourgeois nationalist ideas. The trouble was that, as Brexit showed clearly, winning an election or a referendum did not change the underlying reality, it only meant that it now had to be faced squarely.

Farage could gloat, as he stood on numerous occasions alongside Trump, but, having won the referendum, with the support of Boris Johnson and others, it didn't change the fact that there was no majority in parliament for it, and, indeed, no majority of voters either. Only 37% of the electorate actually voted for Brexit, and that was on just one day, with every subsequent poll showing a clear majority in favour of remaining in the EU, and, now, of re-joining the EU. For four years after the Brexit vote, the minority of Brexit supporting MP's, could not get a deal through parliament.

Another reason for that was that all of the delusional talk about EU countries rushing to do a deal with Britain, was shown to be a load of tosh. The idea that the EU needed Britain more than Britain needed the EU was shown to be hogwash, and when it came to the question of Britain doing deals with the rest of the world, the reality was again exposed with hogs playing a part again, in Liz Truss's hilarious speech at Tory conference, about selling pork to China. In the end, Boris Johnson could only get a withdrawal agreement with the EU that did not amount to a no deal, which would have been devastating for Britain, by basically capitulating all along the line to the EU. Thar involved agreeing to abide by its rules and regulations, so as to retain access to the EU single market, and keeping Northern Ireland inside the EU single market and customs union, so as to avoid a border with the Republic, and instead, placing the border down the Irish Sea, between Northern Ireland and Britain.

But, having eventually, obtained this Brexit in name only, which was the worst of all worlds, apart from a devastating no deal option, the idea that Britain was somehow going to do lucrative deals across the globe was also exposed. The Tories kept telling us that deals were being negotiated as they spoke, but day after day, week after week, month after month, they failed to appear. Even the much vaunted deal with the US disappeared from the horizon. When deals were done with Australia and new Zealand, they were worse than the deals Britain already had with them, as a member of the EU!

But, now, we see all of the same delusions playing out in relation to the US, as Trump and his regime make all of the same claims about the rest of the world rushing to kiss Trump's arse, desperate to make a deal. Even Starmer who disappeared up Trump's arse on his recent visit, desperate to try to salvage some credibility for the idea that his support for Brexit gave Britain some privileged position, has had to face the reality. In a recent comment, Reeves has had to admit that maintaining Britain's trade relation to the EU is more important than its trade with the US, and the fact is that there is a clear contradiction between the two.

If Britain does a deal with the US to allow in chlorinated chicken, hormone treated beef, and other such crap, which would be detrimental to British consumers, it would also, mean it would cut itself off from Britain's main trading partner, the EU, because all of those things would conflict with EU standards and regulations. Currently, Brexit has caused its trade with the EU to fall significantly, just as a result of all of the increased costs, delays and red tape that it brought with it, it has reduced GDP by around 4%, and is costing Britain around £40 billion a year in cost taxes. But, if it cut itself off from the single market even more, by doing a deal with the US, the effect would be even more immediately damaging.

And, now, all of those same delusions put forward by the petty-bourgeois bourgeois nationalists, in respect of Brexit, are playing out even in relation to the US itself, despite its own huge internal market. Trump's regime has found that, big as it is, the US economy is not an island. It depends on trade with the rest of the world, including with its neighbours in Canada and Mexico. Having claimed that the rest of the world was beating a path to Trump's ass, and his inner circle, despite all of the same claims seen during Brexit, that new trade deals were about to be signed any day now, the reality is that no new trade deals have materialised.

The reality is that, although the US depends on China for a large part of the manufactured goods that appear on the shelves of its stores, such as Wal-Mart, the US accounts for only 15% of China's exports, and merely 2.5% of Chinese GDP.  As the US has cut itself off from the rest of the global economy, as a result of its tariffs and trade wars, China is the one that has been able to fill the resulting void, doing trade deals with others, stepping in with soft power, where Trump's cuts to USAID, have led to its isolation and so on.  In other words, all of the damage done to Britain by Brexit, is now being done to the US, as a result of Trump's own version of it, but on a much larger scale.