Prediction 1 – Countries obtain herd immunity long before the widespread roll-out of vaccines.
Well, that was certainly wrong in relation to Britain. Its probably wrong in relation to much of Europe, Asia, and North America. With the supply of vaccines to millions in poorer countries, however, its not clear whether it will prove correct or not.
There are two main reasons that the prediction was wrong in relation to Britain and other developed economies. Firstly, most developed economies introduced measures of lock down, of one sort or another, and those continued from early in 2020, through to the present, in one form or another. That meant that the spread of infection was slowed considerably, and, given that the development of herd immunity depends upon the virus being spread rapidly amongst the population, it directly prevented the rapid development of natural herd immunity.
Had a policy of focused protection been implemented in early 2020, as advocated by the Great Barrington Declaration, then a large degree of natural herd immunity would have been developed, cost-free, and safely, long before vaccines were rolled out. But, that did not happen, and the consequence was at least three fold. Firstly, by not focusing protection on the 20% of the population actually at risk from the virus, i.e. the over 60's and those with defective immune systems, tens of thousands of such vulnerable people died or suffered serious illness, which should have been avoided. Around 95% of deaths of people with COVID have, therefore, been of people in this particular group.
Secondly, by not focusing protection on the vulnerable, herd immunity was not developed free and safely amongst the rest of the population, which meant that the threat from the virus persisted for much longer than would otherwise have been the case, and given that the chosen route for dealing with that threat was via lockdowns, it meant that society had to remain locked down for a much longer period than otherwise would have been required. That had an inevitable cost, in itself, in terms of lost production, and of damage to the health and well-being of millions of people, unable to leave their homes, to obtain required medical treatment, suffering deprivation and so on, the consequences of which will persist for many times longer than will the effects of COVID. That has been true even more for the least well off in society, and more so still for the poorest countries, and people in the world, where levels of poverty, and malnutrition have soared.
Thirdly, because herd immunity was not developed quickly, and so the virus was at large for a longer period of time, it had the opportunity to mutate, to a greater degree, meaning that new strains of virus could develop that might not be so susceptible to vaccines. By restricting the opportunities for the virus to spread, it favoured those mutations, which were more virulent, and so able to spread in spite of the restrictions placed in its path. Omicron is an inevitable consequence of the mutations that policies of lock down, and other restrictions on the spread of the virus favour, via the process of natural selection.
The other reason that the prediction was wrong, at least in respect of Britain and other developed economies, is that capitalism, again, proved itself to be an incredibly inventive, productive, and flexible mode of production, which continues to develop technology and the productive forces at a very rapid pace, and so to demonstrate its progressive nature. That is illustrated by the fact that not just one but a significant number of pharmaceutical companies were able to go from scratch to the development of functioning vaccines, and the large-scale production and distribution of those vaccines, within a matter of just a few months.
That contrasts starkly with the abysmal performance of the overly bureaucratic state apparatus, in relation to the pandemic, in almost every sphere in which it became involved, and in the degree of corruption that accompanied its involvement. Perhaps worst was the criminally negligent performance of the NHS, in Britain, which failed to implement even measures of basic common sense to protect either its own workers, or its patients. But, similar incompetence and idiocy was found in the education system, where millions of students, the vast majority of whom were at no risk whatsoever from the virus, were denied a large chunk of their educational entitlement, as schools were unnecessarily closed, whole schools and classes sent home, just on the pretext that one child had a sniffle, and so on. That is education which these students will now never recover, with a consequent impact on their future job and income prospects, not to mention the impact on the economy's future productive potential.
That sections of the Left, have, then, responded to the pandemic by demanding that the companies that responded so admirably to the tasks of developing vaccines, and that responsibility be placed in the hands of the capitalist state which has acted so bureaucratically and incompetently, speaks volumes about the Lassallean/Fabian nature of that Left, and the distance that exists between it, and the Marxism it purports to follow!
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