Review of Predictions For 2019 - Prediction 4 - Electric Cars Become Cheaper Than Petrol/Diesel Cars

Over a four year period, electric cars are now cheaper than petrol/diesel or hybrid cars. That is because, although electric cars are slightly more expensive to buy, the running costs are so much lower. The cost per mile is a fraction of that of petrol/diesel, and maintenance costs are also lower. In my prediction, I was, however, also expecting that the actual cost of buying electric would now be cheaper. That hasn't happened, but the price of electric continues to fall rapidly relative to petrol/diesel. Every major manufacturer is now expanding their range of electric vehicles. 

In addition, first time buyers of electric vehicles get a discount of £3,500 off the cost. Other incentives include 75% of the cost of installing a charging point at home, and the ability to obtain low tariff rates for overnight electricity, which is the main time cars would be charged at home. In the meantime, free charging points are being erected in many locations. Employers are being encouraged to provide them for their workers, supermarkets have a clear incentive to provide them to entice customers into their stores. 

The rate of development of technology, and the rapid pace of adoption of electric vehicles means that as production levels are ramped up, the price of electric vehicles will soon itself be lower than that for petrol/diesel. The fact that electric vehicles are cheaper over a four year period itself creates a powerful incentive for people to switch, which, as demand rises, will again stimulate additional production. 

Governments proposed ending production of petrol/diesel-engine cars by 2040, but, in fact, manufacturers will have stopped production long before then. Already some have said they will not produce any new petrol/diesel models from around 2025, leaving them producing only existing ranges as petrol/diesel. But, few people will want to buy a new car that is based on a model that is several years old. So, its likely that, soon after 2025, main car makers will phase out petrol/diesel production altogether. That will be a great contributor to the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in China, where many of these new electric cars will will be sold. 

This rise of the electric car will soon after be followed by the large-scale roll-out of self-driving cars, as technology, and, in particular, AI, develops rapidly alongside 5G, and then 6G mobile internet networks. That opens the potential for car ownership to become a thing of the past, as it becomes yet another area in which service industry dominates. Car travel will become a service in the same way that today Netflix and Amazon subscriptions have become the way that people view TV and films, rather than having to buy a DVD player, and rent or buy DVD's. It will simply be a matter of calling up a self-driving car on a smart phone, in the same way as today you might call up an Uber. You tell it where to go, and leave it, when you have done with it. Incidentally, the cheapness and convenience of this form of transport will also spell the death-knell for local bus services, and light rapid transit and tram services.

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