Farage Stuffs Johnson

Farage's decision to not stand on 317 Tory held seats tells us a number things. First, its Farage responding to his master's voice to do a deal with Johnson to get Brexit done. That is what Farage's boss, Donald Trump told him to do, in his phone call to Farage's LBC Radio Show. Trump also sees himself as Johnson's boss too. He wants Brexit, in the hope that he will be able to buy Britain, in the same way he wanted to buy Greenland. That is not even for the benefit of the US, but the personal benefit of Donald J. Trump. Trump's regime in the US is the biggest example of crony capitalism and kleptocracy the world has ever seen. The only thing that comes close to it is the similar right-wing nationalist regime of Trump's pal Putin in Russia, though we see mini-me versions of it in Israel, Turkey, Indonesia, Venezuela, Bolivia, South Africa and elsewhere. It is the use of the state by right-wing, demagogic, kleptocratic leaders to feather their own nest. 

Trump's use of the Presidency to get Ukraine to lie on his behalf and produce dirt on Biden, by refusing to supply promised military aid, is just the latest, most blatant example of Trump's use of office for his own personal gain. The undeclared alliance between Farage and Johnson is just another manifestation of the kleptocratic alliance between Trump and Putin, who are the puppeteers pulling the strings on Farage and Johnson. Both Trump and Putin want to bring about Brexit, because they want to get their teeth into the easy meat of Britain, to pursue their goal of lining their own pockets. Both Trump and Putin see Brexit as a means of separating Britain from the EU for that purpose. From that perspective, its like separating off the lone, wounded antelope from the herd, so that they can more easily bring it down, and feast off its flesh. For Trump, it means that he can personally buy up real estate in Britain on the cheap, as property prices collapse, when the Pound falls, and when UK interest rates then rise. It means that his associates will be able to make hundreds of billions as the NHS is opened up to large US corporations. For Putin, it means that the large bloc on his western flank is weakened, facilitating the expansion of Putin's kleptocratic empire, and it means that his friends amongst the Russian oligarchy and mafia, will be able more easily to move into London's fleshpots. One growth area in Britain will be of this shady underworld, and of Britain as the world centre for money-laundering, and tax evasion. 

Its no wonder that Labour has suffered a massive cyber attack, undoubtedly from Russian elements keen to ensure that the money they have spent, over the years, financing various Tory and Brexit supporting right-wing groups does not go to waste. Its no wonder that Johnson's government has made sure to prevent the parliamentary inquiry into Russian involvement in the 2016 referendum and other elections, being published. 

But, Farage's decision not to stand in those 317 seats tells us more. The likelihood is that his Brexit company could not have provided candidates to stand in every constituency anyway. Already, a number of Brexit company candidates had had to be stood down, because they were shown to be the same kind of loonies and fruitcakes that characterised UKIP, which was merely Farage's Brexit company in its previous incarnation. In fact, UKIP had some features that the Brexit company does not have. It had a semblance of actually being a party with members, even though it was actually always heavily dominated by Farage. Farage has not made that mistake with his Brexit Company. It makes no real pretence of being even a party with members, let alone a democratic party. Farage set it up as a private company with himself as its Chief Executive. It shares that feature with the Momentum Company set up by Jon Lansman, with himself as its Chief Executive. That means, in both cases, that those at its head do not have to bother themselves with things like democracy, they can simply dictate how things will be, formalising their decision by the use of rigged plebiscites of the membership, if required. 

So, when Farage decided to pull candidates from Tory held seats, he could just make that decision himself, overnight. It has caused ructions inside the party from those who saw their candidacy withdrawn, but Farage can live with that. But, what his decision does, contrary to the way it is being spun, is to stuff Johnson and the Tories even more. This is an example, of Farage, actually going against the wishes of his master Trump, whilst appearing to be conforming with them, because, as with all such characters, his main concern is with himself. The consequences of Farage's decision are these. 

In the large majority of those Tory held seats, where the Brexit company will no longer stand, the challenge to the Tories came not from the Brexit company, but from the Liberals. The Brexit company was taking votes from the Tories at the rate of 5:1, compared to the Labour votes they were taking. Johnson's goal was to stem that flow, which he did, by turning the Tories hard right, and promising to “Get Brexit Done”, including pushing through a No Deal. The Tories, under Johnson, won back the majority of those votes they had lost to Farage, earlier in the year. Now, the Brexit company still takes far more Tory votes away than the number of Labour votes it picks up, but Johnson has reduced it to 2:1. Standing down Brexit company candidates in those Tory seats makes little difference, because two-thirds of Brexit company voters say they back Johnson's deal. 

The threat to the Tories in those seats came not from the Brexit company, but from the Liberal/Green Remainer Alliance. In fact, by his actions, Farage has increased that threat. There are around 4 million Tory Remainer voters. Some of them had reconciled themselves to either another referendum, or else, at least, to a deal that avoided No Deal. But, Johnson's undeclared pact with Farage was manifest in Johnson's video in which he committed to getting Brexit done, including pursuing a No Deal exit at the end of 2020. For any Remain voters in those Tory held seats, the message is now clear – The Tories are the Brexit Party. Johnson needs that message to consolidate the hard Leave Tory vote, but in reinforcing it, he makes it all the more likely that Tory Remainers in those seats will now switch to the Liberal/Green Remain Alliance. He also makes it far more likely that those Liberal/Green Remain Alliance voters will turn out to vote, to prevent a Tory winning the seat. Finally, he makes it far more likely that Labour voters in those seats will vote tactically for the Liberal/Green Remain Alliance, to stop a hard Brexit Tory winning. 

Its necessary to consider the different constituents of the Tory vote. In large part, the core Tory vote, as with its membership, is comprised of the owners of the 5 million small business in Britain, and their families. These are the people who desperately need Brexit, in order to have a bonfire of regulations to prop up the profits of their companies. But, the Tory vote also comprises a lot of people who are working-class, but see themselves as middle-class. They are people, especially down South, who have seen their paper wealth increase significantly, as a result of the hyper-inflation of property prices, and of their personal pension funds, mutual funds and so on. Mostly, these are more affluent older people, perhaps recently retired, and enjoying the benefits of the EU, of being able to buy or rent a property in France, Spain or Italy, and the ability of free movement across the EU that membership brings with it. Brexit not only brings that to an end, but its other consequence is that interest rates are certain to rise, and that rise in interest rates will cause property prices, and financial asset prices to crash. One of the main considerations of this group of people, the hyper-inflation of their paper wealth, will reverse overnight. Those Tory voters will have every incentive to vote Liberal/Green Remain Alliance to stop Brexit. 

Similarly, in the Labour held seats, where Farage says that he will now stand Brexit company candidates, the threat to Labour came not from either the Brexit Company, or from the Tories, but from the Liberal/Green Remain Alliance, as well as, in Wales, from Plaid, and, in Scotland, from the SNP. There was never any chance that the Brexit Company could ever win any of these seats, any more than they could have won seats from the Tories elsewhere. And, the only way that the Tories could win these seats is not by taking votes away from Labour, but by Labour losing votes to the Liberal/Green Remain Alliance. In parts of the country, Labour can and will lose seats to the Liberal/Green Remain Alliance. In Wales, Labour has already fallen backwards significantly and is likely to end up in third place. In Scotland, Labour is likely to be wiped out, though so too will be the Tories, and possibly also the Liberals. 

But, in other parts of the country, for example, places like Stoke or Workington, there is no chance of the Liberals taking the seat from Labour. However, with Remain voters in those areas hostile to Labour's pro-Brexit stance, particularly where, in the given seat, Labour has a reactionary pro-Brexit candidate, then there is little difference for Remain voters whether a pro-Brexit candidate with a blue rosette wins rather than a pro-Brexit candidate with a red rosette. Moreover, many of those pro-Brexit Labour candidates, like Ruth Smeeth, in Stoke North, or Gareth Snell in Stoke Central, besides having voted with Johnson on Brexit, are also right-wing, anti-Corbyn MP's on other issues too. Labour is likely to lose thousands of Remain votes, in these constituencies to the Remain Alliance, and that may be sufficient, not for the Remain Alliance to win, in those seats, but for Labour to lose. 

Labour, of course, is using that fact to try to rally the Remain voters round its flag, on the basis of the argument that the Liberals can never win. That is probably true, but if you are a Labour Remainer, in Stoke, that still gives you no reason to vote for a right-wing, pro-Brexit Labour candidate. Still less if you are a Liberal, or Green who simply lent your vote to Labour in the 2017 election, would you do so. Moreover, in Scotland, the SNP went from six seats to 56 more or less overnight, just as between 1922-1924, Labour itself went from being a tiny minority party, to winning the General Election, and supplanting the Liberals. That is a consequence of the vagaries of Britain's winner takes all, first past the post electoral system. 

If we take the much hyped Workington Man concept, and look at elections in that seat, the latest polls put the Liberals on 5%, with the Greens on 2%. If ever there was a seat where the Liberals had no hope, and so where Remainers should rally behind Labour, this is it. Yet, even here, that 5% for the Liberals represents a doubling of their vote share compared to 2017. Add in the 2% of the Greens, who did not stand in 2017, and you get to 7%, which is nearly a trebling of the Remainer vote share compared to 2017. Given the fact of the Remainer Alliance, we might expect that the combined support would actually rise from here. Labour can easily lose many of these seats like Workington, not because the Tories take Labour votes, but because the Remain Alliance does, allowing the Tories to win, even if their vote remains constant or even falls marginally. 

That is in a seat where the Liberals/Green were starting from an insignificant position. Imagine a seat where the Remain Alliance vote, starts from even as low as 8-10%. A tripling of that vote share would put them on 24-30%. The higher figure could be enough to win in a close three way fight, where the Brexit company also takes 10% of the votes, and other smaller parties take a combined 5%. But, the likelihood is that in many such situations, if the Remain Alliance had risen to even 24%, Labour voters, particularly, the 60% plus of Labour voters that back Remain, in Leave voting seats, would swing suddenly behind the Remain Alliance, to vote tactically to ensure that the Tories were defeated. In other Labour seats, where support for Remain amongst its voters is closer to 75%, there could be an even more sudden torrent of Labour voters voting tactically for the Remain Alliance, if it was seen as rising sharply in national polls. 

That still remains an outside bet, and the more likely scenario is that Labour will lose votes to the Remain Alliance, but the latter will not win enough to win the General Election, so that the Tories would win an overall majority. What Farage has done, by standing down in Tory seats, and so more closely associating the Tories with the Brexit company, whilst continuing to stand in Labour seats, where he will now split the Leave vote, is to seriously undermine Johnson's chances of winning an overall majority. For Farage, as I set out recently, that has obvious advantages. If Brexit goes ahead, he has no reason for existence. If Brexit does not get done, he can continue his lucrative political career, and continue to be lavished with TV coverage from the Tory media, always keen to boost their ratings.