The EU Elections See Support for Right-Wing Populism Decline
In the US, the election of Trump acted as a catalyst for his opponents to organise and mobilise, particularly, the younger more radical elements. In Britain, Brexit has had a similar effect, despite the role of Corbyn in holding that back, via his support for economic nationalism. In the EU, support for the project has never been higher, already confounding the hopes of the nationalists who thought that Brexit, and the rise of right-wing populism was a sign that the EU was breaking apart. That right-wing nationalists should hold to that view is understandable, but that some on the left continue to pursue such a vision, as expressed in the idiotic notion of Lexit, is an indication of just how backward the forces of the Left have become. The idea put forward by Stalinists in the 1930's, that after Hitler it would be their turn, was disastrous then, and it is no less idiotic and disastrous today.
Of course, the conservative politicians that dominate Europe have played their part in creating the conditions that have fostered that nationalism. The response of those politicians to the consequences of the 2008 financial crash, and its aftershock in the 2010 Eurozone Crisis, is a clear illustration. Immediately, after 2008, those politicians, like those in the US, responded to the immediate crisis, by reaching for the levers of Keynesian fiscal stimulus. Economies rebounded, but as soon as they did, those conservative politicians took the opportunity to prevent any further rapid growth, and instead channelled resources into reflating asset prices.
The consequence of an exacerbation of already bifurcated global, regional and national economies was that the paper wealth of the top 0.01% expanded much faster, whilst austerity meant that wage stagnation and precarity for millions of others increased. That applied to whole national economies too, as the response to the crisis in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland too, as well as the response to the bank failures in Cyprus. In terms of a response to what was happening in the real economy, the responses of the conservative politicians in implementing austerity, at a time when interest rates were at a 5000 year low, made no sense, but in terms of inflating asset prices, and thereby the paper wealth of the top 0.01%, it made perfect sense.
The cause of stagnant wages, precarity, and in places surging rates of unemployment, was not globalisation, or immigration. On the contrary, globalisation and the attendant surge in productivity resulting from the new international division of labour reduced commodity prices, making a rise in living standards, a greater potential for capital accumulation, and rise in employment possible. Immigration, particularly resulting from the free movement of labour across the EU, meant that frictional unemployment could be reduced. The reason for stagnant wages, and precarity in some economies, and regions was actually down to the fact that instead of investing in the real economy, and in education and training of workers, conservative regimes had instead adopted policies that encouraged money-capital to go into speculation in financial assets, and property. When that model hit the wall in 2008, the response of those same conservative politicians, was to double down on that approach.
The cause of stagnant wages, precarity and rising unemployment was not globalisation, the EU, or foreigners, but was home grown conservative politicians in each country that adopted policies of austerity, and who encouraged yet more speculation to raise share, bond and property prices, making those excluded from such speculation feel even more excluded, and looking for scapegoats for their predicament.
As in the US, with Trump, it quickly becomes apparent that the right-wing populists have no real solutions. Trump, unsurprisingly has made his priority giving tax breaks for his rich friends, and getting right-wing judges on to the Supreme Court. His global trade war has already had a bad effect on US workers. It has raised the prices of imported commodities, and thereby raised the cost of living for US workers. In provoking retaliation, it has hit US agricultural producers, including many of those people in rural areas where Trump had gained most support. Trump has then been forced to provide subsidies to US agricultural producers that have been hit by the consequences of his economic nationalism, which means that taxes that could have gone to other more productive uses, are then not available. At the same time Trump has sought to reduce spending on welfare, hitting those who have been hit by his economic policy. Now, as he has closed down the US government, he claims that the fact that millions of government workers, over Christmas, have been locked out, and are getting no pay, is okay, because he claims they are all Democrats!
In the UK, Brexit has caused the value of the Pound to drop sharply, and thereby caused inflation to rise, hitting real wages. At the same time, it has caused the economy to all but come to a halt, with growth now only at around 0.1% in the quarter. That is before Brexit actually happens, and before large numbers of businesses relocate from the UK to the EU. It has seen large numbers of vital workers in the NHS and Social Care, leave the UK, and return to the EU, due to the uncertainty, and racism that Brexit has unleashed, which means not only a direct hit to those services, which are starved of workers, but will also see the cost of that provision rise sharply, as employers seek to compensate by bringing in agency workers, with the agencies charging high rates that are not passed on to their workers.
In Italy, the right-wing populists of Five Star, and the League, have shown themselves incompetent, and with no solutions. Moreover, the experience of Brexit has shown to workers across Europe that such nationalistic solutions are a dead-end.
At the same time, the last best hope of the conservative social-democrats, Macron, has himself inevitably also run aground. Not, only was it clear that his continuation of the same failed policies of the last thirty years could go nowhere, but all of those voters who recognised that, and simply abstained, meant that most of those who did vote for him, did so only as a lesser-evil compared to Le Pen. Now, they have actively turned against him, as his poll rating sinks to an all-time low. The Gilets Jaunes, may have been infiltrated by right-wing nationalists, but they will soon be seen to have no more solutions than the nationalists in Italy and elsewhere. It is up to progressive social-democrats and socialists across the EU, to provide that real alternative, which can only be an internationalist, EU wide solution.
In Britain, Corbyn's economic nationalist agenda has meant that he is marooned, isolated from the vast majority of Labour members and voters. It has meant that he has allowed leadership of the progressive forces opposing Brexit to fall into the hands of the conservative social-democrats, giving them an undeserved, new lease of life. Something similar was seen in France with Melonchon, whose nationalistic fake left programme was little distinguished from that of Le Pen, the consequence being that his candidacy split the left vote, allowing Macron to get through to the run off against Le Pen. We may see similar limitations and divisions in the period ahead. It demonstrates the need to build a new dynamic, internationalist labour movement, whose basic organisational structure from the start is at an EU wide level. The EU Parliamentary elections are a good opportunity to launch such a movement.
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