For the last
few years, I have set out a series of predictions for the year ahead,
and started by reviewing the predictions made in the previous year.
This year, I'm doing it slightly differently. I'm going to write a
separate post reviewing each of the predictions made last year, so as
to examine it in more detail, and I will be writing separate posts
for the predictions for next year in the same way, but in order to
deal with next year's predictions in more detail, I will be reducing
them to six from ten.
The first
prediction made for 2017 was,
“As
the material conditions continue to impose themselves, the political
meat grinder will rein in Trump, Brexit and right-wing populism
across the EU.”
I
would say that has been a remarkably accurate prediction. Looking at
Trump, we have seen his attempts to introduce a ban on Muslim
immigration repeatedly struck down in the US Courts. As I went on to
say last year,
“Real
economic and political power resides in cities, and the larger urban
conurbations.”
The
consequence of that has also been that the Mayors of these large
urban areas have used their power to frustrate Trump on a range of
issues, from his attacks on immigrants, to his withdrawal from the
Paris Climate Treaty and so on. And, alongside it, Trump has faced
investigation into his activities, and those of his election campaign
by the FBI, and by Congressional inquiries, and Robert Mueller,
appointed as a Special Prosecutor. Trump has seen one of his
appointees after another stand down, or be fired, whilst the
investigations by the FBI have already led to charges against several
of Trump's inner circle, and the rolling over of Mike Flynn, which
now threatens to bring the investigation ever closer to Trump's own
door, in the year ahead.
The
political meat grinder was so successful that it prevented Trump from
getting one single piece of legislation passed, of any significance,
including the Republicans flagship ambition of repealing Obamacare.
Even to get Trump's Tax Bill past Congress, he and the Republicans
have had to make tortuous concessions to special interests, although that is a feature of the US legislative process whose essentially corrupt nature, makes all of its legislation a messy hodge-podge to an extent that its a wonder that any of it actually functions.
A
similar pattern can be seen with Brexit. May tried to push through
her Brexit Bills with scant regard for Parliament, as the Tories knew
that any parliamentary scrutiny would not only continually expose the
contradictions implicit in Brexit, but would also expose the Tories
total unpreparedness for it, and would, thereby, at each stage, lead
to an embarrassing series of reversals on their part, as they were
pulled up by Parliament. It means weeks were lost, simply engaged in
the court cases defending the challenge to that approach, brought by
Gina Miller et al. The courts struck down May, in a similar manner
to the way US Courts struck down Trump. But, having done so, Labour
failed to capitalise on the weapons that had been placed in its
hands, but which I will come back to in a later post. The story has
been the same over the last year, with repeated parliamentary
struggles over Parliamentary sovereignty, in the face of attempts by
the executive to disregard it. But, the potential for a hard Brexit
now appears dead, and as Stage 2 negotiations on the Transition
Period proceed, next year, the exposition of the further
contradictions inherent in Brexit are likely to drive inexorably
towards a coalition demanding an exit from Brexit.
And,
the same has been seen across Europe. The purported threat from
right-wing nationalists and populists in the Netherlands, France,
Austria and elsewhere fell flat on its face, just as UKIP as the
representative of those same forces collapsed in the UK. The latest stitch-up between the conservatives and Freedom Party in Austria, is likely to be short-lived, and will mortally wound the conservatives. That is not
to say that those forces may not have a resurgence. It depends upon
the other political forces in those countries, and how they respond
to the changing conjuncture. As I said last year,
“Germany
and France will have an increasing interest in proposing a large
fiscal expansion, and infrastructure programme. Both large economies
need to see off the right-wing populists in their own countries, and
the danger of the EU fragmenting. Both large economies need to
prevent a meltdown of the Italian economy, and Germany in particular,
needs the EU economy to grow faster, so as to provide a growing
market for its manufactured exports.”
In
fact, as I also predicted last year, in the face of all those
catastrophists predicting the next recession, or a Long Depression,
the global economy has seen a marked increase in growth in the last
year, including a significant rise in growth in the EU. That is
particularly marked in Germany. But, even the Greek economy is now
beginning to grow, despite the idiotic policies of austerity that
were imposed on it by conservative governments, and the ECB, in the
last few years. A significant factor holding back EU growth, has
been the continued policy of QE implemented by the ECB, which acts to
keep European bonds, shares and property prices inflated, and thereby
sucks liquidity, and potential money-capital out of the real economy.
As the US Federal Reserve continued to raise its official interest
rates, and to begin to stop replacing bonds as they matured, during
the last year, and as even the Bank of England was moved to raise
official interest rates, so the ECB begins to look increasingly out
of step, and is likely to have to move sharply to get from being well
behind the curve, in the coming year.
Forward To Part 2
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