If Syriza
were to buckle, were it to form a coalition with other forces, on the
pretext of needing to form a government, to save Greece, only then
necessarily to find itself having to make compromises to stay in
government, it would rapidly disintegrate. First, significant
numbers of its MP's, who are drawn from a different mould than the
usual career politicians, would withdraw their support from the
Government, making it even more hostage to more right-wing parties,
for its survival. But, almost immediately, the Greek masses would
conclude that Syriza was no different, for all its rhetoric, to all
the other parties, and would abandon it.
There is no
alternative to Syriza to its left, and, the masses would be led to
conclude that the only real alternative to these traditional parties
is Golden Dawn, or as happened in Egypt, and as has happened numerous
times in the past, they would decide that what is required is a
strong leader to bring order to chaos. It would leave the door open
to another Colonel's coup, as happened in the 1960's .
That in
itself would pose severe problems for the EU, because such a regime
would be incompatible with its rules. The EU would find itself
having to try to expel Greece, for its lack of democracy, in a way
that would leave it no room for manoeuvre, compared with the
relatively easy matter of reconciling itself with an abandonment of
failed and destructive policies of austerity. With conflict
spreading throughout the Levant, and given the history of conflict
between Greece and Turkey, the EU would not want to allow such a
powder-keg to develop on its south-east border, at the same time that
it has conflict on its eastern border to Ukraine, and continued
potential for conflict in the Balkans, as well as fighting a growing
Islamist insurgency within its own borders on the one hand, and a growing
conservative backlash on the other.
All things
considered, ensuring that the Greek people, and Syriza know, in
advance, that when push comes to shove, the EU will write off Greece's
debts, and meet Syriza's demands, is a very small price to pay,
especially as everyone knows that ultimately those debts will have to
be cancelled one way or another anyway. Having said that,
conservatives in Europe have been very short-sighted over the last 5
years. They have themselves focussed narrowly on securing the votes
of their own core constituency, as opposed to any longer term
strategic view, based on the future of Europe. They have got away
with it, because the forces of social democracy in Europe, having
been cowed for the last 30 years, have themselves shown extreme
timidity, as the experience of Hollande bears witness. Even compared
with US social democracy, EU social democracy has been timid, and
unbelievably inept, given interest rates at 300 year lows, that would
have facilitated large scale, fiscal stimulus.
No comments:
Post a Comment