Labour to Win

That would be the bet I'd make if I were a gambling man. Let me explain why. According to latest opinion polls the Tories have a lead over Labour that ranges from 4% up to 10%. There is a margin of error of 3%. Taking the margin of error from the largest lead, and adding it to the smallest lead gives, in both cases, a lead of 7%. That also just happens to be the lead shown in the Polls of polls, which aggregates all the Opinion Polls. That would seem to point to a Tory not a Labour win.

However, incumbents always have about a 5% advantage when the actual election occurs. There are a number of reasons for that. Firstly, inertia; people tend to favour the devil they know. Secondly, governing parties tend to have more media coverage. Thirdly, they have access to information that their opponents do not. Fourthly, at a local level the sitting MP will have built up some personal following if they have been at least half decent at doing their job - over several years you must have helped quite a few people, and that information is spread through family and friends - they have face recognition, because they are featured in local papers, events and so on. The greater number of sitting MP's a Party has the greater this local, personal following can play a part.

Labour is shown as being on around 31%, with the Tories on 38%, and the Liberals on around 18%. If we add that 5% to Labour's share it comes to now 36%. but those points have to come from the other parties. I'd expect 3% to come from the Tories, and around 2% from the Liberals and other parties. That would put Labour on 36% of the vote, and the Tories on 35%. In fact, 36% is the share of the vote that Labour got in the last General Election. So, with the likely end figures being so close the odds on Labour having the most seats - which cannot be automatically deduced from the share of the vote, but its likely that again Labour would be in a more favourable position because of the nature of size of Constituencies - the odds given by bookies should be something like evens.

According to the odds I saw given yesterday, bookies are offering 5-1 against Labour having the most seats, which on the above calculation seems to me very good odds at this stage. I'm not saying that labour will win. I am saying that were I to bet, then at those odds a bet on a Labour win seems a good one. Of course, events between now and the election could change those calculations. That's the nature of betting. England's chances in the World Cup are also similarly dependent on events that are currently unknown, like the condition of Rooney's ankle. One thing is certain, professional gamblers never make money betting on certainties or favourites. The most succesful investors have been those that take a Contrarian stance, buying when there has been panic selling, and selling when there is panic buying, which is merely a version of the old mantra, buy low, sell high.

But, as I said its not a prognostication. As Tony Benn said, yesterday when asked to forecast the result, the job of a LP member is not to forecast the result, but to try to make sure its the right one.