Iran – Splits in The Ruling Theocracy

The escalating protests of last week in Iran have opened up splits within the ruling theocracy as CNN reports here . Indeed, in another report last week CNN set out the degree to which the real combatants of the last week have been not Ahmedinejad and Moussavi, but Khamenei, and Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani’s daughter even yesterday was out on the streets, encouraging people to come out today to protest in a direct challenge to the Supreme Leader. Today, Moussavi’s wife is still calling people out on to the streets.

Interestingly, and tying in to the comments I made the other day - An Iranian Revolution? - Rafsanjani is according to CNN not just one of Iran’s richest men, but one of the world’s richest men. It is becoming clear that what I said there is a large part of the reason for the current divisions within the ruling clique, the Iranian bourgeoisie can no longer tolerate the effects on the economy of the clerical-fascist regime, and in particular of the effects of Ahmedinjad. For that reason, however, it is clear that the original figureheads of these demonstrations, will temper their criticisms, and attempt to channel the protests if they begin to feel that their own interests are threatened by the mass popular movement, and in particular if, as we are beginning to see in the actions of the Iran Khodro car workers, and the Tehran Bus Workers, the working class begin to mobilise and to press their own demands and interests. It is important, that the working class be prepared for such retreats by the bourgeoisie, and that they build their own independent action and organisations.

Today could be a significant turning point. After Khamenei’s threats yesterday at morning prayers, the first reaction seems to have been to defy his call for the protests to stop. Some of the other candidates have called off their rallies planned for today, but as CNN reports the range of groups and organisations in society joining the protests is growing by the day, as is the spread throughout the country of where those protests are taking place. The protest by Iran’s footballers in Korea, in wearing green wrist bans, itself is an indication of that, and given the degree of support for football throughout the country, could itself be a powerful propaganda victory in undermining the attempts to pass of the protests as just the work of vandals or foreign agents. But, the regime has reportedly stationed hundreds of armed police with machine guns ready to meet the protesters. Is that just a show of force, to try to face down the protest? Possibly. If not it is a big gamble. Opening fire on a peaceful demonstration of thousands of people, possibly led by Moussavi or Rafsanjani’s daughter would effectively be a declaration of Civil War. Moreover, Rafsanjani himself, who has a powerful position, as head of the Assembly of Experts – not to mention the power that always comes to those who have the kind of wealth that Rafsanjani has – is also reported to have his own military support within the Revolutionary Guard.

Either way, it demonstrates the need for workers to develop appropriate tactics. Workers strength lies not in the streets, but in the factories and in the workers districts. It is important to begin to develop Factory Committees, which can act to begin to impose workers interests and workers control in the factories and other workplaces. But, such committees will need to link up in each area to support each other, as well as linking up with workers neighbourhood committees that can begin to discuss in a truly democratic way the solutions to their problems. And, if the regime is stepping up its level of violence, the workers must be ready to meet it with their own. Its necessary to begin to develop workers militia under the democratic control of these Councils. Workers in the arms factories should begin to arm the workers so they can defend themselves.

One of the problems, in a country like Iran, is the level of militarisation of the society. But, in such societies the troops are often largely drawn from the peasantry, whilst the officer corps are drawn from the middle classes. The fact, that it is in the countryside where a large reservoir of reactionary support for the regime resides can be a problem in that respect. It is what makes it crucial that the workers find ways of relating to the needs of the peasants and rural poor. But, all armies always have links to the workers too. Usually, those fulfilling technical roles, engineers and so on, come from the ranks of the workers, and these sections have a vital role in winning over the armed forces to the revolution. That was the role that this section of the armed forces played in the Kronstadt Garrison, and elsewhere in 1917 in Russia, in winning the troops over to the revolution. Given the size of the armed forces in all its varieties, it is inevitable that individual troops will have family ties to those out on the streets demonstrating. That is always one of the first things to cause the troops to waver and then to crack. I remember back in 1974 during the Miners Strike when things were getting to a stage where it was being discussed to bring the troops out to break the strike, and when their were rumours of a military coup. Even with Britain’s professional army, I remember talking to a young squaddy from a mining area who said that if the officers told him to open fire on the miners as far as he and many of his comrades were concerned it would be the officer that got the first bullet.

But, workers cannot rely on the troops coming over. In fact, their own organisation, their own strength is the best means they have of bringing that about. If the protesters back down today, they have probably lost for now. However, this is just the latest in a series of protests against the vile clerical-fascist regime in Iran. If this one fails there will be more. No fascist regime can last for long, precisely because of its function in trying to repress the vast majority of society. This one will go sooner or later, just like all the others have done. We should do all we can to help the Iranian workers get rid of it sooner rather than later.

In a footnote, that should also be a lesson to all those – often the same people who supported Ahmedinejad and the other reactionaries as some kind of “anti-imperialist” friend of the workers – Hugo Chavez, has demonstrated his real politics by coming out in support of Ahmedinejad, and against the Iranian workers. That should tell the Venezuelan workers all they need to know about the bourgeois politics of Chavez. Socialists in the PSUV, should put forward motions of condemnation of Chavez, and motions at the least calling for his censure and a public retraction by him of these statements, or better still calling for his expulsion from what is after all a Worekrs’ Party!