Wednesday, 9 March 2022

Biden Turns To More Dictators To Save His Skin

In the 1930's, when social-patriots argued that socialists should form a Popular Front with "democratic imperialism" to fight the greater evil of fascism, Trotsky pointed out that, for imperialism, democracy and fascism are simply two different masks that it adopts or discards according to whichever best met its needs at the time.  Imperialism/capitalism is not committed to democracy, and the wars it fights are never to replace fascism with democracy, which simply gives it a pretext.  Democratic capitalist regimes adopt Bonapartist and dictatorial measures, in the course of wars, and can go from democracy to fascism themselves during the course of wars, and of course, "democratic imperialism" allies with dictatorships and fascism itself to fight others.

NATO has the dictatorship of Erdogan, in Turkey as a permanent member; its members states have close relations with the brutal regime of Duterte in Indonesia, whose goods routinely murder political opponents; they have close economies relations, and military alliances with the feudal Gulf monarchies that stone women for adultery, behead opponents, as well as kidnapping journalists before dismembering them while they are still alive!  In the 1930's, as Trotsky pointed out, the same "democratic imperialism", they claimed it was fighting for freedom and democracy against Hitler and Mussolini, was at the same time, holding millions of colonial slaves captive, deprived of basic human rights.  In more recent times, this hypocrisy was summed up in the mantra used by imperialism, to justify its alliances with all sorts of unsavoury rulers, as "he may be a bastard, but he's our bastard."  Nothing has changed, when it comes to imperialism, and its wars, whether shooting wars or economic wars, as their starter for 10.

The economic war that the US has been waging against Russia and China, and at a lower level against the EU, which is its main competitor and real target, has blowback.  It increases costs, and in an inflationary environment, in which the vast oceans of liquidity - much of it in Dollars as global reserve currency - can simply be sucked into circulation, enabling those higher costs to be translated into higher prices, which then become second round higher costs, wages and so on, which then creates further rounds of inflation, that poses problems for central banks, as well as for states who see their own expenditures rise, meaning their borrowing rises, which puts upward pressure on interest rates, which then causes asset prices to crash.  Given that the global ruling class owns all its wealth in the form of these paper assets, much of it relating to US based paper assets, that is a significant problem.

The immediate problem facing Biden, however, is that his economic war against Russia has pushed up oil and gas prices phenomenally.  Back in 2014, describing the way, the normal process of the long wave was unfolding, as high primary product prices had driven a new round of exploration and development, I said that oil prices would never again go over $100 in 2014 prices.  In the last few days, they have hit $140 and could hit $200 by the end of the month.  But, that is entirely due to Biden's economic war against Russia, which has constricted the supply of oil on to global markets, artificially.  Given the increased capacity for oil production from new technologies, from fracking and so on, together with the more efficient use of oil, due to new technologies, and given that oil is being replaced as a source of energy production in power stations, and in vehicles, the argument that oil should not go above $100 remains valid.  Its current price is entirely down to Biden's economic war.

In the US, petrol prices have hit their highest level ever.  That is bad news in a country where people's views on "freedom", are inextricably linked to their ability to get into their gas guzzling cars, and drive anywhere they choose in the country, whenever they choose.  It is a problem in a country that depends upon goods being transported long distances by truck, and everyone can see, in an election year, that the problem is entirely one created by Biden and his economic war.  He's tried in typical bureaucratic manner to deal with it, in the past, by releasing oil from the US Strategic Reserve, but that barely touched the surface, and simply means storing up the problem for the future.

Now, Biden is responding by pleading with the dictators in Venezuela and Iran to come to the aid of the US economy, by pumping more oil and supplying it, to make up for the oil that the US is trying to stop flowing from Russia!  In other words, in order to implement an economic war (against Russia) whose pretext is the dictatorial nature of the regime and its invasion of Ukraine, Biden is turning to other dictators whose regimes the US has already imposed sanctions, with the promise that if they help him, those sanctions might be lessened.  If ever their was an example of the lunacy of the policy of "lesser-evilism" that might be it, though closely matched by the former US policy of dealing in secret with Iran, in order to raise funds to supply arms to the Contras in Nicragua

In terms of dealing with Iran, it is particularly hypocritical, given that one reason the US imposed sanctions on Iran was its role in military interventions in Syria, and other parts of the Middle-East.  So, it deals with Iran, promising to lessen its sanctions in part introduced because of its expansionism, in order to get lower oil prices for the US, that have been caused by Biden's economic war against Russia, taking part on the pretext of Russia's invasion of Ukraine!  But, more than that, however, you describe the kleptocratic regime of Putin, in Russia, it is one based upon capitalist production, and the rule of the bourgeoisie.  It is modernist in outlook.  But, the same cannot be said about the regime in Iran.  It is not modernist in outlook, but decidedly mediaevalist, based upon the clergy and landlords.  Yes, it has large-scale capitalist production, as its forced to do, in a world where such production dominates, but that simply illustrates the contradiction residing at the heart of the regime.  In terms of a class analysis of the state, Iran would have to be described as reactionary as against Russia, or any other bourgeois state.

Yet, Biden is prepared to deal with that reactionary state, and, thereby, to facilitate its survival, simply in order to obtain some very short term benefit, in reducing petrol prices in the US, whose current levels are likely to cause Democrat candidates to get slammed in this year's elections, opening the door once again to the Trump Party.  This is the deplorable state that social-democracy has sunk into, and unfortunately, significant sections of the Left have sunk along with it. 

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