Prediction 5 – Trump Indicted
The noose is tightening around the neck of Trump and his cronies. Many of them, in the US, were already indicted, and some imprisoned, even while he was President. His actions in pardoning some, and seeking legal opinion on being able to pardon himself for any future convictions, shows both that he thinks he has something to worry about, and that he anticipates the state moving against him.
The way the state, via its investigative and judicial organs operates in these matters is to collect the data, and testimony of the small fish, who are offered deals to spill the beans on the bigger fish, and for the US state, the biggest fish of all, is Donald Trump. He is the figurehead of the populist movement that has been a thorn in its side for the last decade, or more, representing the interest of the petty-bourgeoisie, against it.
Dozens of investigations continue into those connected with Trump and his organisation, both those inside the US, and those connections that spread across the globe, to Putin in Russia, and numerous other right-wing populists throughout Europe, Asia, and Latin America, some in government, and others leading large insurgent movements, again within or on the fringes of existing large conservative parties. The connections between Trump, and the Brexiters in Britain are a well known example, as are the connections between Putin, and the Russian kleptocracy with the Brexiters.
The movement against Trump has not been as rapid as anticipated, for the same reasons that, although the prediction that populism would be put in retreat was confirmed, it did not go into such a rapid retreat as expected. The US state acted promptly to move against the fascists involved in the January 6th abortive coup attempt, and undoubtedly, they will have gathered large amounts of useful information for subsequent use, as well as having turned many of those involved to become informers and agents within their ranks. It has said all those involved, running into thousands, will be brought to book. But, there are innumerable other actions being taken against those involved in backing Trump, and right-wing populism, many of which do not rise above the radar of the mass media. Those actions comprise a combination of both criminal and civil actions.
In relation to the latter, the most prominent action is that against Trump, his family, and business for fraud and tax evasion. Remember that it was on a charge of tax evasion that Al Capone was eventually imprisoned, and not all of his other activities. And, now the New York Attorney General, Letitia James, has subpoenaed Ivanka and Donald Trump Jnr. "in connection with an investigation into the valuation of properties owned or controlled by Donald J. Trump or the Trump Organization,".
We have already seen Trump consigliere, Steve Bannon, indicted in the US, and we have also seen the release of the Trump dossier, in Britain, by former MI6 officer Christopher Steele, which should be seen as the opening salvo of action by the British state against Trump's associates, here, particularly those involved in all of the dodgy dealings over the financing of the Brexit campaign and so on.
As NBC describe, James also wants to subpoena Trump himself, as well bringing a civil suit against Trump's company, in addition to it already assisting in a criminal action by the Manhattan District Attorney, in relation to alleged tax fraud at the company. In addition to piling the pressure on to Trump, his family and organisation, such actions themselves act as huge fishing expeditions by the state, enabling them to investigate far and wide, and to gather large amounts of information to be used in future actions on separate criminal charges, as well as prising out of the woodwork all of those associated with those activities that have so far escaped the public gaze. A look at the way the actions against Trump's friend, and paedophile Jeffrey Epstein has metastasised, is illustrative.
In the last year, Biden's incompetence has been manifest, as well as the need to completely restructure the Democratic Party. A split in the Republican Party also seems inevitable as its traditional conservative element seeks to immunise itself against what has become the Trump Party. Dick Cheney's daughter, Liz, has provoked the ire of Trumpists by breaking ranks and becoming Vice-Chair of the House Select Committee on the January 6th Attacks, investigating all those involved in the abortive coup attempt. Part of the reason for Biden back pedalling in dealing with Trump and his supporters has been concern that any such action would be seen as politically motivated, enabling Trump to use that to mobilise his base in the run-up to the mid-term elections later this year. Biden was even encouraged to drop charges against those involved in the January 6th abortive coup. Any such action is suicidal, and would only embolden the fascistic elements. After the mid-term elections, no such argument will be viable, and Biden's soft-pedalling, and caution is likely only to see the Trump Party make gains in those elections at the expense of the Democrats.
That could further hamper Congress engaging in its own investigations in to Trump, and the events of January 6th. etc. It should act to spur the progressive social democrats within the Democratic Party to speed up those hearings and investigations, and to blow through the attempts at stalling being used by Republicans in Congress. But, it also means that the action against Trump and his supporters would all the more fall to the permanent state apparatus. That is why I expect all of the current legal cases against Trump's periphery to be stepped up during this year, creating the basis for an indictment of Trump himself before the year is out.
In Britain, we have a clear dog in this fight, because whilst not at all having any faith in the US or any other capitalist state, and not at all looking to it to act on our behalf, an indictment of Trump, and the exposure of all those associated with him, including all of the populists, the Brexiters and so on, in Britain, would greatly strengthen our position against those reactionary forces. The US state will not act against Trump and his supporters, on our behalf or on behalf of some abstract “national interest”, but on behalf of the US ruling class. It is simply the fact that, in this particular case, the interests of the ruling class and of the working-class are aligned.
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