Today, MP's will almost certainly vote to take control of the Order Paper tomorrow, for the purpose of passing legislation saying that if Johnson does not get approval for a Brexit deal by October 19th (date of the EU Council Meeting) then he must ask the EU for an extension until January 2020. Yesterday, Johnson made it clear that “he” would do no such thing. Johnson has said that if MP's vote to take control of the Order Paper tomorrow, the government will put a motion to parliament to call a General Election for October 14th. Tony Blair has said voting for it would be an elephant trap; some Blair-rights, Liberals and others have agreed, warning that Brexit must be postponed first. Some pundits have suggested that, if parliament does not give the two-thirds majority for a General Election, Johnson will be stuck, and have to ask for an extension. They are very, very wrong. Johnson has a nuclear option, under such conditions.
As I wrote this morning, Blair, the Blair-rights, and the Liberals have their own ulterior motives for not wanting Labour to go for an election before Brexit is stopped. Their main concern is to stop Corbyn getting into Downing Street. With Corbyn and Labour now committed to stopping Brexit, with the Liberals having disgraced themselves by refusing to back Corbyn as caretaker Prime Minister, in favour of trying to boost their own electoral position, the best hope that Labour has of winning an election is by mobilising the same coalition of forces it did in 2017. The only hope of stopping a Tory government, as Johnson collapses the Brexit Company vote, is if there is a single, solid, anti-Brexit option. The only real such option will be to Vote Labour.
Even if Labour were to fail to win under such conditions, which has been made more likely by Corbyn's disastrous stance over the last three years, it would mean they would take no blame for the catastrophe of a No Deal Brexit that Johnson would have to push through. It would mean that, as his government collapsed ,within weeks, as a result of the chaos that a No Deal Brexit would bring with it, a Corbyn led Labour Party would be poised to walk into Downing Street, to take over, to pass retrospective legislation cancelling Brexit, and to negotiate staying in the EU.
The Blair-rights, Liberals and various pundits claim that, by denying a two-thirds majority to Johnson, he could not call a General Election, so that, if parliament passes legislation requiring the Prime Minister to ask the EU for an extension, if no deal is reached by October 19th., then this would bind Johnson's hands, and he would have to comply. Nonsense. Johnson has already implemented a bloodless coup to suspend parliament for five weeks, to prevent discussion of and prevent a No Deal Brexit. He has tightened down on party discipline, threatening rebel MP's with deselection, though as I wrote, yesterday, that is as much an empty threat as is the threat of a No Deal Brexit. There are reports that the government has also threatened to withdraw ID cards from rebel MP's, which appears to be ultra vires. It would be a mistake to think that a Bonapartist Johnson government, already appealing over the heads of parliament to “the mass” would not simply ignore parliament. As the saying goes its easier to get forgiveness than consent, and that is the basis upon which all creeping Bonapartism operates.
But, Johnson has a far easier nuclear option than that. If parliament votes to tell the Prime Minister to ask for an extension, and parliament also votes against holding a General Election, then Johnson, having made clear that “he” will not ask for such an extension, can simply continue with the kitsch negotiations that are supposed to be currently taking place, he can wait until the October 19th. deadline, and, having failed to secure any kind of deal, simply announce that, “he” is not prepared to ask for an extension, and that, therefore, “he” is going to the palace to tender "his" resignation as Prime Minister.
He would then have simply handed over the problem to a fractious and disunited parliament. It would be up to parliament, then, to come together to nominate a new Prime Minister. Can MP's do that, with Labour clearly and correctly demanding that they will only support Corbyn for that position, whilst the Liberals and rebel Tories refuse to give Corbyn their support? With the country having no Prime Minister as of 19th October, a consequence of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, under such conditions, there would be no one to go to the EU to request an extension. Indeed, its unlikely that parliament could even come together to form an alternative government before the deadline ran out on 31st October.
But, even if it could, Johnson would have achieved his objective. His objective is to consolidate the Tory core vote, and to smash the Brexit company in the process. He would be able to rally the Tory core vote around his betrayal narrative that “he” held firm, “fighting on the beach”, and other such empty Churchillian rhetoric. It would be treacherous Labour, Liberal and Remainer Tory MP's that had frustrated his patriotic endeavours, and that would be the narrative he would use in any General Election when it was called. For Labour, that could also be disastrous. Once the threat of Brexit is removed or lessened, its ability to rally around it, natural Liberal or Green voters, will be much reduced – a fact that Blair and the Blair-rights understand – so that the chance that Corbyn could create a majority coalition disappears along with it.
Labour should not fall into that trap. Labour should vote for a General Election if that is what Johnson puts forward. If he sets a date for that election after October 31st, then that will be yet another example of his dishonesty, and drive towards Bonapartism that Labour can highlight to the electorate. But, it would then be Johnson and the Tories that would have to take full responsibility for the disaster that would ensue from that No Deal Brexit. Labour should vote for a General Election if that is what Johnson proposes on Wednesday. They should make clear that, if Johnson calls that election for after October 31st, they will immediately pass retrospective legislation Revoking Article 50, if they win the election, and, in the meantime, they should now be talking to the EU, getting agreement that, having then revoked Article 50, retrospectively, the EU, will accept it, and Britain would remain an EU member.
That is the simple answer to Johnson's machinations. In the meantime, as Johnson lurches from one authoritarian manoeuvre to another, it is vital that Labour and the labour movement step up their opposition to his coup. They should call a General Strike to stop the coup, and Revoke Article 50. Our strength resides outside parliament with the tens of millions of workers. Its time to mobilise that strength, as Corbyn originally promised to do, rather than simply playing parliamentary games.
No comments:
Post a Comment