Thursday, 28 August 2014

Why The West Wants Russia To Invade Ukraine

NATO, the EU and western governments repeatedly proclaim their concern that Russia may invade Ukraine.  Indeed, they talk as though Russia had virtually already invaded Ukraine, and use that to promote sanctions.  But, in fact, the West wants Russia to invade Ukraine.  Its actions of taking sanctions against Russia and so on have been designed to try to provoke Russia into such an escalation on the basis that if such action was being taken without the invading, they may as well do so.

The West wants Russia to invade Ukraine, because having done so it will have bought the problem, and thereby have let the West off the hook.  Having tried to pry Ukraine away from Russia, the West, as it frequently does, has promoted destruction without creating anything positive in its place.  That was what happened in Russia itself after the fall of Stalinism, when western advisers came in, promoting Austerian, free market policies that wreaked havoc on the economy.  The same policies are being imposed on the EU periphery with the same kind of effect.

In order to put the Ukrainian Humpty Dumpty back together again, far more than the several billions the CIA pumped into Ukraine to promote dissent will be required.  The Ukrainian economy is a total basket case.  In fact, its only hope of regeneration lies in its Eastern industrial heartlands.  Rebuilding Ukraine, is likely to require as much investment as is required in the whole of the EU periphery, perhaps as much as $2 trillion in both cases.  The inevitable collapse of the banks in Ukraine, and the effect on other European banks could drain somewhere between $200 billion to $400 billion.

Neither the US nor the EU shows any appetite for picking up this tab, and yet the failure to ride to the rescue means that the Ukrainian economy in the not too distant future is going to go into meltdown. That is why the government collapsed because it couldn't agree on the spending cuts required. Government employees are not being paid, the country's debts are mounting, and it can no longer get gas from Russia, which will be a major problem in a couple of months time when the weather starts to get colder.

When that happens it will not just be people in the East that oppose the Kiev regime.  On top of economic collapse will come social and political chaos, in conditions where in the West, the most organised, disciplined and ideological coherent forces are those of the fascists.  In other words, the same kinds of conditions that have led to control of the streets falling to militant fascist militias in Libya, Iraq, and Syria as a result of the West seeking to destabilise the previous regimes will unfold right on Europe's doorstep.

If the West can cajole Russia into invading Ukraine, Russia will have to pick up the financial tab, and/or it will have to be the one seen to be quashing the inevitable unrest that breaks out across the country.  If Putin has any sense, he will not fall into that trap.  And, indeed, he has no need to to do so.  He has a much better option.  Over the last few years, Cuba has built a close relation with China.  But, it has also been making closer relations with the US.  Now Russia is drawing closer to Cuba again.  Cuba has just re-opened an old Soviet era spying station, so that Russia can again listen in to US communications.

Moreover, as Russia has responded to western economic sanctions by banning food imports from the US and EU, Russia has the potential to expand its trade with Cuba, as an agricultural producer, in exchange for the oil and gas it requires.  From Russia's perspective putting its efforts into building a relation with Cuba on the US front door is a far better strategic play in response to the West trying to push the borders of NATO up to Russia, than an expensive invasion of Ukraine.

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