The EU, at its meeting in Salzburg, has called the bluff of Theresa May and the Brextremists. May has tried to bluff the EU into agreeing to her proposals on the basis of threatening them with a No Deal Brexit. She has suffered under the delusion that, at the very last minute, the EU, to avoid the chaos that will follow Britain crashing out of the EU, would give way. They won't. A No Deal Brexit will cause inconvenience for the EU, because of the chaos that will arise on its border, due to the catastrophe that will unfold in Britain. But, whereas the EU, thereby experiences inconvenience, the UK experiences a disaster. The UK accounts for only 8% of EU exports; if the UK cuts itself off from the continent, the EU will quickly find alternative markets for those exports. The EU, however, accounts for around 54% of UK exports, and up to 70% of UK exports go to either the EU, or to other countries on the basis of trade deals negotiated by the EU. The UK will find it much more difficult to find alternative markets for those exports, especially as it finds its ports and airports at a standstill, its planes grounded, its licences for a whole series of activities no longer valid etc.
May has argued, for the last two years, that the negotiations with the EU were like a game of poker, and it was for that reason that they had to keep their cards close to their chest, and not let even the British people, or British parliament, know what their aims and objectives were in trying to obtain a deal with the EU. As time has gone on, it has become obvious that this was not true, and that what was true was what everyone already knew, which is that the reason that the Tories did not set out their game plan was that they did not have one! Even now, two years after Article 50 was invoked, the government cannot even agree on what it is that it wants. May's Chequers proposals are a ridiculous fudge that led to her Foreign Secretary and Brexit Secretary resigning from the government, and which her MP's, on both wings of the party, describe as being as dead as a dodo.
The fact is that rather than playing a game of poker, a more appropriate analogy would be that she has been playing a game of Solo, but instead of her facing three other players, all combined against her, she is facing 27. What is more, rather than actually keeping her cards close to her chest, a more appropriate analogy is that she has bid Misère Ouverte, because the reality is that the EU 27 knew what cards the UK has to play, from the beginning. They know that the UK is a relatively minor economy compared to the E27, and so May's bluff of walking away with a No Deal Brexit never was a bluff to begin with. The EU 27 may prefer to avoid the inconvenience that a No Deal Brexit would cause, but not so much that they are simply going to agree to a deal that would be even worse for the EU in the longer term. For the EU, a bad deal certainly would be worse than No Deal, but for the UK, its obvious that No Deal is, and always has been the worst deal it could possibly end up with, and by a very long margin.
The only way May's threat for a No Deal Brexit could be carried out is by causing an immediate and catastrophic crisis for the UK, and whilst the Tories may be mad enough to do that, and thereby destroy themselves politically for at least a generation, the likelihood is that there would be sufficient opposition to prevent them pushing it through parliament. If anything the EU's position is hardening, despite the Tories and Tory media trying to spin EU statements in the other direction. For example, Barnier's statement about the Irish Border was spun to suggest that he was softening to May's proposals. In fact, Barnier was continuing the EU's position of arguing that May has already agreed to Northern Ireland remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market, or remaining in the same regulatory environment. Barnier simply turned the Tories magical thinking about technological solutions for the border back on them.
May claims that she could not possibly agree to Northern Ireland being separated from the rest of the UK, but that is precisely what she did agree to in March, of this year, having also agreed to that as the back stop position last December. In fact, of course, the UK does have different laws and regulations in Northern Ireland to the rest of Britain already, and that is even more the case where it suits Britain in relation to its tax havens for the rich in The Isle of Man, and the Channel Islands. This is the reality that the EU also have come to understand in negotiations with the UK, which is that the word of the UK is worth bugger all, because no sooner has it been given than the government reneges on it, and claims, oh no we didn't agree to that. What Barnier has done, in the last week, is to say to May, if you really believe in these technological solutions then apply them across the Irish Sea, by enabling Northern Ireland to remain inside the Customs Union and Single Market, as you agreed as the backstop, and simply undertake the border inspections by your technological systems for goods coming into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.
I expect, in the next few weeks, that a further element in the negotiations will be added, as March approaches on the horizon, which is that Spain will raise the similar issue of the Spanish/Gibraltar border, as Spain seeks to use its very real leverage over the issue.
The fact of British duplicity in its negotiations, and its silly attempts at bluffing when it is apparent to the EU 27 that the UK has no bargaining chips must be extremely annoying to them, and the reason why they are likely to harden their position further rather to make any concessions. The Tories got Britain into this awful mess, simply to try to resolve conflict within their own party. There is no reason the EU will bail them out of it.
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