As predicted in Part 1, when
markets opened, they fell sharply around the globe, for in Asia, as
they opened, then in the US Futures Markets, then in Europe. The
Euro fell sharply against all other currencies, whilst, as predicted,
the price of gold rose sharply back over $1600 an ounce. The Cypriot
Government, has delayed the vote on the expropriation until Tuesday,
and it looks like another Bank Holiday is going to be announced, to
keep banks closed, and stop ordinary people getting their money out
and creating a run on the banks.
In the meantime, Russia has
come out vociferously against the move. About 30% of the money in
deposits in Cyprus was Russian. Over the last few years, as the
number of rich Russians has risen, they, like the Chinese, have begun
to buy property and invest money across Europe. The Russian
Government itself had previously lent Cyprus €2 billion to help it
overcome its economic problems.
As a result of the
confiscation of their money, its possible the Russians may now
withdraw that loan, creating a new, worse problem for Cyprus. The
Cypriot Government is now talking about modifying the terms of the
expropriation, but that seems to demonstrate that the politicians and
bureaucrats that dreamed this up, are totally incompetent and inept.
Whether the confiscation is withdrawn in whole or in part, is now
irrelevant. The cat is out of the bag, because we now know that the
EU, the IMF etc. are quite prepared to openly steal people's money.
On that basis no one can feel that their money is safe in a bank
anywhere! The fact that they seem to have arrived at this deal
without checking with the Russians what their response might be,
seems to just further illustrate that the politicians are completely
inept.
So far, the Bonds of
peripheral economies have fallen, though not disastrously, and their
has been a clear flight to safety, as gold has risen, and the price
of safe sovereign bonds in Germany, the US and UK has risen again.
Any run on Spanish, Portuguese and Italian banks is not likely to be
visible in the way it has been in Cyprus, and was in Greece, with
people queuing at ATM's. That is because, with no immanent danger
that deposits in banks in those countries is posed, people can take
more time to look to where they want to put their money. With large
numbers of people across Europe now using Internet banking, the
transfers will take place electronically. We will only know how much
there has been a run on the banks, when one of them fails, or when we
get the figures for deposits in a few weeks time.
Its because of the economic
consequences, described in Part 1, that expropriation by the State is
generally a bad idea. In Russia in 1917, it was not initially the
idea of the Bolsheviks to expropriate all capitalist property. In
fact, when some workers did expropriate capitalist property on their
own initiative, the Bolsheviks told them to hand it back! The
Bolsheviks were forced to introduce large scale expropriation only
because of the outbreak of the Civil War, under the policy of “War
Communism”. When the Civil War ended, the Bolsheviks, under the
New Economic Policy, designed by Lenin, began privatising some of
those enterprises, and encouraged the growth of small businesses, and
Co-operatives, as well as the return of the market.
Again, there were good
reasons for that. In “State and Revolution”, Lenin had expressed
the view that the workers would be able quite simply to take over the
running of the state administration. But, the reality turned out to
be quite different. Within months of taking power, the Bolsheviks
found that the running of the State was not so simple, and they
lacked people with the expertise to do it. So, former Tsarist state
officials were brought back, just as former capitalists were brought
back to manage enterprises that had been taken over, and which had
fallen into chaos. In order to control the actions of these former
tsarist officials, and capitalists, the Bolsheviks then had to
introduce Commissars to oversee them. Why was that necessary? For
one one obvious reason, they wanted to guard against sabotage, but
more significantly, because the workers themselves were unable to
undertake that function! That was complicated by other political
factors. For example, the most advanced workers in Russia, were the
railway workers. They were the most skilled, the most educated, and
historically the most politically active. But, the railway workers
were also mostly Mensheviks. That was why, the Bolsheviks opposed
any independent activity by them, and why they sought to introduce
the militarisation of labour in transport under Trotsky.
But, its fairly obvious why
this is economically inefficient, as well as politically dangerous.
Its not just that you are having bureaucrats and soldiers being paid
to stand over people as they work, its the fact that under those
conditions, the people doing the work, even if they are not engaged
in sabotage are not going to work very efficiently or productively.
In fact, that is one of the problems that Soviet industry had right
to the end. One of the reasons that Fordism was able to produce such
large increases in productivity, was not just the introduction of
mass production, but was the fact that mass production was possible,
because of a largely incorporated workforce, and because it was able
to generate innovation and creativity. That certainly will not
happen where people feel that they are under threat, and where
uncertainty abounds.
But, there is another
problem too. Anyone who has worked for the Government, or been an
elected politician knows the problem. The State is run at national
and local level by the permanent bureaucracy, with politicians acting
largely as a democratic gloss. The modern state operates pretty much
in the way Hobbes had proposed. An originally elected Sovereign –
here the top State officials – thereafter appoint their
successors. The elected politicians, be they a Committee Chair in
Local Government, or a Minister in National Government, then hold a
similar position as that of the Commissar, there theoretically to set
policy and oversee its execution. But, that never happens. The real
power lies with the official who can make things work or not, and can
make or break the politician. Inevitably, the politician/commissar
“goes native”.
Cabinet Ministers and
Committee Chairs strike up a close working arrangement with their top
bureaucrat, and see their role as promoting their domain. That
happened quickly under Thatcher in the early 1980's when Milton
Friedman announced he had given up hope in her Government, because
its Ministers were doing just that. Today, Vince Cable has been
dubbed shop steward of the National Union of Ministers, as they all
seek to defend the budgets of their particular Departments.
Inevitably in Russia, after
1917, a similar process followed spreading bureaucratism from the
state and enterprises, into the Party itself.
But, there would have been
no need to appoint such Commissars had the Russian workers been able
and willing to have run those enterprises, and departments of the
State themselves. Indeed, there would have been no need to have
brought back the former managers, or tsarist officials, other than in
a wholly subservient role to the workers, as Marx described happened
with the textile Co-operatives set up by the workers in Lancashire.
This was a problem that
Lenin himself had recognised earlier. Lenin in
Capitalism In Agriculture
had described Kautsky's account of the positive role played by
Co-operatives such as that at Ralahine, as well as other
Co-operatives in Britain and North America. But, he goes on to
elucidate why such a venture would have been unlikely to succeed in
Russia.
“All
these experiments, says Kautsky, irrefutably prove that it is quite
possible for workers to carry on large-scale modern farming
collectively, but that for this possibility to become a reality "a
number of definite economic, political, and intellectual conditions"
are necessary. The transition of the small producer (both artisan and
peasant) to collective production is hindered by the extremely low
development of solidarity and discipline, the isolation, and the
"property-owner fanaticism," noted not only among
West-European peasants, but, let us add, also among the Russian
"commune" peasants (recall A. N. Engelhardt and G.
Uspensky). Kautsky categorically declares, "it is absurd to
expect that the peasant in modern society will go over to communal
production" (S. 129).”
Lenin struck up a friendship with Armand Hammer of Occidental Petroleum, who tried to attract western capital to invest in the USSR, in Joint Ventures. |
But, it was precisely these
“economic, political and intellectual conditions” that
were lacking in Russia after 1917, that would have allowed the
workers and peasants to have assumed the role of ruling class. That
indeed, is one reason Lenin looked to a revolution by European
workers to come to their assistance. In the meantime, Lenin
recognised the need to draw back and give Capitalist production a
bigger role for a longer period of time to effect the transition.
That was not just in terms of the NEP, in handing back businesses,
and reintroducing the market, but his attempts to encourage large
western businesses to invest in Russia in joint ventures. Lenin, for
example, struck up a friendship with Armand Hammer of Occidental
Petroleum, as part of trying to attract such big business.
Unfortunately, he had very little success in doing so, and after
Stalin came to power, and instituted the extreme of top down statism,
and arbitrariness, any hope of doing so was completely lost.
It is something Lenin also
recognised in promoting the development of Co-operatives after the
Revolution. In his 1923 speech “On Co-operation” - he said,
“From
the point of view of the “enlightened” European there is not much
left for us to do to induce absolutely everyone to take not a
passive, but an active part in cooperative operations. Strictly
speaking, there is “only”one
thing we have left to do and that is to make our people so
“enlightened” that they understand all the advantages of
everybody participating in the work of the cooperatives, and
organizes participation.“only”
the
fact... But to achieve this “only", there must be a veritable
revolution—the entire people must go through a period of cultural
development... But it will take a whole historical epoch to get the
entire population into the work of the cooperatives through NEP. At
best we can achieve this in one or two decades. Nevertheless, it will
be a distinct historical epoch, and without this historical epoch,
without universal literacy, without a proper degree of efficiency,
without training the population sufficiently to acquire the habit of
book reading, and without the material basis for this, without a
certain sufficiency to safeguard against, say, bad harvests, famine,
etc.—without this we shall not achieve our object. The thing now is
to learn to combine the wide revolutionary range of action, the
revolutionary enthusiasm which we have displayed, and displayed
abundantly, and crowned with complete success—to learn to combine
this with (I'm almost inclined to say) the ability to be an efficient
and capable trader, which is quite enough to be a good cooperator. By
ability to be a trader I mean the ability to be a cultured trader.
Let those Russians, or peasants, who imagine that since they trade
they are good traders, get that well into their heads. This does not
follow that all. They do trade, but that is far from being cultured
traders. They now trade in an Asiatic manner, but to be a good trader
one must trade in the European manner. They are a whole epoch behind
in that.”
But, it once again
emphasises the point that there is a vast difference even when it
comes to expropriation, between expropriation done by workers
themselves, and expropriation done by a State from the top down. The
latter inevitably comes to grief, and results in the former owners
continuing to benefit by one means or another, or else, or in
addition to, their position being replaced simply by some bureaucrat.
The former is more difficult to achieve, because it requires workers
themselves to have undergone a change of consciousness, and to
achieve it using their own strength, but for that reason it is more
stable, and transformative. As Trotsky put it,
“It
would of course be a disastrous error, an outright deception, to
assert that the road to socialism passes, not through the proletarian
revolution, but through nationalization by the bourgeois state of
various branches of industry and their transfer into the hands of the
workers’ organizations.”
But, what is the proletarian
revolution? It is not the seizure of state power, though that is a
part of it. The seizure of state power is merely a political
revolution. But a political revolution is lost unless it is merely
the culmination of a social revolution i.e. the ending of the social
dictatorship of one class resting upon its property, and the
beginning of that of the revolutionary class. The latter requires
that what Marx called the “battle of democracy” has been won,
that the workers have seen that a new form of production is possible
and superior to the existing one, and that they have committed
themselves to transforming society according to that model. In fact,
history is scattered with examples of political revolutions that have
been carried out prior to the latter transformation, and they have
all come to grief, because they have lacked the necessary economic
and social base.
Engels described this
situation in his pamphlet on the Peasant War in Germany. He wrote,
“The
worst thing that can befall a leader of an extreme party is to be
compelled to take over a government in an epoch when the movement is
not yet ripe for the domination of the class which he represents and
for the realisation of the measures which that domination would
imply. What he can
do
depends not upon his will but upon the sharpness of the clash of
interests between the various classes, and upon the degree of
development of the material means of existence, the relations of
production and means of communication upon which the clash of
interests of the classes is based every time. What he ought
to
do, what his party demands of him, again depends not upon him, or
upon the degree of development of the class struggle and its
conditions. He is bound to his doctrines and the demands hitherto
propounded which do not emanate from the interrelations of the social
classes at a given moment, or from the more or less accidental level
of relations of production and means of communication, but from his
more or less penetrating insight into the general result of the
social and political movement. Thus he necessarily finds himself in a
dilemma. What he can
do
is in contrast to all his actions as hitherto practised, to all his
principles and to the present interests of his party; what he ought
to
do cannot be achieved. In a word, he is compelled to represent not
his party or his class, but the class for whom conditions are ripe
for domination. In the interests of the movement itself, he is
compelled to defend the interests of an alien class, and to feed his
own class with phrases and promises, with the assertion that the
interests of that alien class are their own interests. Whoever puts
himself in this awkward position is irrevocably lost. We have seen
examples of this in recent times. We need only be reminded of the
position taken in the last French provisional government by the
representatives of the proletariat, though they represented only a
very low level of proletarian development. Whoever can still look
forward to official positions after having become familiar with the
experiences of the February government — not to speak of our own
noble German provisional governments and imperial regencies — is
either foolish beyond measure, or at best pays only lip service to
the extreme revolutionary party”
In part 3, I'll look at how Trotsky dealt with the question of expropriation in respect of Mexico, and how his position was based on the approach of Marx, Engels and Lenin, and had to confront the sectarians and ultra leftists.
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