Johnson Confidence Vote

The Tories are a mercenary bunch.  Even after we get the result of tonight's confidence vote in Boris Johnson, we will not know what was in the mind of each of them as they cast their ballot.  Whichever way the vote goes it bodes nothing good for workers.

There are still a sizeable number of conservative social-democrats sitting on the Tory benches, despite the fact that some committed hari-kiri in joining with Labour opportunists, with a similar death wish, when they created the vanity project of Change UK, and despite the fact that the petty-bourgeois elements that, even more, now, dominate the Conservative Associations have followed the example of the Tea Party, and Trump Party, in the US, in clearing them out, in a way that socialists could only ever dream that Corbyn and the Left might have done with all the conservative Labour MP's, after 2015.

Those conservative social-democratic, Tory MP's, rightly, see Johnson as to blame for the Brexit they abhor, because he did, indeed, give it the name recognition and charisma required to mobilise the remaining forces in the Tory Party, as opposed to those that had already gravitated to UKIP, required to divide the party, and to ensure that the media had a celebrity personality contest to focus on, between Johnson and Cameron, rather than having to deal with the actual issues at stake, or to provide Labour with any space to present its own anti-Brexit message.

But, they would be wrong to see Johnson as, himself, a promoter of that same petty-bourgeois class interest manifest in Brexit.  He isn't, and never has been.  He is simply a rank opportunist, who saw the potential to make himself the figurehead of social forces inside the Tory Party upon whose support he could unseat Cameron and take over the leadership of the Tory Party, and when, after the short intermission of Theresa May, he did so, he was both trapped into that narrative, and, at the same time, bound to ride the wave of the support of that petty-bourgeois movement, outside parliament, to election success.

What Johnson is, I set out many years ago, before the Brexit vote, before Johnson became Tory Leader.  He is a conservative Bonapartist.  Ideologically, Johnson is, himself, a conservative social-democrat.  He knows that the fate of every economy is determined by large-scale capital, and that large-scale capital is global in nature.  There is no global single market or political unit, but there is a European one, and Johnson knows that Britain cannot be actually separated from it, economically, because its trade depends upon it.  Its why, his line before the referendum had always been for Britain to attempt to simply negotiate further concessions, using any referendum, merely as leverage; its why he wrote the two essays one arguing for Remain, the other Leave.

Its no coincidence that his father Stanley has just taken up French citizenship, or that his sister Rachel was on the other side of the Brexit barricades, because as someone rightly said recently, the Johnson family is to its roots a European family, with its contributors from all parts of that continent.  When Louis Bonaparte came to power via a coup, which rallied the French petty-bourgeoisie, and lumpen elements, the reality of the measures he then pursued, were not those required by that petty-bourgeoisie, but those of France's big industrial capital, as he used the power of the state to hasten its development, much as Bismark did in Germany, and as similar elements were to do in Russia after 1861, as the US state was to do after the Civil War, and as the Japanese Mikado was to do.

Indeed, the same path of mobilising the petty-bourgeois mob, and then promoting the interests of big capital could be seen by the actions of Hitler, Mussolini and Franco, in the 1930's.  Johnson's policies of large-scale state intervention, and spending on big infrastructure projects is fully consistent with that kind of state capitalist agenda, and for all of the continued spiel about "Getting Brexit Done", the continued wrangling over the Northern Ireland Protocol shows that no such thing has happened, and that although Britain no longer has any political say in Europe, it continues to have to abide by its rules and regulations, in order to have access to the single market, upon which it depends.  Its why, at each stage, Johnson capitulated to EU demands.

So, its quite possible that those conservative social democrats in the Tory Party will take their revenge on Johnson for having inflicted the Brexit disaster, but in doing so, they will find themselves lining up with the petty-bourgeois Brexiters themselves.  Those elements never trusted Johnson from the start, because they knew what he was.  They were prepared to use him to promote their cause, but they are rather like the Strasserites within Hitler's Nazi Party, other than many of them are petty-bourgeois libertarians.  Still those like Von Mises in Austria, in the 1930's, who professed their libertarian ideals, were more afraid of the potential for democracy to enable workers to assume power than they were of the consequences of fascism, which is what led them down a path that led to the Anschluss.  And, Mises co-thinker, Hayek, in his 1940 book, The Road To Serfdom, also quotes approvingly, Lord Acton's comment, in support of a benevolent tyrant as a better defender of liberty than democracy.

"We have no intention, however, of making a fetish of democracy. It may well be true that our generation talks and thinks too much of democracy and too little of the values which it serves. It cannot be said of democracy, as Lord Acton truly said of liberty that it ' is not a means to a higher political end. It is itself the highest political end. It is not for the sake of a good public administration that it is required, but for the security in the pursuit of the highest objects of civil society, and of private life.' Democracy is essentially a means, a utilitarian device for safeguarding peace and individual freedom. As such it is by no means infallible or certain. Nor must we forget that there has often been much more cultural and spiritual freedom under an autocratic rule than under some democracies – and it is at least conceivable that under the government of a very homogeneous and doctrinaire majority democratic government might be as oppressive as the worst dictatorship.” (p 52)

Its clear that in the last year or so, it has been those petty-bourgeois elements within the Tory Party that have been Johnson's main enemy, as well as their counterparts in the DUP.  For them Johnson's Brexit deal was a betrayal, not only because of the Protocol, but because of all the other aspects, which continue to keep Britain tied into the requirements and regulations of the EU.  If they had had their way, then, despite the fact that it would have been economically disastrous, leading to immediate social unrest, they would have simply crashed out of the EU.  They would have sought to mobilise the forces of the petty-bourgeoisie and lumpen proletariat, as Hitler and Mussolini did, and as Trump attempted to do, unsuccessfully, so as to take control of the streets, and batter down any resistance.

Given that such a course is so antagonistic to the interests of the ruling class, whether they would have succeeded, any more than Trump was able to do, as the state ensured his defeat, as it mobilised against them to restore "order", is another question.  But, it is at least possible that, faced with such disorder on the streets, and the potential for the organised working-class to have then responded, the ruling class might have found itself, and its state backed into a corner.  We might now see, because the most likely outcome if Johnson is defeated, is that he will be defeated by those same reactionary petty-bourgeois forces inside the Tory Party.

If Johnson loses the vote tonight, and then is subsequently replaced as Leader, the likely replacement is going to be someone from the further Right of the Tory Party, a more hard line Brexiter.  The reality of that is seen by the trajectory of other likely contenders for the position, such as Truss, who as moved further and further to the Right, attempting to make a name for herself, as a hard line Brexiter, and opponent of the EU, over the question of the Northern Ireland Protocol, prepared to tear up the existing agreements.

War is the continuation of politics by other means, and war has a dynamic all of its own that sucks in the protagonists, rapidly driving the down a road they never thought to travel.   The step from rhetoric about scrapping the Protocol to actually doing it, and the subsequent response from the EU, and a descent into trade war, at a time of rapidly rising inflation, costs and international conflict is a short one.  As I wrote recently.  If even the rhetoric drives whoever is leader into ripping up the Protocol, with a subsequent trade war, with increasing conflict following in Ireland, and so on, the impact will again be the same as would have happened with  crash-out Brexit in 2016.

In fact, even worse, because, today, many of the effects of Brexit are already being felt in Britain with soaring inflation, rising interest rates, labour shortages, falling productivity because of the introduction of trade barriers, red tape, and so on.  Moreover, in 2016, we had a mass Labour Party the majority of whose members, and nominally its Leader, being opposed to Brexit, and for a progressive alternative.  Today, the economic conditions in Britain, are much worse, and we now have a Blue Labour Part under Starmer, that is characterised by its own opportunism, its jingoism, and attempts to appease the reactionary petty-bourgeoisie, and which, as a result of its own Bonapartist witch-hunts internally, has massively weakened its membership, and ability to resist threats from the Far Right.

Yet, its possible that Johnson may not lose the vote.  In fact, it could turn out to be in his favour.  Having such a vote now, is actually preferable for Johnson, if one is to happen.  All of the broo-ha-ha over the partygate nonsense is now probably, and hopefully behind us, as a distraction from the real politics, and reasons to be opposing Johnson and his government.  As the weeks and months pass that will fade into rightful obscurity.  But, Johnson faces a more immediate threat, and that is the upcoming by-elections in Tory seats, one in the red wall (Wakefield), the other in the blue wall (Tiverton and Honiton).

As things stand, the Tories look set to lose both, as a mounting campaign against Johnson has developed in recent weeks, much of it driven by the media, which sees a new cornucopia developing as it has sucked dry the teat of Covid.  Little of the opposition to Johnson can be attributed to the pathetic performance of Starmer, and his front bench of right-wing, also-rans.  Their lacklustre performance was illustrated by the failure to lift-off in the last local elections, as against the much better performance of anti-Brexit Liberals and Greens.  If Labour picks up votes against the Tories, it will only be a marginal shifting of reactionary petty-bourgeois votes from one to the other, as a result of current hostility to Johnson.  It will represent nothing positive or progressive, and nothing for workers to celebrate.

But, knowing that those by-elections are due in just over a couple of weeks, with very bad results increasing the potential for Johnson losing, a confidence vote now is preferential for him.  Before a war, the people are expected to rally around the Leader, and going into by-elections with a divided party, and a sacked Leader, is not something that Tory MP's would be likely to enjoy.  Some will, therefore, hold off voting against Johnson, in the vote tonight.  Part Leaders, particularly in government, always have an advantage, because of the corrupt nature of bourgeois politics, with its  careerist politicians always looking for cushy and lucrative government positions.  The government payroll is extensive, extending to more than a hundred MP's, all of whom have vested interest in not rocking the boat, and supporting the captain.

If Johnson wins the vote, he will face another period of discomfort when they inevitably lose the two by-elections, but he and his supporters will be thinking that then then will have weathered the storm, and until the next crisis, he will be secure in his position.  

But, whichever way the vote goes it spells nothing good for worker.  We need Johnson gone, but not to be replaced by something even worse.  Indeed, we need the whole Tory government gone, but not to be replaced by Starmer's, own gang of jingoists, and Blue Labour reactionaries either.   We need to rebuild the Labour movement on the basis of class solidarity, international socialism, and the self-activity of the working-class; we need to bring down the Tories, not for the limited aim of simply bringing about an election, in which Tweedle-Dee is replaced by Tweedle-Dummer, but as part of the mobilisation of the working-class itself around a programme of class struggle for our interests, and to create a Workers' Party that will truly be the champion of them.