Boris Johnson talks about an Australian style deal for Britain with the EU, as a silly code for having no deal, as he knows the latter is not popular. A former Australian PM has said, “be careful what you wish for”, saying that he does not think that Australia's relation to the EU is at all what Britain would want. But, the truth is that if Johnson and the Brexiters continue down their current path, it will not be an Australian style deal that Britain will end up with, but an Iraq Style Deal!
Iraq, like Australia, has no trade deal or other such relation to the EU. But, there are many other aspects that make it a more appropriate model of where Britain is headed than is the Australia description. For one thing, Iraq is divided violently between Shia and Sunni, in the same way that Britain is divided between Leavers and Remainers. But, Iraq has been torn apart on a wider basis than just that, with the country facing dismemberment, as the Kurds also seek independence, whilst the weakness caused allowed ISIS to establish its own regime. The same weakness saw, Turkey intervene inside the country, and along with Syria, it has become an arena for proxy wars between Russia and Iran on one side, with the US and its Gulf allies on the other.
Similarly, Brexit has torn the UK asunder. As well as the cleavages between Leavers and Remainers that reflect a class division between progressive, Labour supporting workers, and reactionary, Tory supporting small capitalists, the country has been ripped apart as Scotland seeks independence, in order to avoid the consequences of a reactionary regime in London, and so as to remain within the protective umbrella of the EU. Similarly, Northern Ireland, is being economically divorced from the mainland and forced into a dependence on the Republic, which must lead to it leaving the UK, and becoming part of a United Ireland, under the protection of the EU. Even Wales has seen a large increase in separatist tendencies, as it sees the carcass of Britain being rendered. How long before, even regions like London and the South-East, which voted heavily for Remain, and which has a close economic tie to the EU, demand special treatment, or even autonomy, so as to restore the vital links with the continent, leaving a few rump, reactionary areas of England to languish in isolation, and increasing despair, reminiscent of those areas of Iraq that fell prey to the reactionaries of ISIS?
The weakness of Iraq, following its war with the US, left it impotent, and subject to such destructive forces. It left it prey to external forces exerting their influence upon it. The main beneficiary, necessarily, was it closest, most powerful neighbour Iran, whose writ runs large over much of the country, particularly in those areas that are dominated by the Shia. But, the US, also continues to have its bases and influence in Iraq, alongside the previously stated roles of Turkey, and Russia in the North of the country. Already, the weakness of Britain, following its long war of attrition with the EU over Brexit, has seen its economy deteriorate, and its global influence decline. The extent to which it is beholden to the kindness of strangers is apparent, by the extent of its borrowing and desperation to do deals with any regime from which it might gain a few crumbs of financial comfort.
Britain has already had to concede an EU enclave in Northern Ireland, similar to the continued US presence in Iraq, or the presence of Iranian, Turkish and other forces. For all intents and purposes, Northern Ireland is a part of the EU, and increasingly being incorporated into a United Ireland, whilst simultaneously having full access to Britain too. Seeing the unfolding of this in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales must have their eyes fixed on a similar development. Already, Brexit, and the actions of the Tories has created a significant majority in Scotland for independence, and whatever the Tories say, they will be unable to prevent that snowball from continuing to roll forward, particularly when supported by the EU, who will demand that the Scots be given a democratic referendum to determine their future, under penalty of sanctions against England, if it refuses to grant it. With England reduced to a rump, it would not be long before Wales sought a similar escape, and then how long, before a prosperous, Remain supporting London and South-East, decided they were not going to go down with a rapidly sinking English ship?
Then there are the other remnants of Empire. The position of Gibraltar is an anomaly. It voted by 90% to stay in the EU. With an increasingly isolated and declining England, there will be increasing likelihood that Gibraltar will break its tie to Britain, and adopt a more rational position within the EU. Its not alone, because Britain has a number of overseas territories that act almost exclusively as tax havens for the English upper and middle classes. They will become increasingly untenable as the EU uses its influence to close down such tax havens.
There is another similarity between Brexit Britain and Iraq. Iraq's plight was a consequence of the hubris and delusions of Saddam Hussein, and Britain's plight is a consequence of the hubris and delusions of the Brexiters. The US knew that Saddam did not have large stocks of WMD, for the simple reason that the WMD he had possessed had been sold to him by the US itself, in order for him to pursue the war against Iran, a war in which he acted as their proxy. The idea that he did have such WMD, however, did give them the means of putting pressure on him, in conditions where he was no longer serving their purposes. Saddam made the mistake of going along with that, and pretending that he did, indeed, have such WMD, and so they had better not attack him. That was stupid, when your opponent knows what cards you have in your hand. Britain made the same mistake over Brexit, pretending that it was prepared to go for a No Deal Brexit that would destroy it, when the EU knew that either it could not do so, or that, if it did, it would, indeed, destroy Britain, turning it into a weak dependency.
That is the condition Boris Johnson finds himself in today. He can repeat the mistake of Saddam Hussein, pretending that Britain has cards in its hands that everyone knows it does not hold, which leads merely to it being destroyed when the EU calls his bluff, or he can decide to fold now, and retain at least some of his resources. But, we should remember in all this that he is gambling with our futures, and particularly the futures of our youth. If we had a principled Labour Party, it would be opposing Brexit tooth and nail, and demanding that, at least, the transition period be extended, if not that Brexit itself be scrapped. At the very least, we need the kind of deal that Starmer originally insisted upon in his Six Tests, whereby Britain would remain in the Single Market and Customs Union, and where the right of free movement was retained. But, Starmer is an unprincipled opportunist, who has shown there is no reactionary position he will not adopt in search of short term popularity. The TUC should be taking the lead calling a General Strike to stop the devastation to workers livelihoods that Brexit will bring, but it too, has shown itself weak and incapable of leadership.
Its time to build a new labour movement, based upon the principles of international socialism, of the primacy of class, solidarity and internationalism, in the vein of those principles and ideals advocated by Marx, Engels and the First International.
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