Boris Still Hasn't Got Brexit Done

Here we are.  Two-thirds of the year has gone, and, as I predicted at the start of the year, Brexit still has not been done.  Yes, at the end of January, Boris capitulated to the EU, just as he did several times last year, in order to save face and get some kind of deal, albeit a deal both he and Theresa May had previously rejected, a deal that is even worse than the later deal May had negotiated with the EU, a deal that puts a border down the Irish Sea, and leads inevitably towards a united Ireland, and potentially a break-up of the United Kingdom, as not only Northern Ireland breaks away, but Scotland moves inexorably towards independence too, in order to remain in the EU.  But, for all intents and purposes, Britain itself remains inside the EU, as a result for the Transition Period.  The only difference, foreshadowing Britain's future, is that it has no political input into the EU, and so of the rules and regulations by which it must abide, in order to continue trading with its largest neighbour and trading partner.

Some Tories no doubt believe their own narrative that the EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU, but it is palpable nonsense.  The EU economy is seven times that of the UK, its population also six or seven times larger.  If Britain stops trading, or even just reduces its trade, with the EU, that will cause discomfort to the EU, but it will be devastating to the UK economy.  That is why, in the end, no UK politician is going to bring that about.  Or more, precisely, there will be some hard core, reactionary ideologues in the Tory Party, like Rees-Mogg, Baker et al, as well as their outriders such as Farage, who would be prepared to see such devastation in order to fulfil their fantasies, but they will never be able to obtain a majority to do so.

They will continue to push this delusion that its all a question of brinkmanship, of waiting till the last minute, when according to this fairytale, the EU will capitulate and give them everything they want.   But, its precisely that a fairytale.  The truth is that the closer it gets to the last minute, without any kind of deal, the more frightening things become for Britain, the more it will be forced to capitulate entirely to the EU's terms, just as Johnson has had to do repeatedly over the last year.

The ideologues in the Tory party represent the interests of small capital.  As far as the world the owners of that small capital live in, there is nothing to be lost from a disastrous no deal Brexit.  They don't trade with countries outside Britain let alone have the EU as their main trading partner.  The self-employed window cleaner or gardener, the owners of the corner shop or back street garage do not look further than their current week's takings, or the economy of their local area, and they can easily delude themselves into the ideology that the problems of the national economy are all the result of greedy workers and unions, and of foreign competition, and EU laws on minimum wages, Health and Safety, and consumer and environmental protections.  But, its total nonsense, a nonsense that would only make itself felt when the damage done to the economy manifests itself in the cratering also of their own local economies, but then they will find other excuses, blaming it, as they already do, on the role of immigrants, of benefit scroungers, and again on greedy workers and unions.  They would seek even more draconian, reactionary measures in line with that ideology.

As I've written in response to Paul Mason.  The times we live in are not those of the 1920's/30's.  The Tory party continues to be an amalgam of two parties - as indeed it was when it split in 1848 over the same issues, then the Corn Laws - on the one hand, it is a party whose core membership and vote is comprised of this large mass of petty-bourgeois, of small capitalists, and on the other hand, it is a party of conservative social-democracy, which seeks to represent the interests of the owners of fictitious-capital, the financial oligarchy that owns the majority of shares, bonds, property and their derivatives, and whose fortunes, therefore, depends upon the prosperity of large-scale capital, which in turn depends on the ability of those multinational businesses to trade freely across the EU, and on the ability of the EU, as the world's largest economic bloc, to deal on equal terms with the other super powers such as the US and China.

In the 1920's/30's, the owners of that fictitious-capital sought to prevent a growing wave of workers actions to introduce workers' control over production, and had to resort to fascism in order to break up the labour movement, so as to prevent it.  Today, the labour movement is weak, there is no such drive for workers' control over large-scale socialised capital.  Rather, what the owners of that fictitious capital fear is that all of those small capitalists have captured conservative parties, be it the Tories in Britain, or the Republicans in the US, or have established insurgent parties to press conservative parties in that direction, whilst the conservative social-democrats in those parties, or in workers parties such as the Labour Party, US Democrats, and so on, have failed to provide any way forward, their policies over the last 30 years having reached a dead end with the financial meltdown of 2008.

In the 1920's/30's, the owners of that fictitious-capital had to resort to fascism, which in turn mobilised the petty-bourgeoisie on an "anti-capitalist" basis, in order to defeat organised labour, and having done so, the fascists turned on the petty-bourgeois "anti-capitalist" elements, and liquidated them.  Today is completely different.  Today it is actually the petty-bourgeoisie that is mobilising in its own name.  It really does want to turn back the clock, not just by breaking up the EU, but by breaking up all of the elements of social-democracy introduced over the last century, and which are required for the development of large-scale capital.  Its now that that the dominant section of the ruling class, the owners of all that fictitious capital cannot allow to happen.

That puts the Tory Party in a bind.  On the one hand, its electoral base, and its core membership require it to push ahead with its reactionary agenda, but the interests of the ruling-class dictate that it cannot do so.  Already, the capitalist state has done all in its power within the bounds of legality and constitutionality to frustrate Brexit.  It hasn't been enough, but again, the reality is that Boris has not got Brexit done.  Strange as it may seem, Boris may be the secret weapon of the ruling class, in achieving its aims.  After, he has continually talked the talk, taking the Brexiteers in his party with him, but without walking the walk.  There is no way the Libertarian/Anarcho-capitalists in the Tory party would have accepted the deals Boris has signed up to, if they had been put forward by May - indeed, when May did put forward such deals, they did reject them!  And, the truth is that Boris has not got Brexit done, Britain remains for all intents and purposes inside the EU, and the closer it gets to 31st December, and the calamity that a No Deal Brexit would bring with it, the more pressure will be on for them to accept any deal that Boris is prepared to sign up to.  Because, be under no doubt that any No Deal would be far more catastrophic than anything seen so far as a result of the economic damage done by the government imposed lockdown.

In this scenario, Rees-Mogg, Baker et al play the roles of the Strasserites in the 1930's, whilst Johnson plays the role of Hitler, as it played out in the Night of the Long Knives.  In other words, its the point at which the "anti-capitalist" elements, here being the reactionary "anti-capitalism" of the petty-bourgeoisie, are carved up.  It is the point at which Johnson comes out as the open proponent of large-scale capital.  The writing is on the wall already.  Just look at Johnson's proposals for large-scale capital spending on infrastructure and so on.  Such measures, which require a strengthening of the social-democratic state, of its powers of planning and regulation, all of which benefit large-scale capital are anathema to the anarcho-capitalists, who will be bound to start to resist them.  And, Johnson also knows that the future of British capital continues to lie in Europe.  If he doesn't then the dominant section of the ruling class will be quick to impress that fact upon him.

The fact is that Johnson will be forced to reach some kind of deal that either extends the transition period for another two years, or else, he will be forced to capitulate to the EU once more, reaching a deal that effectively keeps Britain inside the EU, tied to the single market and customs union, subject to the ECJ as arbiter, and so on.  In other words, he will be forced to act as a Trojan Horse inside the Tory Party, ensuring that Brexit does not get done, whilst all the time proclaiming himself as its greatest champion.