A week ago, I wrote that any politician gullible enough to trust Boris Johnson should not be in politics. Within the week, the truth of that has been demonstrated. Johnson screwed over two of the groups I had listed as in line for such treatment. First, he sold out the DUP, then he humiliated and screwed over the right-wing nationalist Labour MP's that rescued his government, by voting for his even worse deal than Theresa May's. Its inevitable that he will screw over the others listed, when the time comes. The underlying reality that leads to these contradictions and betrayals is the simple fact that what was promised by Johnson and the other Brexiteers was, in fact, undeliverable, and remains undeliverable. There is no good Brexit, and what is described as a No Deal Brexit, or Clean Break Brexit is nothing of the kind. Both of those options involve even more difficult and more protracted negotiations, after such a break, than does a negotiated deal on the basis of continued membership of the Customs Union and Single Market. For all those who are fed up of Brexit, and just want it to end, there is only one way of achieving it. That is to revoke Article 50, and remain in the EU. To do that we need to kick out the Tories, and elect a government committed to bringing that about. We need a General Election Now.
It was clear that Johnson was going to betray his DUP allies. More than 60% of Tory members see Brexit as more important than preserving the United Kingdom. Northern Ireland is a burden to the coffers of the English Treasury. Johnson and his supporters claim that he has done what everyone said could not be done, and has negotiated a deal with the EU. It is of course, nonsense. What Johnson did was to essentially just capitulate to the EU, in relation to Northern Ireland. He has not negotiated a new deal, he has just gone back to the deal that the EU originally proposed to Theresa May, but which May had to reject, because the DUP would not accept it. May made the mistake of agreeing to the EU proposals and then having to reverse herself when the DUP refused to support her. Johnson waited for the DUP to reject the proposals, and then went ahead and agreed them with the EU anyway, showing that he has cut the DUP adrift.
The various other measures that Johnson has introduced to cover over his capitulation are already exposed as idiotic and unworkable. The Brexit Secretary himself has found the byzantine procedures so complex that he even he doesn't understand them, as seen by his confusion in front of the Brexit scrutiny committee. Keen to present the idea that the proposal does not represent a border in the Irish Sea, first he said that there would be no checks on goods coming from Northern Ireland to Britain, and vice versa, and then had to correct himself and admit there would. Even after this debacle, Johnson, at PMQ's, never a stickler for detail, or even familiarity with the truth, continued to claim that no such checks would be required! But, clearly they are, because otherwise what purpose is there in any of the participants in the transactions having to fill in paperwork?
The truth of the Brexiteers claims about frictionless borders, and how all of the checks can be dealt with away from any borders, or by technology was illustrated by the tragic events in Essex, on Wednesday, when a container was found to have 39 dead bodies inside it. So, what paperwork and trusted trader scheme, or technology covered this eventuality? Those who want us to believe all this nonsense about no requirements for such checks, and that we can trust every business, every small trader that exists on the basis of sharp practices to be utterly honest and truthful, is simply lying. Its as though they are not aware that millions of small businesses are able, by a multitude of means, to avoid honest declarations over even things like VAT, or the employees on their payrolls, and so on, so as to avoid paying taxes and other duties etc. But, of course, they are aware of that. They are aware of it, because the Tory Party membership is made up of such people, and the whole point of Brexit is to remove the regulations that make it harder for these people to get away with their sharp practices, just as, in the 1980's, Thatcher go rid of all of the regulation of financial markets, so as to benefit the banks and speculators, whose end result was serial asset price bubbles and busts, the last one of which was in 2008.
It is, of course, the case that those who want to take advantage of the removal of regulations, and border checks will be the ones who do not fill in the paperwork correctly, or honestly, or even at all! Unless a revenue inspector is put in every factory throughout the country, to be actively checking what is in every package, every shipment, to verify that what goes into a lorry is in line with regulations, and is in fact, what any paperwork says is in the lorry, then it is impossible to control what moves across borders, without checks at those borders. The paperwork may say a lorry contains farm equipment, but without actually checking the lorry, there is no way of discovering that, in fact, it contains a few dozen desperate migrants. And, if and when Britain leaves the EU, Ireland and Northern Ireland would become even more significant in relation to such trade. The Common travel area between Britain and Ireland means that there would be an obvious route for migrants from Europe to simply travel to Ireland, to cross the border into Northern Ireland, and from there to have free passage into mainland Britain.
It is, relatively straightforward to identify that a container that should contain farm equipment in reality contains migrants, but what about a lorry that is supposed to contain meat pies, travelling from Northern Ireland to the Republic. It may indeed contain meat pies, but there is no way of being able to identify that the chicken in these pies was not chlorinated chicken from the US, or hormone and anti-biotically treated beef and pork, from the same source, let alone that the original animals were not fed with GM crops. The pies might claim to be made from ingredients conforming to EU regulations, but who would be able to guarantee that was the case. The EU, is currently able to do that, because it controls what comes into the EU from outside its borders, and it does carry out border checks on those things, as they cross the EU's external borders. All producers inside the EU, must produce in accordance with its regulations, and those regulations are enforced within the borders.
The basic promises that the Brexiteers gave about there being no change in trading relations between the UK and EU, were never achievable unless the UK remained inside the Customs Union and Single Market, and continued to abide by those EU regulations. But, the whole point of Brexit, for the Tories, and the millions of small capitalists whose interests they represent, was to leave the Customs Union and Single Market, precisely in order to free themselves of those regulations, both those that protect consumers and the environment, and those that protect workers rights. The basic contradiction that faces the Tories and Brexiteers, is that the only way that any continuation of trade on the same basis, let alone an expanded basis, could take place, is by remaining inside the Customs Union and Single Market, but no Tory government can negotiate such a deal, because the Tory rank and file will not wear it, as Theresa May found out.
The trouble for a Labour government is that, whilst its membership would welcome continued membership of the Customs Union and Single Market, the continued role of the ECJ, and free movement, the question then becomes, in that case, why leave the EU itself. Why be in the Customs Union and Single Market, have to pay into the budget and so on, unless you are also going to have a say in determining the budget, and determining the rules and regulations of the Customs Union and Single Market? But, the only way of doing that is to be in the EU itself, to send Ministers to the Council of Ministers, MEP's to the EU Parliament, and appoint Commissioners to the EU Commission. Labour's suggestion that it could be in the Customs Union and Single Market, but not in the EU, and yet still have a say in determining EU rules and regulations, let alone be free to negotiate its own separate trade deals is simply delusion. No organisation could allow a non-member those kinds of privileges over members.
And, the trouble for the Tories is that they have set out that they want to rapidly diverge from EU rules and regulations, so as to engage in a race to the bottom. That is why they have taken the sections on protection of workers', consumers' and environmental rights out of the legally enforceable Withdrawal Agreement part of Theresa May's Deal, and put it in the non-enforceable political statement attached to it. No one believes that the Tories, who have made a virtue out of trying to diminish workers' rights, want to establish higher standards than the EU. Britain, outside the EU, will be at a considerable competitive disadvantage. It will lose the benefits of economies of scale that the EU provides; it will lose the advantages of frictionless trade, and the higher rate of turnover of capital, which that frictionless trade provides, and so on. In order to compensate for that loss of competitiveness, Britain will have to try to compensate in other ways, and the most obvious way is by reducing standards, to cut corners, so as to cut costs. The Tories policy of Enterprise Zones in the 1980's, and their proposals for Free Ports today, are just one indication of that. It is characteristic of the Tory short-termist approach. Look at the Tories proposals in recent years in relation to housing, for example. Short-termist proposals on Right to Buy, and Help To Buy, gave them cheap headlines, but they made the housing crisis worse, and benefited those who did not need assistance in the first place. Their policy on affordable homes, was achieved again by freeing builders of the requirement to abide by the minimum standards that builders were required to fulfil on other developments.
The Tories have made clear that they want to quickly diverge from current EU standards, and the more they do so, the more it becomes impossible for them to negotiate a Canada Style Free Trade Agreement. The EU, pulled out of the TTIP negotiations with the US, because it could not bridge the gap in relation to these kinds of regulations. Even less is it possible to see that happening with Trump in the Whitehouse. The US has much lower standards when it comes to workers', consumer's and environmental rights. The EU was able to negotiate a deal with Canada, because on these kinds of issues, Canada is much closer to Europe. Unlike the US, Canada has a socialised healthcare system, similar to the UK, for example. Moreover, Canada is several thousand miles away from the EU, the kind of trade between Canada and the EU, is fundamentally different to the kind of trade relation that the UK and the EU would have.
It is inevitable, particularly given the behaviour of the Tories over Brexit, that the EU will see the UK, not as some benign trading partner on its border, but as a competitor, and a competitor that is seeking unfair advantage. The more the UK adopts a US style approach to deregulation, and minimisation of standards, the less the EU is going to offer a free trade deal with the UK. And, that poses a problem for the UK, because the majority of its trade is with the EU. So, the truth is that any UK company wanting to continue to sell into the EU, will first have to comply with EU standards, whilst now having no say in the formulation of those standards. In addition, its likely to also face tariffs on its goods being sold into the EU. Any company that seeks to sell much of its output in the EU, will have a significant incentive to simply move its operations to another EU country. As the SNP have pointed out, it will mean that many companies will have an incentive in moving operations to Northern Ireland, because NI companies will continue to be able to operate as though they are still in the EU. But, for that reason, it gives a very powerful incentive for Scotland to seek independence within the EU, and indeed, for Wales to do the same.
A Scotland and Wales, still in the EU, would become attractive hubs for English companies that export a large part of their production to the EU, without the disruption of an actual move to the EU mainland. Scotland, for example, already houses a large part of the UK financial services industry. Nothing would be simpler than for London based financial services companies, and indeed other professional services companies to relocate to Edinburgh. The same applies with fishing. By far the biggest market for UK fishing is the EU, but outside the EU British fishing will face 40% tariffs on its exports to the EU, making it almost impossible to sell profitably. The SNP have pointed out that this means that, given that Northern Ireland will remain inside the Customs Union, there will be a strong incentive for British fishing fleets to register in Northern Ireland. But, Scotland has the largest coastline, and an independent Scotland would have access to all of the waters off that coastline into the North Sea, and North Atlantic. It then would have considerable advantages in encouraging English fishing fleets to register in Scotland.
The whole of the Tory Brexit agenda is a programme of English nationalism that leads to the break up of the United Kingdom. Johnson's ditching of the DUP is part of that agenda.
The second group that Johnson humiliated and then stabbed in the back were the despicable, nationalist Labour MP's that ensured that the Second Reading of his Brexit Bill was passed. It passed with a majority of 30, and with 19 of these scab Labour MP's voting for it, they have sole responsibility for it. Had they voted against it, it would have lost by a majority of 8 votes, and Johnson's Brexit agenda would have been dead and buried, because he could not have brought the Bill back again in this session of parliament. Johnson made a point of going over to these scab Labour MP's in the voting lobbies, and thanking them for their support. He had even warned them in advance of the way he was going to humiliate them, and stab them in the back. He told them that if his programme motion failed, and it was deliberately framed so as to fail, then he would pull the Bill they had just disgraced themselves by voting for. They really are not just despicable, but pretty stupid.
Johnson had one goal in trying to get these scab Labour MP's to vote for his Bill, and that was to emphasise the divisions in Labour, and to be able to get the propaganda victory of being able to say that parliament had passed his Bill. At every opportunity, Tory MP's have made that claim ever since. It is, nonsense, because, not only has the Bill been paused, but, even if it had gone on from Second Reading to Committee Stage, and Third Reading, its likely that it would have been amended in ways that the government would not accept, leading it to pull the Bill further down the line, or it being defeated, when it came back to the House. But, that does not matter to Johnson. His focus is not on these parliamentary manoeuvres, but on shaping public opinion ahead of a General Election he hopes to win, and given the incompetence of the Opposition currently looks likely to win.
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