Rutherglen and Hamilton By-Election - Labour Shouldn't Be Too Cocky

On the face of it, Labour had a thumping victory, last night in the Rutherglen and Hamilton By-Election, with a 24% swing from the SNP.  A closer look shows they shouldn't get too cocky.

First of all, despite the thumping majority, and huge swing, Labour actually secured fewer votes, in winning than they secured in losing in 2019!  In 2019, Labour polled 18,545 votes, but last night they polled only 17,845 votes.  The explanation is the collapse of turnout, and particularly of the SNP, Liberal and Tory vote, with no doubt some votes of the latter two going tactically to Labour.  Turnout was an abysmal 37.2%, compared to 66.5% at the 2019 General Election.  That is a difference of 23,000 votes.

Given the circumstances of the by-election, with the SNP candidate having been forced to stand down, and also given the recent travails of the SNP, in general, it could hardly have been more conducive for Labour, especially given that, in 2017, under Corbyn's leadership, Labour had won the seat, with more than 19,000 votes.  Its hardly likely that these conditions will apply come the next General Election.  Voters undoubtedly gave the SNP a kicking, more than enthusiastically backing Labour, but, it has to be assumed that a large portion of those missing 23,000 votes, will have been disgruntled, or just apathetic SNP voters, who sat on their hands.  They are not likely to do so come the General Election, and its unlikely that the Tories and Liberals who voted tactically for Labour will do so to such an extent either.

So, despite the apparent size of the win, its likely that this seat goes back to the SNP in the General Election, and that applies to most of the other Scottish seats.  Without a sizeable haul of Scottish seats, its unlikely that Labour can secure a comfortable majority come the election, despite the appearance of current polls, but that is why it needs to present as favourable a picture of its likely success in Scotland, now.  The reality remains that Labour will need the support of SNP, Liberals and Greens, which given the reactionary nature of Blue labour, is no bad thing, as it means they can temper the reactionary nature of its politics in exchange for that support, most obviously in relation to Brexit.