Tuesday, 23 March 2021

More Covid Data Analysis

Yesterday, I looked at data provided by the ONS at the end of November, as a result of a Freedom of Information request, which showed that the number of deaths actually due to COVID 19, between April and July last year, was just 4,476, as against a total reported number of "Covid related" deaths, in the same period of 46,000.  In this post I look at another table (Table 2), provided by the ONS, in this same dataset, which looks at the age range of deaths of this 46,000.  It indicates why, the main actual cause of death of these reported cases, was Alazheimer's/Dementia, and not COVID.  In short, as I have demonstrated in previous posts, its because COVID 19 is a disease that almost exclusively targets the elderly.

The ONS data is presented as monthly figures for March-June of last year, and so I have amended their spreadsheet to give totals for the period, so as to facilitate analysis.  The relevant total figures are presented below.


In the top line, we have the figures for "Covid related" deaths, amounting to 46,736, which is for all age groups. On the right hand side, we have the % of deaths per group. For all ages, the figure is 46.736, which is equal to 18.3% of all deaths during this period.  The similar percentage figures for each age group represent the percentage of total deaths for people in that age group, during the period.  This gives an indication that is weighted then to the deaths from all causes for that age group.

I have added a further column, which is the proportion of total Covid related deaths that each age group represents.  What is striking, but no surprise given what was already known about COVID as a disease that almost exclusively affects the elderly, is the fact that the greatest number of deaths, 10,295, is in the age group 90+.  That accounts, for 22.03% of all COVID related deaths, on its own.  Given that just 0.9% of the population is aged over 90, this demonstrates even more starkly the extent to which COVID is a disease that affects almost exclusively the elderly.  If it struck indiscriminately, then the over 90's would have accounted for only 0.9% of Covid related deaths.  The fact that they form 22% means that they are 22 times over represented.

By comparison, the death of one baby under 1, is such a small proportion of total COVID related deaths that it does not even show up.  In fact, you have to get to the 15-19 year age group, before the number of deaths become statistically significant enough to show up in the calculation, but then representing just 0.02% of Covid related deaths.  Approximately 20% of the population is aged under 19, so that if deaths were spread evenly, 20% of COVID deaths would be expected in this age group, as against the 0.02%.  In other words, this age group is 1,000 times under represented in relation to COVID deaths.

This same level of under representation is seen in all the other age groups up to those over 60, but its clear that the main overrepresentation is amongst the older age groups, even compared to the over 60's.  

The myth that has been purveyed that COVID19 is some kind of existential threat to society is completely false, therefore.  It is a disease that almost exclusively targets the elderly.  Even, amongst the elderly, the data produced yesterday, shows that the number of deaths ascribed to COVID in the media is grossly exaggerated, with only about a tenth of the deaths described as being "Covid Related", actually being primarily due to the virus, with the other 90% being primarily the result of other previous underlying ill-health conditions.

This also explains why so many of those contracting COVID have done so whilst being in hospital for these other illnesses, or else being in care and nursing homes, where an almost criminal lack of protection has been provided to them.  Indeed, had the lack of protection against infection occurred elsewhere, its likely that a social outcry would have occurred, with demands for a full Public Enquiry, and those responsible being brought to book.

That has not happened, because the facts of COVID being a virus that almost exclusively targets the elderly, and the fact concomitant to that, that the majority of lethal infections have arisen in hospitals and social care, do not fit the narrative of COVID being some kind of existential threat to the whole of society irrespective of age.  It does not fit with the depiction of the NHS as the saviour of society as against the reality that it has been the main superspreader of the virus, certainly amongst those that have subsequently died from it.

Nor does it fit with the failure then to have called the NHS to book for its failure to take even basic measures of common sense to prevent the spread of the virus amongst the elderly and vulnerable placed in its care, whilst tens of millions was spent on useless Nightingale hospitals.  That failure has gone hand in hand with the fact that the media and politicians have focused on a completely bogus target.  Instead of protecting the elderly and vulnerable, there has been a complete waste of time locking down social activity, and locking out workers from employment.  Indeed, not just a waste of time, but an actual undermining of the capacity to respond to the virus itself, by shifting attention from where it should have been, and by decimating the economy required to deal with the actual effects of the virus.

Instead of focusing on the failures of the NHS and welfare state to protect the elderly and vulnerable, mostly young people have been scapegoated for responsibility for the spreading of the virus.  Yet, as the data shows, the young and middle aged are at no significant risk from the virus.  It is the young, in particular, whose lives have been unnecessarily harmed by the lockdowns and lockouts.  It is the young that have unnecessarily lost around 15% of the education they were entitled to and which workers tax contributions have paid for.  It is the young that have been even more ripped off in relation to the provision of University tuition for which they have paid significant fees.  It is the young that have lost most jobs as a result of the government lockouts.

Yet, the Left as much as the Liberals and other social-democrats have been at the forefront of attacking the young for resisting the attacks on them and their rights and freedoms.  That i a direct consequence of the Opportunism of the Left, and the championing of the attacks on those rights and freedoms that are the necessary corollary of their presentation of COVID as some existential threat to society, for the reasons that have been described before.

The left will pay a heavy price amongst the youth for its opportunism, and so it should.

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