Predictions For 2021 - Prediction 1 – Countries Develop Herd Immunity Before Vaccines Become Widely Available.

Prediction 1 – Countries Develop Herd Immunity Before Vaccines Become Widely Available. 

Proponents of lockdown have attempted a salami slicing operation, in getting people to accept their failed strategy. They first implemented a complete lockdown of social activity, for several months. It failed to deal with the virus, and only acted to slow the development of herd immunity, and has now resulted in the development of a new more contagious strain of the virus, whilst, even this lockdown of social activity, was enough to crucify the economy. They knew they would have difficulty imposing a further total lockdown over a prolonged period, which would only draw attention to the miserable failure of the first, and that it would have even more serious economic consequences than the first. So, they put forward the idea of “circuit breaker” lockdowns, or else regional lockdowns that were intended to win acceptance on the basis of them being limited and temporary. The idea is basically to keep fobbing people off with promises of jam tomorrow, of just one last heave, to defeat the virus, whilst they pin all their hopes on the arrival of a vaccine. The promotion of the idea that test and trace could fill the vacuum until the arrival of a vaccine has been just another part of that façade. 

The alternative to lockdowns was never just doing nothing, and letting the virus rip. The alternative was always that it was possible, and sensible, to focus attention on the protection of the elderly and vulnerable, during which time herd immunity was allowed to develop safely amongst the rest of the population. Of course, this latter strategy is not attractive to the medical-industrial complex, because it means that it can be achieved without spending vast amounts on expensive medical systems, computer technology, or drugs and so on. The extent to which the medical-industrial complex has had a field day with COVID19, is indicated by the £12 billion pumped directly into the pockets of companies and consultants to develop the test and trace system in Britain that has been an almost complete failure. Millions more has been channelled into the search for vaccines, which will turn into billions of profit for the drug companies when a vaccine is eventually released. It saw millions spent to develop the Nightingale hospitals that were a huge white elephant, at the same time as helping the NHS bureaucracy expand its own empires. Boots has jumped on the bandwagon offering COVID tests at a price of £120 a pop. This is big business, and the idea that a virtually cost free alternative was available is anathema to the interests of the medical-industrial complex. 

Yet, a virtually cost free, and more effective alternative was available in the form of focused protection of the elderly and vulnerable. That fact is illustrated by the example of Sweden, which did not impose lockdowns, and yet brought the virus under control by July, with new deaths from it, being reduced almost to zero. But, Sweden illustrates something else. The fact that it has seen relatively few new deaths since July suggests that it must have achieved something approaching herd immunity, at least in its main population centres. That, together with the kinds of sensible measures on wearing face masks, social distancing and so on, has meant that the virus did not spread to the vulnerable sections of the population, and is dying out. Yet, according to the official data, Sweden also should not have a level of immunity required to produce such results. The fact that it has suggests that the measurement of levels of immunity, and the models of what is required to produce herd immunity are wrong. 

We know that 80% of people infected by the virus are asymptomatic, and that perhaps a further 10%, may have symptoms not sufficient to lead them to seek medical attention, and so the number of people recorded as having been infected is around a tenth of the actual levels of infections. There have been some studies to try to determine the level of immunity, and these suggested that only around 10% of people currently have immunity, whereas a figure of around 60% is thought necessary for herd immunity. A similar figure is indicated for Sweden. But, the fact that Sweden has essentially eradicated new deaths, suggests that something is wrong with these estimates. Given that Sweden did not impose lockdowns, its likely that, even with the other measures it has adopted, the level of infection would have been such as to have infected much more than 10% of its population. In recent weeks, Sweden has also seen an increase in infections, and deaths, as a second wave swept Europe, yet it remains at a much lower level in Sweden than elsewhere. 

Similarly, in Britain, during the Summer, large numbers of people continued to meet in large gatherings, and to interact in a way that is likely to have led to millions of them being infected, most of them not knowing it, because of being asymptomatic. Every time, any lockdowns are relaxed, these interactions increase further. The spike in Britain in October, was due to the relaxation of lockdowns, which led elderly people to go out to pubs and restaurants and town centres, where they contracted the virus, again some of them dying as a result, which led to an increase in testing of them and those they had contact with, which led to the rise in the recorded number of infections. 

The level of infections in most countries must now be widespread, and the number of people actually with immunity must be much greater than official estimates suggest. Each time lockdowns are relaxed, or each time people begin to ignore the lockdowns as they drag on longer than was promised, the amount of infection will increase, and along with it, the level of immunity generated. Most of it will not be recorded because of the extensive level of asymptomatic transmission. Even though lockdowns have slowed the development of herd immunity, they have not stopped it. 

Even with all of the shortcuts that have been introduced to allow vaccines to be developed without the normal levels of testing to ensure safety, it is likely to be another 6 months before a vaccine is generally available. The current level of vaccination is measured in tens of thousands, whereas tens of millions, in Britain alone, need to be vaccinated. With the current existing levels of infection, and rates of spread, especially with the dominance of the new more virulent strain, its likely that most countries will have developed an adequate level of herd immunity before those vaccines are given to wider populations. In Britain, currently, despite the lockdown that has been in place for weeks, reported infections have risen to around 40,000-50,000 per day, meaning the actual figure for infections is around 200,000 – 500,000 per day. Just on that basis alone the virus is creating a far higher level of herd immunity amongst the population than is the process of vaccination.

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