Lockdown and Brexit U-Turns

So, within days of saying there would be no new national lockdown, Boris Johnson announces a new national lockdown; two weeks ago, he'd said that Britain would walk away from Brexit talks, but then he continued the talks, just as he'd capitulated in all previous talks with the EU. The first U-turn is the result of the Tories having no plan B for COVID, after their lockdown plan failed miserably; the second U-turn is the result of the Tories having no Plan B for Brexit, after their first plan to have the EU capitulate to them, failed miserably. The first U-Turn is preparation for an even bigger U-Turn on the second, because Boris must now know that the Brexit gig is up. 

The Tories, as I said yesterday, had no choice but to impose another national lockdown, because the regional lockdowns were not working, and because the only rational option, adopting focused protection, as described in The Great Barrington Declaration, would mean acknowledging that they, and all their scientific advisors, got it all terribly wrong, and, thereby, caused the unnecessary deaths of tens of thousands of people. It would mean the government having to take on, and face down, their own scientific advisors, as well as the media that promoted the COVID moral panic, as well as the Labour opposition that has acted out of pure opportunism throughout the whole mess. They were unlikely to do that, even though its the only rational solution, and even though the attendant economic damage of a lockdown, alongside the bailing out of firms and individuals that lockdown entails will bankrupt the economy, and lead to a severe financial crisis whose effects will last for years. 

Similarly, the Tories know that a crash out Brexit would bring even greater immediate catastrophe than even their lockdown induced catastrophe. It would see, supermarket shelves empty rapidly, access to vital drugs cut off, flights grounded entirely, ports clogged, and prices rising rapidly, alongside the Pound crashing, and UK interest rates surging, causing UK asset prices to crash. Even a managed No Deal, would cause huge economic damage, but not quite so imminently. The Tories are not going to do that, which would exclude them from government for generations. 

In Northern Ireland, as a BBC report showed, yesterday, although the site for the required customs border between Britain and Northern Ireland has been identified and acquired, there has been absolutely no work done on preparing it for its function. There is no way that is going to happen before the end of the year. It would take months to set up. Now, the government might say that is because they do not accept that any such border is required between Britain and Northern Ireland, and that is why they have passed the UK Internal Markets Bill. But, that would directly contravene the Northern Ireland Protocol that Johnson has signed into international law. Breaching it would not just mean that Britain would become an international pariah, and rogue state, sued in the courts by the EU, but it would mean that any chance of Britain having a friendly relationship with the EU is out of the window. Given that the EU is seven times bigger than the UK, and sits on its borders, there is only one way any such conflict ends, and its with the defeat and discredit of Britain. 

Moreover, any such attempt by Britain would necessitate a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. The BBC report showed just how badly Northern Ireland will fare, even if a deal with the EU is struck. In conditions where not only is there no deal, but Britain deliberately antagonises the EU, by ripping up the Withdrawal Agreement and Northern Ireland Protocol, it would fare even worse. The Republic can be supported by the EU, but a Britain in deepening crisis because of the idiotic lockdown, made ten times worse by an idiotic Brexit, will be in no position to bail out Northern Ireland, which the vast majority of Tory members would be happy to see leave the UK anyway. The only short-term solution to that would be a United Ireland, but with a hard core of Loyalist paramilitaries opposed to any such solution, it would mean a return of the violence of the 1970's-90's, but now from the opposite direction. 

Johnson might have hoped that a Trump victory would have given him breathing space. The real Brexiters in the Tory Party undoubtedly believed that to be the case, as they fantasised about more or less completely separating themselves from Europe, and turning Britain into an equivalent of Batista's Cuba of the 1950's. But, unless something astounding happens between today, and tomorrow's US elections, it looks inevitable, not only that Biden will win the Presidency, but that the Democrats will strengthen their hold over the House of Representatives, and gain control of the Senate. Even without that, Democrat control of the House means that a US-UK trade deal is not on the cards, if Britain abandons the NI protocol. 

In other words, the Tories must know that the Brexit gig is up. Certainly Johnson must know that. Johnson, of course, was never a Brexiteer. He adopted that position for one reason and one reason only – that of putting himself at the head of an internal Tory opposition to Cameron, and, thereby, to make himself party Leader and PM. Remember his two articles on Brexit, one arguing for the other against. Johnson's role on Brexit is similar to that of Nixon to China. Its one reason he has perpetually capitulated to the EU, having first made blood curdling speeches to the contrary. The other reason is that, in its negotiations with the EU, its the EU that holds all the cards. So long as Trump was in the Whitehouse, there was the slight chance that Britain could save itself from disaster, but now that chance has gone. 

In fact, more than that. Within weeks of the Democrats taking the Presidency and Congress, Trump is likely to be on trial, and within months is likely to be convicted. As with all experience of this moronic weasel, he will give up anyone in order to try to save his skin, and to blame others. The material on all of his associates is already extensive. When he no longer has the privileges of office, and the Democrats have all the levers at their disposal the dirt will come out from under carpets, and behind cupboards like a desert storm. There must be shredders, and electronic scrubbing going on madly already. The dirt from all that will not be confined to the US, but to all those connections in Russia, and across Europe, particularly in Britain. If Farage thought there was life after being an MEP, for him, in the US, he can forget it. But, those links did not just extend to the Faragists in UKIP and its replacement, but to the Faragists in the Tory Party too. 

One of the first things that Biden will do is rebuild bridges with the US's traditional allies in Europe. Part of that will also be launching an attack on all of the right-wing populists and nationalists. In order not to fall off the end of the bench, Britain will have to go out of its way to show itself a good friend of the new Democrat administration. Not tearing up the Withdrawal Agreement and NI Protocol is the minimum required in that respect. Britain rebuilding its own bridges with Europe is not far behind it. 

That means that, even if Britain does not directly reverse its Brexit decision, it will, at the very least, have to neuter it. Johnson must have known all along that Britain needs Single Market access, and that requires that Britain abides by Single Market rules on regulations and standards, free movement and so on. Johnson, having led the Tory Brexit campaign is probably the only Tory Leader who could pull that off. But, that means that he will either have to capitulate again by agreeing to staying in the Single Market and Customs Union, which would make the NI Protocol, the need for those non-existent border controls, and the UK Internal Market Bill, all redundant, or else he will have to agree a deal that amounts to that in substance. Alternatively, he will have to kick the can down the road, by extending the existing transitional period. 

The introduction of the new national lockdown facilitates all of these alternatives. Johnson can argue that, because of having to extend the lockdown, it is impossible to conclude trade talks with the EU. In fact, no one believes the lockdown is only going to last until the start of December. Labour's claim that, had it been introduced a couple of weeks sooner, it need only have lasted three weeks is ludicrous, as is nearly everything they have said on both lockdown and Brexit. Their politics under slimey Starmer, or maybe Slimer for short, is based on the worst kind of opportunism, as is Slimer's own politics, which seems to be a chameleon like ability to simply say whatever he thinks will further his own personal career prospects on the day, for example his overnight conversion to Brexit. 

My guess is that Johnson will go for an extension of the Transition Period, as that gives him time to carry out his own internal cleansing of the Tory Party. It might then give him time to call an election in a year's time, in which he will consolidate this position, and create the parliamentary maths by which some kind of BRINO deal becomes possible. Johnson's position all along was that it was possible to do a Thatcher and get a better deal for Britain inside Europe. That is probably also gone, now, as the EU consolidates, and moves closer to becoming a federal state.