Cummings, Goings and Still Brexit Is Not Done

The chattering classes have been overexcited in the last couple of days as ructions inside Downing Street saw Lee Cain pushed out, now followed by Dominic Cummings.  All of this tittle-tattle is part of the faux-frais of politics, but its an outward manifestation of other deeper processes.  Cummings, Cain and others comprised the general staff of Vote Leave.  Their departure comes not only at the end of a year in which the promise to "Get Brexit Done", still has not been fulfilled, along with many other such promises, but when its clear it is not going to get done.  The Vote Leave Cabinet, has failed on pretty much every front, and has been marked by the most appalling lack of competence on every topic it has laid its hands.

The promise to "Get Brexit Done" was one the government could never fulfil, because it is unfulfillable.  The promise was based on the delusion that the EU somehow needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.  Given that the EU is seven times the size of Britain that is clearly a preposterous assumption, and one that would immediately be disproved by reality as soon as negotiations began.  So it was.  Johnson promised to die in a ditch, but instead applied for an extension of Article 50.  Then with a sizeable parliamentary majority, gifted to him, by Corbyn's disastrous pro-Brexit position adopted again during 2019, Johnson proceeded to capitulate to the EU again, in order to get a Withdrawal Agreement.  He signed up to the same deal that he had rejected when proposed by Theresa May that puts a border down the Irish Sea.

Within months, as reality again bit, he was forced into the ridiculous position of proposing to break international law, by ripping up this very same treaty.  The actual purpose of that bit of theatre was to try to persuade the EU that Britain had some negotiating strength, when in fact, it was obvious it had none.  At least John major seems to have recognised the reality, having told Tories that Britain's imperial past is long gone, and that it is now just a top ranking, second rate power.  In fact, even that is probably an overestimate in a world of superstates.  A top ranking third-rate power is more accurate.

The truth remains what it has always been.  Britain can crash out of the EU, and face immediate catastrophe, or it can try to negotiate a deal from a position of subordination, which will avoid the immediate catastrophe, but still see it suffer the kind of longer-term decline that entry into the EU, in the first place, was designed to halt.  Or it could realise that Brexit was a serious mistake, and call the whole thing off, either immediately, or else by accepting continued membership of the Single Market and Customs Union, as a preliminary to re-joining in the near future.

Cummings is not the only one going of course.  His departure comes in the week after Trump was also given his marching orders.  The two are not unconnected.  With Trump gone, all of that cotery of populists that pursued the course of economic nationalism have been seriously weakened.  Biden will turn decisively towards the EU.  In his phone call to Johnson he stressed the need to avoid damage to the Good Friday Agreement, and its impossible to see how that happens within the context of Brexit.  In essence, Britain has become even more isolated, now not just from the EU, but also from the US.

Cummings going is the first steps towards the Tories changing position back towards the EU, as the necessary route to them also keeping in the good books of the US.