Brexit Still Hasn't Been Done

Boris Johnson promised, last year, that he would “Get Brexit Done”. Three quarters of the way though this year, and he still hasn't. Having capitulated to the EU, and, in effect, to reality, several times last year, just to get a withdrawal agreement that was, in fact, worse than the deal Johnson and the Brexiters had rejected under Theresa May, Boris has been left with Britain still inside the EU, for all intents and purposes, as part of the transition period, but without any of the rights of membership, such as having MEP's etc. 

Britain has no cards to play. Boris and the Brexiters have simply tried to bluff and bluster their way through, as they have done for the last four years, but such bluffs only work if the other side think you might have some card up your sleeve. The EU knows that Britain does not. They know the economic data, its out in plain sight. They know the dynamics of a post-Brexit scenario, and so they know that, whilst a No Deal Brexit will have some short term, minor downsides for them, for Britain, it would be catastrophic. They know that any deal that does not retain Britain inside the Single Market and Customs Union, would again mean some short-term downsides for them, but again, for Britain it will lead only to short-term, and longer-term economic decline. So, at each stage, the EU, which is seven times the size of Britain, in terms of its economy and population, has been able to shrug its shoulders at the Brexiters empty threats, as if to say, if you intend to kill yourself, go ahead. 

And, so it is with Boris's latest threats. Boris and his reactionary government, first tried to get out of the withdrawal agreement they had signed as part of their last capitulation in January. They were forced to declare that they would turn Britain into a rogue state, and international pariah, by saying, openly, that they would break international law, and, in the process, undermine the Good Friday Agreement. The EU responded calmly by invoking the very withdrawal agreement that Johnson had signed, and informing him that they would sue Britain for its breach of international law, whilst giving him no grounds to blame the EU for any collapse of talks, by continuing to negotiate whilst such proceedings were in the works. The end result was that Boris's position inside his party was further undermined, and the position of the Brexiters was further weakened. 

Even with an 80 seat majority, it appeared that the Tories political leadership is so inept that it could not guarantee a majority, as its MP's baulked at the prospect of Britain becoming a law breaker and international pariah. That was strengthened when, in the US, politicians from both sides of the aisle issued dire warnings to Johnson about breaking the Good Friday Agreement, which is a necessary corollary of him breaking the provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement, and its Northern Ireland Protocol. The only saviour for Johnson, besides the dubious nature of the support for him from Trump, has been the totally ineffective nature of the supposed opposition from Keir Starmer and Labour. Instead of piling the pressure on Johnson and the Brexiters during this period, Starmer has become one of Johnson's greatest supporters, calling on him to indeed “Get Brexit Done”, with all haste, not to mention his calls on Johnson to destroy jobs, and withdraw civil liberties at an accelerated pace, by even more harsh lockdowns. Starmer has become a bigger Brexiter than Corbyn, and now also promotes all of the same kinds of economic nationalist delusions of the Lexiters, based upon the idea of building Social-Democracy in One Country. 

Now, Johnson and the Brexiters are at it again. Johnson threatened the EU that if he didn't see the signs of a deal by next week, the Tories would pull out of the talks with the EU. That must have been music to the ears of Barnier and the EU negotiators. They, of course, know that Britain will do no such thing, other than for perhaps, a very short token gesture. Britain can even less afford to pull out of talks now than they could at any time over the last four years. The Transition Period theoretically ends on 31st December, and, without a deal, Britain will crash out. Johnson knows that, if that happens, it will be utterly catastrophic for Britain, making the disaster they have created by the introduction of lockdowns look minor by comparison. What is more, the EU know that Johnson knows that; they also know that the ruling class and its representatives in the British state know that. That is why they know that Johnson can't allow it to happen. 

Already, time was running out for Britain, and for Johnson and the Brexiters. The Transition Period ends on 31st December, but the EU had set a date of the end of October for negotiations to conclude, because, if any deal were reached, it has to be ratified by EU national parliaments, and by the European Parliament. In reality, they would find ways of extending that deadline, just as they would find ways of extending the deadline for the Transition Period.

But, by his pointless act of bravado, in saying that Britain will pull out next week, Johnson has simply invited the EU, to sit on its hands for a week. When the end of next week comes, and no deal arrives, what will Johnson actually do? He may make a token gesture of pulling out of talks, but the EU knows that within days, he'll be back. The UK cannot allow a crash out no deal, or even a No Deal Brexit. So, the EU knows that Johnson will have to capitulate on his latest threat to throw out his dummy, just as he has done on all previous occasions. And, the more he has to capitulate and U-Turn, the more he looks weak and incompetent, the more his status, even in his own party, deteriorates, let alone the support for the Tories and for Brexit amongst the electorate. If only we had a principled, organised Labour opposition, standing against the Tories, and against their Brexit and lockdown madness at the moment, Labour would be 20 points ahead in the opinion polls. 

The reality is that Johnson will have to capitulate, both over his latest bluff, and over his commitment not to ask for an extension of the Transition Period, or else his commitment not to agree to a deal that amounts to Brexit in Name Only. It looks like it would take a miracle for Trump not to lose the Presidential election, though the politics of Biden/Harris give him the best chance he has. When Biden wins, the game is really up for Johnson, Farage and the Brexiters, as well as for many of their ilk across the globe. A Biden win means that any suggestion that Britain will renege on the GFA is dead, and that means that, at the very least, Britain has to abide by the Northern Ireland Protocol of the Withdrawal Agreement. The chances of Britain getting a trade deal with the US disappear, anyway. 

One of the first things that a Biden Presidency, and Democrat controlled Congress will do is to start repairing the damage that Trump has done to the US over the last four years. They will want to begin by restoring good relations with the EU, and, in effect, what that means is restoring good relations with the other conservative social-democrats across Europe, such as Merkel, Macron, and co. Part and parcel of that will also be to start dealing with the reactionaries that have undermined them - the Le Pen's, Farages and so on. A Biden Presidency, and Democrat Congress, will not only begin to expose all of the murky relations and activities that have taken place under Trump, who is likely to end up himself in the dock, but will also expose all of these other reactionary creatures. The political support for the Brexiters and other reactionaries will be cut from beneath them. 

Biden will also try to undo the damage done by Trump's disastrous global trade war, of which Brexit is just a little wheel. The starting point will be removing the tariffs put on EU goods, but soon after, it will involve removing the restrictions placed on Chinese goods. Those restrictions have only damaged the US, in just the same way that Brexit will really only damage Britain. That doesn't mean that Biden will not see China as a serious competitor, and threat to the US, but its one that the US will deal with in other ways that avoid damaging its own economy.

For one thing, the Democrats as more rational representatives of the interests of the ruling class, know that all history shows that tyrannical governments are most likely to fall when the economies of those countries thrive leading to the growth of a more powerful middle-class that demands political rights, and bourgeois-democracy for itself. The biggest threat to the Chinese Stalinists comes from the Chinese people itself, as its social weight increases, and as the Chinese middle-class has to rely on the support of a huge, and increasingly class conscious Chinese proletariat to obtain its desire for political democracy, just as happened in Europe in the 19th century, and early twentieth century. 

The increase in global trade this brings about, will bring a corresponding increase in global economic growth, unless continued government lockdowns restrict it. But, its unlikely that governments will be able to continue to impose those idiotic lockdowns, as its increasingly seen that they do not work, are counterproductive, and have caused unnecessary deaths, and massive economic disruption. Already, as the The Great Barrington Declaration shows, scientists are beginning to challenge the arguments and hysteria around lockdowns, shouting out that the Emperor is in the altogether.

That increase in global trade, and global growth will return us to the conditions of 2018, when growth began to cause interest rates to rise, and which led to a 20% drop in the Dow Jones and other stock markets. That is bad news for the top 0.01%, who owns all their wealth in the form of this fictitious capital. However, in the meantime, they have been shielded, to an extent. QE means that a large proportion of global bonds are now held, not by individuals or banks and financial institutions, but by central banks. In other words, the central banks have bought all this worthless paper from the top 0.01% at inflated prices, leaving the taxpayer to take the loss when those prices collapse. That leaves, the owners of fictitious capital only with the losses they will incur on their share ownership. That is still a huge capital loss they face. However, they seem to think that share prices will not collapse in the same way that bond prices will. They believe, or more correctly hope, that a large increase in economic activity, will bring a big increase in profits, and that will keep share prices inflated. They are wrong, but still. 

What a Biden Presidency, and Democrat Congress means, in these conditions, is that appearance and reality will be brought more into alignment than has been the case over the last four years. It means that the reaction represented by Trump, Farage and Brexit will be seen to have offered no way forward, and that the only rational way forward, even for the owners of fictitious capital, is an extension of social-democracy, even if that involves pain for them in the short-term, in the form of capital losses, as asset prices crash. Their hubris means they think that the central planners in the central banks and other parts of the state apparatus, will be able to manage this process for them, and that, having got out of bonds, even if their shares drop in the short-term, they will rise in the longer-term, as profits expands.