Lockdown - The Definition of Stupidity

Einstein said that the definition of stupidity was performing the same experiment over and over, and expecting a different outcome.  The imposition of lockdowns in response to COVID19 was never going to work, and so it has proved.  It was always the case that, unless the virus was more or less completely eradicated, or widespread herd immunity generated to it, then as soon as any lockdowns were relaxed, the virus would simply spread rapidly once again.  So, it has proved.  Everywhere that lockdowns were imposed, the virus has spread rapidly again, as soon as the lockdown was relaxed, no matter how soon, or how effectively those lockdowns were imposed.  That is happening in France, and Germany as much as it is happening in Britain.  The only place in Europe where that is not happening is Sweden.  Sweden never introduced a lockdown and so avoided the damage to its economy.  It made the same mistake as elsewhere at the beginning in relation to its care homes, but has remedied that situation.  It essentially ended any new deaths from COVID weeks ago.  In September it as had just 30 deaths in total, or less than an average of 2 per day.  A rational person would look to that successful experience, not simply repeat the failed experiment with lockdowns.

And, that was obviously going to happen.  As some epidemiologists pointed out at the start, its like a forest fire.  If you stop a fire by concentrating only on the burning trees, but do nothing to protect the rest of the forest by building adequate firebreaks and so on, as soon as you leave, any small embers from the fire you missed, get blown by the wind, and ignite the forest once more.  And, so it was bound to be with COVID and the lockdown.  The lockdown did nothing in itself to kill the virus.  On the contrary, by slowing its spread amongst the 80% of the population who are not at serious risk from it, it prevented the rapid development of herd immunity.

But as many epidemiologists like Professor Sunetra Gupta have pointed out, in the absence of a vaccine, the development of herd immunity is the only realistic means of killing the virus, by stopping its spread.  The latest reports suggest that it will still be another year before any vaccine is available for widespread use, and we already know that COVID 19 has developed more than one strain.  Indeed, COVID19 is a coronavirus, one of the viruses responsible for the common cold, and the reason no vaccine has been developed for the common cols, is precisely due to this problem that there are so many different strains involved.  That is why in response to the common cold resource is made to the long-term development of natural herd immunity, and partial immunities resulting from immunity to other closely associated strains.

If there was one justification for imposing a lockdown, it would have been to have given time to put in place other measures.  For example, there was no reason why the main locations of deaths and serious illness should have been hospitals and care homes.  It was known from the start that COVID19 is a highly specific virus, targeting almost exclusively the elderly particularly those over 80, but also those over 60, and to a lesser degree those with underlying medical conditions that compromise their immune systems.  So, from the start the aim should have been to isolate those groups.  The obvious place to start was care homes containing large numbers of elderly and vulnerable people, as well as hospitals.  But, that was not done.  people going into hospital with other conditions, contracted COVID19 in the hospital, and died.  Hospitals sent people with COVID19 back to care homes, where not only did they then die, but they spread the virus to others in the care home, who also then died or became seriously ill.

Yet, it should have been obvious that what was required was to lock down care homes, to isolate them, and to provide staff with adequate PPE to stop them spreading the virus.  It should have been obvious that hospitals needed to establish isolation units so that those with the virus were kept physically distanced from other patients, and again that staff were provided with adequate PPE, and contact protocols established to ensure that they could not act as transmitters of the virus to the elderly and vulnerable.  Yet none of that was done.  The government and the NHS signally failed in all those basic tasks.  Belatedly, and more as a piece of showmanship, the so called Nightingale Hospitals were set up, but although they drained much needed staff and resources from the rest of the NHS, they remained essentially empty, with bed after bed lying unused.  At the same time, because no effective contact or isolation protocols were established, to keep COVID patients physically distanced from others, large numbers of sick people with other illnesses, such as cancer were told to stay away from hospitals, or chose to do so for fear of themselves being infected.  In much of the country, far from hospitals being over run, admission rate fell to as low as 40%!

None of that has been done.  Now s lockdowns are relaxed, inevitably the virus has begun to spread more rapidly, though in truth we don't know how rapidly, because any guesstimate is based upon the numbers of people tested, and the testing regime is a complete farce, and in the process of collapse.  The government claims huge numbers are being tested, but a test is only a test if the sample is actually processed in a reasonable time, and the processing of samples is taking up to two weeks to do, which is totally useless.  On the one hand, we have thousands of people, panicked by government and media hype into getting children tested - which in the vast majority of cases is totally pointless as the chance of children being badly affected by the virus is statistically less than insignificant to non-existent - whilst many more people, can only get a test if they travel hundreds of miles to get one!

A look at the data everywhere shows that the largest increase in infections is amongst the younger age group.  But, its precisely amongst that age group that there is virtually no risk of death or serious illness.  That is why although the number of infections has spiked, the number of deaths or serious illness has not.  Where deaths or serious illness has increased, it is again amongst the elderly and the sick, which again simply shows that after all this time, governments have not put in place the appropriate measures to isolate care homes, or to establish isolation units for hospitals, or to ensure that the sick and elderly living at home, can be provided with the care they need safely.

Instead, governments are again looking to impose lockdowns, which impact not on those at risk from the virus, but on those not at risk, i.e. on the young and healthy!  Indeed, large numbers of them are being criminalised for doing nothing more than going about their business and enjoying themselves safely.  Already, we see that in term of the economic impact of government imposed lockdowns, it is these same younger age groups that are being made to suffer.  It is amongst those groups that incomes have been reduced most, and that have suffered the greatest loss of employment.  The government is scapegoating younger people in order to cover for its own idiotic mismanagement of the virus.

Yet, what is the government doing - and not just in Britain - as the virus inevitably spreads more quickly again, has it isolated the vulnerable, has it put in place the measures needed to ensure the vulnerable 20% of the population can isolate safely?  No it is again simply imposing lockdowns.  It is repeating the same failed experiment all over again, and expecting a different result.  The very definition of stupidity.