The UK-EU Brexit negotiations are going nowhere. The deadline for agreeing an extension of the transition period passed in June, apparently leaving the only option as some kind of negotiated deal. However, the deadline set for that is the end of July, and that clearly isn't going to happen. Reports in recent days have shown what a disaster, for Britain, there would be if no deal is agreed. Only a quarter of UK hauliers would be able to operate in Europe, meaning that in a matter of days, there would be shortages of food, medicines and other vital supplies. That is just one area in which life would get seriously worse, even compared to the catastrophe that the Tory lockdown has inflicted on the economy.
The EU will lose economically from a no deal too, but far less than will the UK, and it will not represent any kind of threat to life and well being, as it will imply for UK citizens. Moreover, as a consequence of the economic crisis caused by government lockdowns there could be distinct advantages for the EU in a no deal. States across the globe will be having to spend trillions bailing out strategic industries that have been crushed by the effects of government imposed lockdowns. The EU will pump tens of billions into Airbus, for example, but has no reason to want to see any of that money benefiting the UK arm of the company. Quite the opposite, the EU will be keen to see, industries and jobs migrating from an isolated UK economy towards the EU, as it will assist its efforts at restarting its economy after the lockdowns. And, a large movement of businesses from the UK to the EU will be an inevitable consequence of a no deal, as the EU imposes tariffs, and other restrictions on UK produced goods and services.
So, the fact remains, as it has always been that in these negotiations the EU retains all the cards, and the UK is trying to bluff, whilst everyone can see that it has an empty hand. Boris Johnson rather like his US counterpart, Brexit Trump, will continue to bluff and bluster, and talk about what a wonderful position the UK is in, his henchmen will continue the inane mantra that the EU always only reach a deal at the last minute, and so its all a matter of waiting for them to give in, and so on. However, the reality is here presented in a mirror. Just like Trump's negotiations with Kim in North Korea, the bluff and bluster don't change the outcome, however, much spin they put on it.
The fact is that its not the EU that will capitulate at the last minute, but Britain, because the reality is that Britain cannot live with a no deal outcome. Boris Johnson knows it, the ruling class knows it, the British state knows it, and the EU knows. The EU negotiators have given some concessions to Britain, because they are smart enough to know that Johnson and co. would try to present things as being all down to EU intransigence. The EU negotiators know that Johnson, and the UK negotiators are tied into a narrative framed by their own Brexit campaign, and appeal to reactionary sentiment, amongst a minority of the UK population that, as with Trump in the US, however, represents the core support for the Tory Party. So, the EU knew they could give concessions on side issues, in the sure knowledge that the UK would obstruct any agreement on the core issues such as fishing and the level playing field.
But, all that does is to put time pressure on the UK. Time is running out for the UK. The deadline for an extension of the transition period has gone, and the possibility of a no deal that would crucify the UK is rapidly approaching like a freight train. Johnson and the UK negotiators have no option but to continue to bluff and bluster and pretend that the EU will cave at the last minute, even though they must know that will not happen, and has never happened before.
They gave Cameron nothing in his pathetic attempts to mimic Thatcher's negotiations of various UK concessions; for all Theresa May's talk of "Brexit Meaning Brexit", and of a "Red, White and Blue Brexit", of "No Deal is Better Than A Bad Deal", she capitulated, and extended Article 50 twice, as well as capitulating in order to get a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU that she couldn't then get through parliament; for all Boris Johnson's promises to "Die In A Ditch", he didn't, and also extended Article 50, and then capitulated again in January, accepting a worse deal than that which May had accepted, a deal, which she had rejected earlier, because of opposition from not only the DUP, but also of Johnson himself!
So, as the year drags on, all of the theatrics will be meaningless. The UK will have only two real options. The third option of a NO Deal, is not a real option, because even without the economy having been cratered by the Tory lockdown, it would mean devastation for the UK economy, and a real threat to life and limb of UK citizens to a degree that no government could consider being held responsible for. It would split the Tory parliamentary party, lead to mass protests and strikes, and almost inevitably the fall of the government in conditions worse than those that led to the fall of the Heath government in 1974. Combined with the growing realisation of the unnecessary damage that the Tory lockdown has imposed, it would mean that the Tories would be destroyed as a political force for at least a generation.
The only two real options are that either, at the last minute, Johnson will have to ask for an extension of the Transition Period, or else, he will have to do what he did in January and capitulate accepting a deal on EU terms. Theoretically, the first option isn't possible, but the EU has always found ways of getting round theoretically impossible hurdles, where it was to their advantage to do so. To get to this position, Johnson would have to make an embarrassing climb down and U-turn once again. But, he has already done lots of them. he would have to repeal the legislation his government passed saying there would be no extension, and to do so he would probably have to rely on Labour votes. In such conditions, the EU would be seen to be clearly in the driving seat. It would undoubtedly only grant an extension if it was for a prolonged period, at least two years.
But, some EU countries, like France, have become somewhat tired of Brexit and of the destabilising role played by Britain. They may not agree to an extension preferring to just lance the boil. They may force the issue forcing Britain to choose between a No Deal that would destroy the UK, or else capitulating and accepting a deal that effectively leaves the UK inside the Single Market and Customs Union, subject to the ECJ, and so on, but with no political rights which are only available to members. If the EU negotiators have gamed this scenario, that i the option they would choose, because it leaves the UK in a seriously weakened position, though not as weakened as a No Deal Brexit would leave it. It leaves a UK government with only that one rational option to take. It means that the UK would also not be able to do deals with the US that would be detrimental to the EU, and means that in a fairly short time period, the UK would almost certainly be seeking a fast-track re-entry into the EU, because why have all the obligations of membership without the rights that go with it? But, as the EU presses on towards fiscal union, which means that actual political union is not far behind, it would mean that a future British reentry would also be on that basis. It would mean that the things the UK has always been able to frustrate as a member of the EU, of membership of the Eurozone, and political union, it would no longer have any power to resist.
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