Brexit is really a divorce between England and the EU. Its England that voted to leave the EU. Large majorities voted to remain in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and in Gibraltar. Scotland now has a majority to leave its English parent, and move in with its EU parent, and a border poll in Northern Ireland could go the same way, as the Irish economy, itself, continues to grow strongly, whilst the English economy has come to a standstill. England's closest child, Wales, is now showing signs of following the lead of its siblings, and seeing growing signs of wanting to leave the nest. Even Gibraltar, the family pet, which has been loyal throughout, has asked if it can join Shengen, as it considers its relation to the EU, and Spain, which sits on its border, only to be given a quick kick in the ribs by its English master, and told to come to heel.
Divorce never ends well, for obvious reasons, and nor will Brexit, if and when that end ever arrives. All those who swallowed the guff about Getting Brexit Done, must already by mortified that it continues to dominate the airwaves, and the pages of the press. Far from being done, never to be heard from again, Brexit is only just in the foothills of a process that will drag out for years to come. For one thing, for the next year, Britain is in the transition period, during which nothing changes, other than, as one hapless Brexit party MEP discovered, recently, Britain no longer has any say in the European Parliament, Commission or Council of Ministers over what goes on in the EU!
Already, the reality is dawning. The EU has made it clear that any idea Britain had of holding on to the family home, and all of its contents can be forgotten. Even to get to this stage, the EU has invoked its pre-nup with England, demanding that it make good on paying for its share of accumulated debts and commitments to the tune of £40 billion. Whatever happens in the transition period, Britain now has to pay this money. It has also had to put in writing its commitment to the EU citizens living in Britain, and their rights. Britain has also had to acknowledge that Northern Ireland is likely to move out of the family home, by ensuring that it remains tied to the EU Single Market and Customs Union, with a border down the Irish Sea, separating it from England. In that Boris Johnson even capitulated to a greater extent than had Theresa May, who was forced to drop her original agreement for such a solution. Northern Ireland is, thereby, tied to the rapidly growing economy of the Irish Republic. In terms of everyday life, Northern Ireland is already effectively a part of the Republic rather than Britain, and where reality leads, appearance shortly follows.
The Brexiters have repeatedly stated that Britain is in a better position to negotiate a deal, because it already has common regulations, tariffs, etc. with the EU. But, that is nonsense, for the same reason that its much easier for people who are getting married, or deciding to live together to come to an agreement, than it is for people who are getting divorced! The former are on good terms, the latter not so much; the former are looking to shared benefits, the latter trying to minimise the damage they suffer. Unlike other countries seeking o do deals with the EU, Britain is not looking to move closer to it, but to move away from it! Even before any talks get under way, the EU has made clear that a precondition will be that the EU retains its existing fishing rights in British Waters. As Britain wants a deal with the EU over financial services, which account for a much, much larger part of the UK economy than does fishing, its inevitable that the UK will quickly cave over that issue. All of those in the coastal areas that vote for Brexit in the hope of “taking back control” over UK waters, will be quickly disappointed. But, in any case, if Scotland votes to leave the UK, and Northern Ireland votes to reunite with the Republic, the extent of English fishing waters, will be significantly curtailed.
The truth is that the EU has already dictated to England what the relationship to Northern Ireland will be, because, without agreement, the issue of the Irish border, which all the Brexiteers insisted was not a problem, would have been raised front and centre. The EU will dictate to England on almost anything you can mention, for the simple reason that it is that much bigger, that much more powerful. Its has a population of 450 million, compared to Britain's 60 million; it has an economy of around $14 trillion, compared to Britain's $2 trillion. The EU can replace its exports to the UK internally, and by simply selling to third parties across the globe, with whom it already has trade deals with around 70 countries and trading blocs. The UK sends 40% of its exports to the EU, for which it cannot easily find alternative markets, and it sends about another 30% of its exports to countries with whom it only has trade deals via the EU. Outside the EU, even if it can get replacement trade deals with these other countries, they will not be as favourable to the UK, as those it currently enjoys with them, via the EU, for the simple reason that it is a much smaller market. No doubt, many of those countries will want to do trade deals with Britain, but they will be deals in which they gain greater access to the UK market than they have now, whilst the UK gets less access to their market than they have now. It will mean that countries, like India, will demand much greater access for their students and citizens to come to Britain; hardly an outcome that all of the bigots who voted for Brexit, in the hope of stopping immigration and clearing out all of the non-white people, hoped to achieve. They too, along with those in the coastal fishing communities are likely to find themselves disappointed, and their hopes of “taking back control” dashed in the way they expected it to be interpreted.
The Huawei decision has exposed the problem that Britain faces. Britain had no real choice but to go ahead with the Huawei decision, but it has necessarily pissed off Trump, who we know always takes these things personally, as a result of his gross narcissism. Trump is reportedly fuming that “Briton Trump” has so soon defied his wishes. Only Trump's own impeachment woes have occupied his time, and prevented him from firing off a barrage of Tweets, decrying the decision of Mini-Me Trump. But, Trump reportedly unleashed in a phone call with his doppelgänger. Again, the reality is that Johnson will have to further dismay Trump on other issues, including Trump's hopes to buy Britain, and to open up the NHS to US corporations. He will have to do so, because Britain will have to align itself with the EU, and EU regulations, however much Johnson may fume and insist that he will not, and that Britain will diverge.
It will have to do so, for the simple reason that the EU is, by far, the UK's largest trading partner, and the main destination of UK exports. Whether the UK has a formal trade deal with the EU or not, UK companies will not be able to sell goods and services into the EU, unless they comply with EU standards. Expecting UK based companies to produce part of their output to one set of standards that comply with EU regulations, one that comply with US Standards, one that comply with Chinese standards, and one that comply with UK standards is just not practical. The whole basis of capitalist production is production on a large scale, which requires standardisation, which in turn means common standards and regulations.
In the US, for example, Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Accords, but US state and local governments have themselves adopted higher environmental standards, whilst US companies have followed suit. They do so, because, in order to compete in global markets, those companies must comply with global standards, and, increasingly, its cheaper to produce goods, and services that comply with those standards, as new alternative technologies provide cheaper, more efficient, sources of energy. Unless Britain remains aligned with EU standards, which essentially means remaining aligned with the Single Market, it will not be able to sell goods and services into the EU, and that means that, as some are already doing, UK based firms will move to the EU instead. If Scotland, and/or Northern Ireland, were to leave the UK, they may not even have to move far, geographically, to achieve that.
The idea that the EU is going to give the UK a Canada style deal, whilst the UK sits on its border, undermining EU standards, and thereby undermining the Single Market, drawing in EU workers, when it needs them, and sending them back, when it doesn't, and not participating in the free movement of labour, is absurd. There is no reason the EU would do that. The UK has no cards in its hand to play in these negotiations. It can threaten to walk away as much as it wants, as it has done in the previous phase of talks, but the EU knows that, in reality, the UK cannot do that. It would be damaging to the EU, but it would be immediately catastrophic for the UK. In reality, we are no further forward than we were during all of last year. The threat of a No Deal Brexit has simply been postponed until the end of 2020, or, in reality to June 2020, because a deal would need to be agreed by then, to avoid, an extension of the transition period being required.
What we are likely to see is a lot of hysterics and screaming and shouting, but it will only be to cover the fact that Johnson will know that he will have to capitulate to EU demands.
No comments:
Post a Comment