Review Of 2019 Predictions - Prediction 1 – May Calls A February General Election

On the face of it, this prediction was clearly wrong. In reality, it was remarkably accurate. Clearly, May did not call a General Election in February. However, the prediction went on to say, 

“Put it this way, given the damage that Corbyn's “pro-Brexit” stance is doing to Labour, she would be mad not to, unless, in the meantime, by some miracle, she got her existing deal through parliament.” 

In terms of the logic as to why she would be “mad” not to call an election, it was impeccable, and validated by what transpired. But, also, in terms of the assessment that Corbyn's “pro-Brexit” stance was draining support from Labour, towards the Liberals, Greens, Plaid and SNP, meaning that Labour had no chance of winning an election, it was also 100% correct. 

May did, again, fail to get parliamentary approval for her Withdrawal Agreement, as I predicted. The March 29th Brexit deadline date came and went, as she had to ask for an extension. In May's local council elections, voters took the opportunity to treat them as a proxy for a Brexit referendum. Both the Tory and Labour pro-Brexit positions got hammered. Labour, which should have won huge numbers of Council seats, and taken control of large numbers of councils, actually lost 80 seats. The more Brexity the party, the worse it did. UKIP was effectively wiped out. Despite that, the Tories lost 1300 seats. By contrast, the Liberals gained more than 700 seats, and the Greens gained 200. 

The message was clear. Corbyn's pro-Brexit stance, was a disaster. Yet, he and those around him, like McCluskey, Milne and Murphy, continued to argue the need to push this reactionary nationalist fantasy of a “Jobs First Brexit”. Instead of recognising that, and coming out more clearly for a more militant anti-Brexit position, Labour simply ploughed the same furrow even deeper. Everyone knew that the consequences would be dire come the European parliament elections, at the end of the month. By the time those elections took place, Farage had created his Brexit company, which essentially replaced UKIP, which had been destroyed. 

Those elections played out as expected. The Brexit company picked up all of those disgruntled Tory voters that were angry that May had not been able to implement Brexit. The Tories were reduced to just 9.1% of the vote. It was the worst election result for the Tories in their 185 year history, which in itself, is a lesson for those who want, now, to write off Labour, which still secured 33% of the vote in this last general election, which is significantly better, also, to the 27% it obtained in 1983. Labour's 33% is also better than the 30.3% that Kinnock obtained in 1987, and only slightly worse than the 34% Kinnock obtained in 1992. 

Those trying to portray Labour's defeat as somehow catastrophic are doing so in spite of the facts, and largely for their own political ends. In 1987, Labour won 229 seats, only marginally better than the 202 seats it won this time. The real basis of the Tory majority in this election is the fracturing of the anti-Tory, anti-Brexit vote. In 1987, the SNP won just 3 seats, compared to the 48 today. Adjusting for that, even the seats tally for Labour in 2019 was better than under Kinnock in 1987 and only marginally worse than for 1992. That is consistent with the prediction that Labour's disastrous Brexit position would make it impossible for Labour to win, and would split the Remain vote, allowing the Tories in. 

The only variation to this prediction is that, as it turned out, May was a terrible politician who failed to take advantage of the opportunity that had opened up for her. She failed to get her Withdrawal Deal approved, and she failed to turn the Tory Party hard right to consolidate the Tory Leave vote before calling a General Election. The Tory Party ditched her, and put in someone who would push the strategy I outlined in January. Boris Johnson, was elected Leader. He purged the centrists, he swung hard right to absorb the ERG, and to destroy Farage's Brexit company, he threatened a No Deal Brexit, though there was no chance he would have ever implemented it. And, indeed, when push came to shove, he didn't. The October 31st deadline came and went, and he did not do or die, in a ditch or otherwise. And, despite all of the hyperbole, nor did he get the Withdrawal Agreement reopened, or get rid of the backstop. What he actually did was to capitulate to the EU, and simply accepted the deal that the EU had previously put to Theresa May that places the border down the Irish Sea, rather than on the island of Ireland. It is, indeed, precisely why Johnson's deal is opposed by both Farage and by the DUP.

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