Lyndon Johnson is quoted as saying the first rule of politics is learn to count. That is certainly vital in relation to the forthcoming General Election. For the last three years, the defining issue in British politics has been Brexit. In 2017, the Tories, although they lost their majority, increased their vote and vote share. The reason was that they were seen as being prepared to implement Brexit, as May emphasised that “No Deal, is Better than a Bad Deal”, even though it later became apparent she didn't believe that for a minute. It meant the Tories collapsed the UKIP vote, and consolidated their own core vote. Similarly, Labour increased its vote and vote share significantly, because it pulled in millions of Liberal, Green, Plaid, and even some Tory Remain voters, on the basis that only Labour had any credible chance of preventing the Tory hard Brexit deal that May now appeared to be offering. The truth of that can be seen by the way that Labour has lost those votes, in subsequent elections, back to the Liberals, Greens, Plaid and SNP, as it became clear that Labour's “constructive ambiguity”, on the issue, was being used simply as a cover, by Corbyn, to continue with his own pro-Brexit agenda. Today the large majority of people identify themselves by whether they are a Remain or Leave voter, whereas only a small minority identify themselves by whether they are a Labour or Tory voter, and those identifiers have been getting stronger, particularly amongst Remain voters. Anyone who thinks that the next General Election is going to be about anything other than Brexit is simply deluding themselves.
If the position of the parties on Brexit stays as it is currently, the basic maths of the election amount to this. In Scotland, in SNP/Tory or Tory/SNP marginals, the SNP will win, as the majority of Remain voters (and Remain voters form a significant majority in Scotland) swing behind the SNP. In Tory/Liberal or Liberal/Tory marginals the Liberals will win for the same reason. In SNP/Labour or Labour/SNP marginals, the SNP will win, because Remain voters will see Labour as a Brexit supporting also ran, and so swing behind the SNP. In Liberal/Labour or Labour/Liberal marginals, the Liberals will win for the same reason. In Tory/Labour or Labour/Tory marginals, and some where Labour holds the seat by a larger majority, the Tories will win, because a significant number of Remain supporting Labour voters will switch to the SNP or Liberals, splitting the Labour vote, and letting in the Tories, whose core vote will consolidate.
In short, in Scotland, Labour is likely to lose its existing seats, the Tories will lose most of theirs, and the main beneficiaries will be the SNP.
In England, in Tory/Liberal or Liberal/Tory marginals the Liberals will win, as Labour, Green and some Remain supporting Tories switch to them. That can be seen in many constituencies in the South-East, and places like St. Albans, where there was a large Remain vote in the referendum. We might expect to see something similar in the South-West, where the Liberals were traditionally strong, but that might be complicated by the fact that there was a large Leave vote in that areas, probably to do with the fishing industry. The Liberals may be facilitated in this shift from the Tories if they continue to pick up defections of rebel Tory MP's in the run up to the election. We can expect that a large proportion of the 21 expelled Tory MP's may defect to the Liberals, in a drip feed designed for maximum effect, and there will be quite a few more Tory MP's who are facing the possibility of deselection, who might jump ship in the process.
In Liberal/Labour and Labour/Liberal marginals, the Liberals will win, as Labour Remain voters vote Liberal, along with Green voters, and Tory voters, keen to keep Labour out. In Tory/Labour and Labour/Tory marginals, the Tories will win, because Labour Remain voters will defect to the Liberals, or Greens, thereby splitting the Labour vote, and letting the Tories in.
The overall effect is that the Tories will lose seats to the Liberals, Labour will lose seats to the Liberals, but Labour will also lose seats to the Tories, as the Tory vote consolidates around its hard Brexit position, whilst Labour's vote is split, losing not just the Liberal and Green votes that were lent to it in 2017, but also many young Labour voters, for whom Remain is the primary issue.
In Wales, this same dynamic will play out as in Scotland, with Plaid picking up seats where it is in second place, the Tories losing seats to either Plaid or the Liberals, Labour losing seats to Plaid and the Liberals, but also to the Tories, where the anti-Tory vote is split between Labour, Liberals, Plaid. This will be the case whether the Liberals, Green and Plaid form any formal pact or not, as voters themselves simply vote tactically based upon which Remain candidate has the best chance in each particular seat.
Overall, as things stand, the Tories will lose some seats in Scotland, Wales, the South-East, and some seats in the South-West. The SNP, Plaid and Liberals will gain, with the Liberals being the largest gainers amongst these. Labour will lose seats in Scotland, Wales, the South-East and South-West to the SNP, Plaid and Liberals, but will also lose seats to the Tories elsewhere in the country as the Remain vote is split. The Liberals, Plaid, SNP will gain at the expense of Labour and Tories, but not by as much as the Tories will gain from the splitting of the Labour vote. The result will be, therefore, that the Tories will get a majority, that I expect will be between 50-100 seats. And, this will be a majority for a hard right, hard Brexit Tory party, thereby given a mandate to implement its policies for the next five years.
The only hope that that might not happen is, as I wrote yesterday, if Labour dramatically shifts position, as a result of Labour conference. It will require that Labour commits not only to revoking Article 50, but also commits to a Labour government seeking to revoke Article 50 retrospectively if necessary, and to taking Britain back into the EU if the Tories take us out. Only on that basis can Labour stop its vote draining away to the other Remain supporting parties, and the consequent loss of seats.
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