Political Chaff

When military aircraft are under attack, they throw out chaff, in the form of aluminium strips and flares, to confuse and distract the radar guided and heated seeking munitions being fired at them. Boris Johnson's government is throwing out lots of political chaff, and the media and opposition politicians are chasing after it. 

We have, in the courts, today, an example of that. Johnson's parliamentary coup had the effect, for him, not only that it meant that he has given himself an extra five weeks of election campaigning time, during which he can use all of the facilities of government for propaganda, using the publicity platform it provides, whilst being free of any parliamentary scrutiny, but it has meant that opposition politicians, consumed by parliamentary cretinism, have spent large amounts of time trying to find constitutional objections to his actions, including dangerously bringing the ruling class's unelected judges into the political arena, to pronounce upon the legality of the government's actions. Ironically, although all the focus in that litigation is upon the advice that the government, via the Privy Council gave to the Monarch, the actual decision to prorogue is that of the Monarch herself. It is the Queen that prorogues parliament not the government. So, if the courts decide that the prorogation was unlawful, they will actually be saying that the Monarch acted illegally. Under the British constitution that is impossible because the Queen is above the law, which is why she doesn't have to pay tax, have a number plate and so on. Rather like Judge Dredd, Lizzy can say “I am the law!” 

But, the fanfare over the Supreme Court hearing, into the legality of the suspension of parliament, is only one piece of chaff. Yesterday, we had all of the noise over Johnson failing to take part in the press conference in Luxembourg. Had Johnson had to take part, it would simply have exposed, for anyone who doesn't already realise it, that he has no alternative proposals to put to the EU, to deal with the Irish Backstop etc. Failing to be at the podium has simply meant that all of the media today has discussed that rather than the fact that Johnson has no alternative proposals. The noise simply dissolves into Remainer media outlets decrying Johnson's failure to participate, whilst the Brexiter media outlets focus on the rudeness of the EU, and its conspiracy to set up Johnson  etc. 

And, of course, continuing alongside all of that is the endless pointless discussions over what Johnson will do to get around the Benn Act, which requires him to send a letter to the EU requesting an extension, if no deal has been agreed by 19th October. Of course, the Tory media love all of that, because it means they can engage in their favourite pastime of bringing in lots of supposed experts and talking heads to mull over all the possible scenarios and gambits that might be used to get around the situation. Its just another example of them chasing after the chaff rather than focusing on the substantive issue. The same thing happens when they break off occasional useful studio discussions on various topics, to go over to some live event, where, often as not, all we get is an empty screen waiting for something to happen, and where, when something does happen, its pretty much a non-event anyway. 

The fact remains that none of the various scenarios of what Johnson might do, so as to get around the Benn Act are realistic, because the fact remains that he does not have a majority in parliament. Whatever clever ruse he might come up with would come up against that basic fact. He can't currently push a No Deal through, because he does not have the votes. He would undoubtedly like a deal with the EU, but that deal amounts to the EU simply dropping the Backstop. All of the parliamentary shenanigans are essentially to that end, in the belief – which Johnson has always had – that the EU needs a deal with Britain, and so, faced with No Deal, will, at the last minute, drop the backstop. The failure to present any alternative proposals to Europe is simply part of that strategy of conveying to the EU that he is serious about leaving without a deal. 

All of the stuff about a deal that cuts out Northern Ireland is also just chaff. Johnson might ditch the DUP down the road if, after a General Election, he has a working majority without them, but, for now, he has no majority for any deal that does not deal with the Irish Backstop. The parliamentary maths have not changed, and they will not change without an election. Johnson hopes that with this mad man negotiating strategy, taken from the Trump play book, the EU might think he will actually just crash out, and so will drop the backstop to get a deal, which is the strategy that Johnson has had from before the 2016 referendum. But, again, the reality has not changed. The EU is not going to agree to anything that undermines the Single Market, which Johnson's requirements would. Moreover, the EU knows, whatever Johnson's theatrics, that Britain cannot go for a crash-out No Deal any more now than it could under Theresa May. The EU knows what cards are in the UK's hand. 

The only scenario in which Johnson could flout the will of parliament, and push through a No Deal, with all of the chaos that entails, is if he is prepared to go full Bonaparte, to defy the law, and, as the chaos ensues, to employ the Contingency Powers Act, so as to install martial law. That is not going to happen, at this stage, because Johnson has not prepared the ground for it, yet. It would require shutting down parliament, and putting troops on the streets to enforce government diktat. But, with the courts themselves not in Johnson's camp, even if not yet necessarily acting to all-out frustrate him, they would certainly come more into play in such circumstances. Moreover, although Bonapartism rests upon the petit-bourgeoisie, including the representatives of that class in the military, in the officer ranks – military coups are always the work of colonels, and similar ranks, not Generals - and Brexit and the Tory Party also rests upon that same petit-bourgeoisie – in the British Army, as a professional Army, the Generals have a powerful position, reinforced by discipline. The Generals represent the dominant section of the ruling-class, and the dominant section of the ruling class does not support Brexit; it certainly does not support a Brexit that depends upon the government tearing up the constitution, and ripping away the facade of bourgeois democracy. 

Johnson and Cummings know that. It is why they and all their representatives have emphasised that, of course, Johnson will not break the law. But, in that case, they could not have been clearer about what their actual course of action will be. If Johnson will not send the letter to Brussels, and he will not break the law, the only option is that, come 19th October, he will simply resign, and invite the Queen to call on Corbyn to become Prime Minister. The opposition don't want to confront that reality, because they placed a considerable amount of faith in all of their parliamentary games to try to pin Johnson down, and force him to ask for an extension, so as to undermine his credibility, and ensure that his votes leach away to Farage. They don't want to accept that all of their games simply played into Johnson's hands. He can now claim the mantle of saviour of the Brexit nation, of standing firm on his principles against a parliament that wants to surrender, and wanted him to surrender; he can force Corbyn to have to seek the extension, thereby encouraging Labour Leave voters to come over to the Tories; he can force the Liberals, Chukas and others to have to eat humble pie, and back Corbyn so as to be able to get the extension of Article 50 passed, or else expose the incompetent nature of the rabble alliance, as they fall apart, unable to do that. 

And, having succeeded in extending Article 50, Corbyn would then have to call the General Election that Johnson needs, in order to change the maths in parliament. It means that Johnson will have crushed the Brexit Party, as he consolidates the Brexiteers behind his Tories, whilst the rabble alliance, fighting like rats in a sack, and with Labour still dithering in no man's land, loses shed loads of votes to the Liberals, and SNP, allows Johnson to win a clear parliamentary majority. 

That is the target that the opposition politicians should be focusing on, and not simply chasing after all of the political chaff that Johnson and Cummings are throwing out to distract them