Boris Johnson continued May's empty threat to leave the EU without a deal. He has now issued an empty threat to withdraw the whip from rebel Tory MP's.
The threat to leave the EU without a deal is empty, because it means the UK saying “give me what I want or I'll blow my brains out.” Now, much as the EU does not want to have UK brains splattered all over it, as a result of Johnson committing UK suicide, its not a sufficiently unpleasant experience as to make it do something it doesn't want to do. And, for that reason the EU is in a win-win position as far as No Deal is concerned, as I wrote on Saturday. Either, it will turn out to be just as much an empty threat under Johnson as it was for May, and he will have to abandon it, having had his bluff called, or else Britain will go ahead with it, and suffer a catastrophe, which will cause it to quickly have to apply for emergency readmission on supplicants terms, which will also undermine all of the other right-wing populists across Europe.
Its obvious that the Tories, like Johnson, have absolutely no idea of how to negotiate. As I've written before, that's because they have only ever had to negotiate from a bosses' perspective, where the employer always has the whip hand against workers. Under those conditions, the idea of walking away, is possible, but for workers it never is, because, in the end, workers must live, and to live you need to work, meaning workers can always be starved back to work by bosses. Of course, the Tories pushing for Brexit, have the strengthening of bosses' position to do that as one of their main reasons for wanting to Brexit through. Workers know that when you are negotiating from an innate position of weakness, you have to rely in negotiations on other methods. The most important of those methods is solidarity, the ability to appeal to other workers to support you in your demands.
The Tories cannot conceive that Britain is in a very weak negotiating position compared to the EU. They still view the world as it was a century ago, when Britain had a global colonial Empire, and ruled the waves. That is certainly how the majority of all those elderly Tory voters, who are the ones that voted for Brexit, still see the world. They are thoroughly deluded. If the Tories had wanted to negotiate a better deal, they should have learned from the workers' play book, and built solidarity from others across Europe. But, of course, that is completely at odds with the Tories mentality and their obsession with Brexit. Some of the more fanciful Brextremists, like Kate Hoey, tried to suggest that Brexit might get support from people in the Irish Republic who might push for Irexit. Total delusion. In fact, support for the EU has strengthened further in Ireland.
But, Johnson's latest empty threat is, if anything, even more absurd. He has threatened Tory MP's, who might vote against him, in parliament this week, that they will have the whip withdrawn from them, and be disqualified from standing as Tory MP's. He is quite within his rights to have such a position, of course, just as Labour should make it clear to the 26 Labour MP's, who have said they might vote with Johnson, that they can expect the same fate. A party, on vital issues, such as a Vote of Confidence, and in relation to Brexit, has a right to demand loyalty from its MP's, and to take action when its missing. The point is, however, that its an empty threat, and so just as pointless as the No Deal Brexit threat.
Many, if not most, of those Tory MP's are already under threat of deselection by their local associations, because 80% of Tory Party members, and their voters support a No Deal Brexit. The rebel Tory MP's know their days are numbered anyway, so the threat of simply bringing that forward is pretty meaningless. The sensible ones amongst them also know that, if the Tories push through a No Deal Brexit, it will lead to chaos and the rapid demise of the Tory government, and probably the destruction of the Tory Party itself. If they have any view of their long-term career, therefore, they know that they cannot be tarnished with having been complicit in that tragedy.
But, Johnson's threat is empty for other reasons. The Tories, even with the support of the DUP, already have no majority in parliament. On No Deal Brexit, they are in a small minority, and latest polls suggest that reflects the position in the electorate. Only 55% even of Leave voters support a No Deal Brexit, whilst a majority of all voters now support Remain as against Leave. The majority against a No Deal Brexit is now around 75% to 25%. By threatening to withdraw the whip, Johnson has simply taken away any leverage he might have had, because, in doing so, he puts his government into the position of being a minority government. The reality is that those Tory MP's, come any General Election, would then be in a position, depending on local circumstances, either to stand as an Independent Conservative, or to follow the example, of the other Tory rebels, and simply cross the floor to join the Liberals, with whom they might have the chance of holding on to their seat, and even being offered some front bench shadow position. Either way, it would split the Tory vote, at the same time as it is still split on its Right, by Farage's Brexit Company. It would mean almost certain defeat for the Tories in that election.
Given Corbyn's shift of position to oppose Brexit, and the shameful stance of the Liberals in refusing to back Corbyn as caretaker Prime Minister to stop a No Deal Brexit, it would be a gift for Labour, leaving the door to 10 Downing Street wide open for Corbyn to walk into. I doubt that is actually what Johnson is seeking to achieve.
Wouldn't Johnson's best strategy be to hold the election in the first week of November (perhaps using royal prerogative to change the date after tricking Labour into agreeing to an October election), thus forcing No Deal Brexit (and thus nullifying the Brexit Party threat) while ensuring that the General Election takes place before the full extent of the catastrophe becomes clear?
ReplyDeleteAren't you (like many other Remainers) exaggerating the importance of the Empire in Brexiteer thinking?
ReplyDeleteThe heaviest Brexit votes came from the baby boomer generation who scarcely experienced the Empire (the very old people who did experience both the Empire and post-WWII austerity – if not WWII itself – are substantially less Brexity). And Boris Johnson himself is Generation X!
Most Leave voters will have been motivated by nostalgia for the nationalist Britain of the postwar era (as well as for World War II: Lincolnshire may have been the most Brexity county of all because of the strength of RAF Bomber Command nostalgia there). The Brexiteer politicians themselves look more to the free-trading Edwardian era. And it is clear that both believe that Britain's negotiating power now stems from Britain's status as Europe's consumer of last resort – note the rhetoric about how Germany's car manufacturers will ensure a good Brexit deal.
George,
ReplyDeleteI've written another post this morning on the question of a GE, and Blair's response to it. But, I'll be writing another post that will appear this afternoon, on Johnson's REAL nuclear option in that regard, and why the idea that opposing a vote for a GE would be very mistaken.
On the question of Empire, its the idea of Empire that is the important factor, not the actual experience of it. The strongest Leave Vote is from those over 65. That is those who grew up listening to "Family Favourites" on a Sunday Morning on radio, as Cliff Michelmore transsmitted messages from families to their sons serving in the armed forces in Cyprus, Aden, Kenya and all the other outposts of the Empire, and who grew up with geography books where most of the globe was painted in pink, not because it was part of a socialist bloc, but because it was the colour denoting the scale and hegemony of the British Empire.
For all of those people, what happened afterwards, was a diversion from the true path of British history. Like my father in law, who once proclaimed that India would have been better off, and avoided all of the famine, if Britain had just continued the Empire. They see the disposal of the Empire as an act of betrayal, and they see joining the EEC/EU as simply another aspect of that betrayal, preventing Britain as one of God's chosen countries (and many of them even if they never set foot in a Church still remain in the tradition of that Christian nationalist, and that explains why they see Brexit as being an article of faith). Its why this kind of bigotry cannot be addressed by appeals to reason.