A number of pundits, as well as opposition politicians, are calling on Boris Johnson to resign as a result of the Supreme Court ruling that the prorogation of parliament was null and void. The idea he will do so is absurd, and anyone who thinks he will has not been keeping up. In fact, he's already said he will not stand down.
Johnson's strategy from the start has been to position himself as the "People's Champion", or more correctly the champion of the Tory base, which is pretty much coterminous with the majority that voted for Brexit. His strategy has been to say that, whereas Theresa May was never committed to a No Deal Brexit, he is prepared to carry it out - "Do or Die". He obviously points out that the Liberals have no intention of implementing Brexit and have acted throughout to thwart it, but he knows that he is not going to win any Liberal votes, so his hard No Deal Brexit position is developed in complete disregard for them. He knows he has already lost some Remainer Tory voters to the Liberals, but unlike the clueless Corbyn, he realises that for every Remainer voter he loses to the Liberals, by his No Deal Brexit stance, he wins back 4 core Tory Leave voters from the Brexit Party that had been lost due to May's equivocation.
Johnson's trump card, indeed is the pro-Brexit stance of Labour, because Johnson knows that, whilst that stance gains Labour no votes back from the Tories or Brexit Party, it does cause Labour to shed loads of votes to the Liberals, Greens, Plaid and the SNP. That splitting of the vote is unlikely to be enough for any of these other parties to gain sufficient seats to gain a majority, but it is enough to ensure that Labour will lose lots of seats in Labour/Tory marginals, in places like Stoke. His ace in the hole is the British Communist Party and Morning Star, along with its supporters like Corbyn and McCluskey inside the Labour Party. These Stalinists have always wanted Brexit. The Morning Star called for a No Deal/WTO Brexit, and called on voters to abstain in the elections, earlier in the year, in protest at the Labour Party's even glacial shift away from its pro-Brexit stance. Now those Stalinists, by their usual bureaucratic means, have imposed a pro-Brexit stance on Labour that ensures it has no chance of winning the election, and thereby guarantees a win for Johnson, who will thereby bring about the No Deal/WTO Brexit they seek. This is one of the visible manifestations of the Red-Brown coalition that brings together reactionary nationalists from both the Right and from the fake left.
Johnson's strategy all along has been to position himself as a martyr in the case of Brexit. It is why he was quite happy to turn his government into a minority government by expelling 21 Remainer Tory MP's. When parliament passed the Benn Act compelling hims to ask for an extension of Article 50, it was music to his ears, because it again improved his martyr's credentials, and allowed him to take to the rostrum once more to denounce the Surrender Act, and the traitors that were selling out the country that he was trying to defend by pushing through the Brexit the country had voted for.The Brexit voting public were more than happy for him to prorogue parliament when someone explained to them what it meant, as a means of forcing though his Brexit policy. Some of them, illustrating the way in which the country is heading towards Bonapartism, were heard to express the opinion that it should be closed down altogether to let Johnson get on with governing. No doubt many of them see parliament in the same way that Brenda from Bristol sees elections as being much too cumbersome and an imposition upon them.
And, of course, Johnson has not intention of asking for an extension as required by the Benn Act, and nor does he intend to break the law by refusing to implement it. His intention, all along, was to resign at the last minute, on 19th October, again demonstrating his commitment to the people and to implement their will as expressed in the referendum, but having been hamstrung by that tedious parliament of Remainers. As I've set out before, Johnson was in a trap, but the opposition have sprung that trap for him. The trap was that he could not call an election without having implemented Brexit, because that would have seen his vote haemorrhage to the Brexit Party, but neither could he implement his No Deal Brexit prior to an election, because he knows that its consequence will be catastrophic, and so seeing its impact, voters would rush away from him, and he would likewise lose. Johnson needed to be able to retain his credibility as a No Dealer, whilst not actually having to implement No Deal. Parliament via the Benn Act, provided him with that opportunity. Come October 19th all that Johnson has to do is resign, and invite the Queen to call on Corbyn to forma government. Johnson would then utilise his platform to play the martyr role, leaving Corbyn to carry the can. But, also Johnson knows that the rampant factionalism, and hostility to Corbyn, heightened by the fact that Corbyn only has the support of around 20 Labour MP's, means that there is more than a good chance that they would fight like rats in a sack and fail to come to any agreement on forming a caretaker government anyway.
But, now Johnson's position has been strengthened even further. Without actually attacking the judges as biased, which he can probably leave to the likes of the Daily Mail, Express and other gutter press, he was able to say that whilst he will abide by the courts decision, he disagreed with it. In the eyes of the Leave voters, this is just another example of the elite attacking their champion, and acting in a biased and undemocratic manner. Its good for quite a few tens of thousands of Brexit Party votes moving back from the Brexit Party to Johnson.
Johnson has also continually pointed to the fact that Labour has repeatedly refused to call the General Election, they have been saying for the last 2 years they wanted. The reason Labour hasn't agreed to that election is because they thought they had been clever with the Benn Act, forcing Johnson to demand an extension which would have destroyed his credibility, but Johnson had no intention of making that error. On the contrary, he intended to use it to his advantage in presenting himself a martyr ready to die in a ditch rather than succumb to their treasonous demands for him to ask for such an extension.
But, now the opposition are in a bind. The court ruling against Johnson means that parliament resumes tomorrow. Johnson will not resign, at most he may make some slight apology for having given misleading advice to the Queen. The opposition are asking for his resignation, but if he does not, then logically they must put down a motion of no confidence in the government. Being in a minority of 45, it might be thought that the Tories would be bound to lose. But, most of that deficit is the result of the expulsion of the 21 Tory Remainers. Some of those, like David Gauke have already said they will still vote for the government. But, if the motion is carried that is where the real problems for the opposition arise.
The opposition parties will have 14 days in which to come up with a replacement Prime Minister, and government. Labour have quite rightly said that the nomination for that post has to be Corbyn. But, there is no majority in parliament for Corbyn. Not only will the Tories vote against him, but so will the Liberals and Chukas et al. So, its not at all clear that there would be any basis for Corbyn to be called to the palace. If Johnson resigned, he would have advised the Queen to invite Corbyn, but if Johnson is forced from office in a No Confidence Vote, that no longer applies. So, if Corbyn can't command a majority who would? Swinson has proposed Ken Clarke, or Harriet Harman. It is inconceivable that any Labour MP who does not want to face the wrath of their CLP would vote for Clarke to be PM, when the rebel Tories and Liberals had just voted against Corbyn. Even less could Harman even allow her name to go forward, under such conditions, and again any Labour MP that voted for her would be facing instant expulsion. The only way that could happen would be if the Labour Party split.
It was suggested at the weekend that had Watson's position been abolished the majority of Labour MP's were, already, at that point, ready to split and form a new party with Watson at its head. That is what they have been planning for most of this year. Corbyn is in a dire position, because he is the captive in parliament of the Right, Blair-Rights and soft left. He has the support of only around 20 Labour MP's. If pretty much the rest of the Labour MP's split, and joined up with the Liberals, Chukas and others, it would leave Labour in tatters. Yet even that formation would be unlikely to command a majority. That kind of chaos and confusion would be music to Johnson's ears, indeed he must have looked on at the shenanigans of the Stalinists at Labour conference over the last few days with a huge Cheshire Cat like smile on his face.
So, having won a No Confidence Vote, parliament is unable to form itself around a candidate that can command a majority. Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, if no government is formed within 14 days of the No Confidence Vote, then a General Election must be called. So consider the timeline. Parliament reconvenes tomorrow. It passes a no confidence motion in Johnson's government. Johnson does not have to ask for the extension until 19th October, so he is under no pressure on that front. The rabble alliance fall out likes rats in a sack, unable to agree on a candidate for PM that can command a majority, Labour, already falling apart following this week's conference, may split. Fourteen days passes, and 9th October arrives, with no chosen candidate for Prime Minister. So, parliament must be dissolved, and a General Election called. There is at this point no Prime Minister in place to carry out the instructions of the Benn Act, to request an extension of Article 50, and no one else with authority to do so. It takes five weeks for an election to take place.
That takes us to 13th November, before the election, and, even assuming a government was formed at that point, Brexit would already have happened two weeks earlier, on 31st October, because that is what the law currently states must happen! Its not clear that the Opposition are actually bright enough to realise that this is the consequence of their actions as their parliamentary cretinism has meant that they have been too clever for their own good in trying to play parliamentary games to try to stitch up Johnson. But, if they are, or if someone points this blog post out to them, then they might seriously want to consider the wisdom of actually passing that No Confidence motion in the first place. But, if they fail to put down that no confidence motion what does that say about them, and oh what fun Johnson would have with that scenario.
It seems to me that the opposition should enjoy their court win while they can, because the reality seems to be that in all their manoeuvring and games, they have failed to notice that Cummings and Johnson have stitched them up like a kipper, whether one that complies with EU regulations or otherwise.
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