Boris Johnson has done all he can to try to convince the EU that, this time, Britain really does mean it, and that if it does not get what it wants, it really, really will, this time, blow its brains out, so there. The EU, which appears, understandably, to have become increasingly tired with these childish tantrums, thrown by Britain, has now decided to take Johnson at his word, and accept that he really does intend to blow out the UK's brains, and that the UK parliament and ruling class are not going to stop him. The EU now say that their central projection is for a No Deal Brexit, in which the UK will be thrown into chaos, Northern Ireland will effectively be destroyed, as a border is erected between it, and the Republic, which will probably result in the need for a border poll, as the people of the province see the only way out of such a calamity being unification with the South. The EU do not want such a situation, but they have already taken steps to ensure that they are standing far enough away from the UK, so that they do not get too much blood and brains splattered on them, when Johnson pulls the trigger.
The reality is, of course, that Johnson has boxed himself into a ridiculous corner. He has no intention of carrying through with a No Deal Brexit. He knows, as well as anyone else, that it will be utterly catastrophic, for Britain, and, thereby, for him as Prime Minister, and for the Tories as a party. Its one thing to consider the option of a "Managed No Deal", whereby the various side deals, to cover things like air safety certificates, licences for hauliers to operate in the EU, and so on, might be made into permanent arrangements, and extended across a wider sphere of activities, but if Britain simply crashes out on October 31st, as Johnson is proposing, and the EU now appear willing to let him do, there would be total chaos.
The existing side deals, only cover a small part of the UK's dealings with the EU; they are limited in scope, in each area, and they are temporary. Most last for only 6-9 months, and, for example, in relation to licences for hauliers, are available for only a small fraction of the number of lorries that would be seeking access to the EU. Moreover, if the UK crashes out with the kind of animus that Johnson and his team are encouraging, with talk of not paying the UK's debts of around £36 billion etc., there is no reason why the EU would even take a favourable approach, in respect of those areas where some deals have been reached. If the UK reneges on its debts to the EU, not only will that have a bad effect on the UK's credit, in the rest of the world, but the EU might seek to obtain compensation by seizing some UK assets in the EU etc. At the very least, it would not adopt a friendly attitude, whilst it would have every reason to provide support for Ireland and Scotland, further enhancing the possibility of a break-up of the UK.
The fact is that the EU knows that it holds all the cards. Even if Johnson really meant what he says, it would be Britain that would be thrown into chaos, not the EU, which would come out of the situation even more enhanced in its position relative to the UK. The likelihood of the UK having to make an emergency appeal to be let back into the club are extremely high, and the club would no doubt insist that if they let the UK back in, it would be on much less favourable terms than it currently enjoys.
So, the EU has nothing to lose in calling Johnson's bluff, and saying, "Go ahead, blow your brains out."
Johnson is boxed in having ridiculously continued with this bluff that everyone, including the EU, knows is a bluff. But, he can't back down either. At least not this side of an election, because that would also be his end, and the end of the Tories, as the Faragists swarmed to devour their rotting corpse. Johnson has to pursue his ridiculous bluff, in order to destroy the Faragists, ahead of an election. That way, he has hope of being able to win that election, given Labour's continued confusion and dithering, which has also split the anti-Brexit vote. Johnson has to perform a balancing act. He can't actually push ahead with Brexit ahead of the election, because that would lead to disaster, but nor can he withdraw from Brexit ahead of the election either, because that would spell electoral disaster. He has to continue to present the idea that he really will do it, if only he can get it through parliament.
What he really hopes is that parliament will stop him, and in that way he can blame parliament, for something he would otherwise have had to do anyway. That could still happen, and a National Government might be formed to stop Brexit. But, it might not. Its likely that, in the coming weeks, the current slide in the Pound will continue and accelerate. That will make it easier for parliament to stop Brexit, as it will also mean the Bank of England has to step in to raise interest rates to protect the currency, and to fight rising inflation. But, all of the Brextremists have continued to pursue the narrative that they are prepared to suffer economic hardship - they can do that, because in reality it will not be them, but the worst off in society that will be the biggest losers - in order to pursue their ideological windmills.
Johnson's hope must be that parliament stops him, so that he can call an election, in which he will fight on the basis of pushing through a Managed No Deal, with a negotiating period built upon it, in which a Canada Style Free Trade Agreement is introduced. But, he may still have, in the back of his mind, the original position he had several years ago that it might be possible to negotiate to stay in the EU, but with yet further concessions. That is unlikely to ever happen. A Canada style Free Trade Agreement will also take many years to negotiate, because, unlike most free trade deals, it will be a deal in which both parties are trying to manage the extent to which they both become worse off, rather than better off, as a consequence. Nor does such a deal answer the problem of the Irish border, whose solution increasingly looks like coming from a United Ireland, which will further accelerate the break up of Britain.
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