Listen to the Tory media, or to Nigel Farage, or Steve Baker, and you would think that last night was a tremendous victory for the Brextremists. But, of course, it wasn't. It was a very bad night for the Brextremists. Once again, they showed they cannot get beyond support from around 30% of the population, leaving 70% of the population opposed to them. The Brextremists cannot get beyond the same 30% of the population that we have known, for a long time, are bigots, not necessarily hard line racists or fascists, but, generally speaking, people of the much older generation, who grew up at a time when socially conservative ideas were indoctrinated into people from childhood, and when notions of Britain's natural superiority, and right to Empire were commonplace. They are generally people who are less well educated, or educated at a time when learning was based upon rote, and an acceptance of truisms, rather than critical reasoning, of people whose ideas are formed as much on the basis of faith as on logic.
Farage's Brexit company topped the poll, in England, though not in Scotland or Northern Ireland, but only because it embodied nearly the whole pro-Brexit vote. Getting around 32%, in what amounts to a proxy for an EU referendum, is then pretty bad for the Brextremists. Add in the remaining 3.3% for UKIP, and the total Brextremist vote comes to only 36%. Total up the vote shares for the clearly anti-Brexit parties, Liberals, Greens, SNP, Plaid, Chukas and the total is 40.4%, showing a clear majority for the anti-Brexit forces. But, the real situation is even more dire than that for the Brextremists.
The Tories vote share collapsed to just 9.1%. Even on a generous reading for the Brextremists, this is a vote for some kind of Brexit deal, based on Theresa May's failed Withdrawal Agreement, rather than any kind of No Deal Brexit. But, in truth, all of the Tory Leave vote has gone to Farage's Brexit company. At least the large majority of that 9.1% vote for the Tories has to be counted as Tory Remainers, who cannot bring themselves to vote for any other party. As the Brextremsts never tire of telling us, after all, Theresa May, was a closet Remainer, in their view.
And, those same Brextremists have spoken out of both sides of their mouth when it comes to Labour too. On the one hand, they use Labour's disastrous decision to fight the 2017 General Election on the basis of a decision to “respect” the referendum result, as evidence that Labour voters in 2017 were all Brexit supporters, even though its quite clearly the case that that isn't true, and that 75% of Labour voters in 2017, wanted Brexit stopped. On the other hand, the Brextremists have tried to claim that Labour was an anti-Brexit party, trying to frustrate their goal of pushing through a No Deal Brexit. The truth is, of course, that Labour, as a party, is massively anti-Brexit. When it comes to Labour members, 90% want to stop Brexit, and 75% of its voters feel the same way. But, Labour's leadership is pro-Brexit, and, so far, has done everything it can to facilitate it. That is why so many Labour Party members, joined Labour voters in rejecting the party in these elections, and lent their vote instead to the Liberals, Greens, SNP, or Plaid.
It was always going to be the case that the Brextremists then tried to claim that the Labour vote was a vote for Brexit, even though its clear that, in fact, as with the Tories it mostly represents Labour voters that back Remain, but who could not, out of tribal loyalty, bring themselves, even on this one occasion, to vote for some other more openly anti-Brexit party. Even if we take half of the Tory vote, and give it to the Brextremists, we have to give the other half to the anti-Brexit vote. But, in line with the voting surveys, we would have to say that at least 75% of the Labour vote was from Remainers. That would mean that the total Leave vote comes to just over 40%, whereas the total anti-Brexit vote comes to around 60%.
That is in line with what polls have been showing of a clear shift to reversing Brexit. The dynamic is entirely in the direction of stopping Brexit, and that can only continue in the weeks ahead, especially given that so much of the Brexit vote is based on very old people, who are dying off by the day. Had Labour been actively arguing to stop Brexit for the last three years, the majority against Brexit, today, would be even higher. It would have enabled the Labour Party to advance a progressive social-democratic agenda for Europe, and Labour itself would have a commanding lead in the polls ahead of any forthcoming General Election. The results announced last night, show that Corbyn must either dramatically and convincingly shift his position to oppose Brexit, or he will have to be shifted himself, and make way for a Leader capable of leading that fight.
Labour's strategy, based upon a reactionary nationalist agenda, has been disastrous. In 2015, the Liberals were all but destroyed, following their coalition with the Tories. In 2017, that process was continued. At a time when Corbyn's Labour should have been stamping down the ground solidly over the Liberals graves, it has instead bent down and given them a hand to be resurrected, and not just resurrected, but given new life to even overtake Labour itself. It has had the same effect in respect of the Greens, of the SNP, and of Plaid in Wales. And, without holding all of the ground that it has thereby given up, Labour has no chance of winning a General Election. For Labour to come third in Wales is a disaster, only surpassed by its performance in Scotland.
But, for the Left inside Labour, the strategy has been even worse. For the last three years, Corbyn has assuaged the forces of the right, the Blair-rights and soft lefts, on a range of issues, whenever he has come under pressure. He has essentially stood back, whilst left-wing members have been witch-hunted, he has abandoned positions of principle whenever challenged by the Tory media. You might have thought, therefore, that, as the right and Blair-rights seek out their next chance to overthrow him, he would be keen to retain the support of the vast majority of rank and file members that got him elected. Instead, he has poked his finger in their eye, with his reactionary policy on Brexit, and his support for an end to free movement. In so doing, he has massively strengthened the position of the right-wing opposition to him in the PLP, and elsewhere.
The good thing is that the Chukas disgraced themselves. Their one reason for existence was to oppose Brexit, but they are too incompetent even for that. Set aside all of the failures on practical organising, which, of course, in the past, they could leave to all of the minions, whose only function they see as being to get them elected to cushy positions, and what the Chuka's managed to do was to split the anti-brexit vote. Their 3.4% got them no MEP's, so it was votes wasted. Had those votes gone to Liberal or Green, or SNP or Plaid candidates, it would have increased the number of anti-Brexit MEP's elected. In fact, the same can be said for all of the anti-Brexit parties, whose failure to put up a joint slate, or make proper tactical arrangements ahead of the vote, led to fewer anti-Brexit MEP's being elected than would otherwise have been the case, given the actual anti-Brexit vote share.
Labour is now talking more about coming round to supporting another referendum. It is too little too late. The reality is that the only option left now is to commit to revoking Article 50. The Tories in the next few weeks will replace May with a hard line Brexiteer. The best option, as I wrote yesterday, would be for them to elect Steve Baker, but its more likely to be Bojo or Raab. The reason Baker would be better, is that he is the hardest Brexiteer they have. When he has to capitulate, rather than pushing through a No Deal Brexit, the gig will be up. The Brextremists, including Baker himself, in his announcement that he might stand, have set up their betrayal narrative, that Bojo, Raab etc. buckled and supported May's MV3.
The truth is that May was probably a Leaver all the time. She appointed hard line Brexiteers to all the top positions responsible for Brexit. She appointed Bojo Foreign Secretary, Fox as International Trade Secretary, and Davis as Brexit Secretary. Inside the Brexit Department, Davis was supported by uber Brextremists like Baker himself, as well as Raab, and Suella Braverman. Yet, over three years, they failed to bring in a hard Brexit deal. They claim, consistent with the betrayal narrative, that they were undermined by May and her officials, but, in that case, why did they not all resign, en bloc, as soon as that became apparent, and call May out? Why did Raab simply replace Davis, with Baker and Braverman moving up within the department? No, the truth was that reality imposed itself, and the hard Brexiteers put in charge of bringing in Brexit found it impossible to do. They used May and her officials as a useful scapegoat, when they found that all the lies they had told about Brexit being the easiest thing to achieve were rebounding on them.
The best scenario would be for Baker to be elected Tory leader, and then start negotiating for his No Deal Brexit. The impossibility of that would then quickly be established. Probably, as soon as his election as Leader was announced, the Pound would collapse, the UK Stock Market would go into free fall, UK Gilts would crater, and interest rates be sent soaring. He would quickly announce an abandonment of Brexit, and a General Election. But, the election of Bojo or Raab, only strings out that process a little longer. It does not change the underlying reality.
A Tory Brextremist will not be able to negotiate the great deal they promised, because it is not possible. A No Deal Brexit is also impossible for the reasons set out yesterday. The UK will not get a new Prime Minister until the late Summer, and the EU Commission, with whom it must negotiate, will not be in place until after the October 31st. deadline date for Brexit. Whoever is the Prime Minister will be faced with the reality that they cannot negotiate a Brexit deal, and a No Deal Brexit is economically and politically impossible. The only option now possible is to revoke Article 50. Labour should be honest about that, and begin to mobilise for that outcome.
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