Brexit Is Dead In The Water

Whatever happens, now, including May getting her deal voted through in the next two weeks, it is obvious that Brexit is dead in the water.

Can May Get Her Deal Approved?

To get her current deal approved, May must win over the DUP, a large section of the ERG, and/or sufficient right-wing Labour MP's.  In total, she requires an additional 75 votes.  That is a tall order.

The DUP

The government bought DUP votes in 2017 for £1 billion.  May has been throwing government money around in the hope of bribing right-wing Labour MP's, to also give her their support, though some of them, might do so even without a bribe.  The government has been talking to the DUP again in the last couple of days, to try to get them to fall into line.  For the DUP, the determining requirement is that Northern Ireland not be cut adrift from the rest of Britain, from its single market, and wider polity.  When may originally agreed with the EU, in 2018, to a backstop in which NI, would remain tied to the existing Customs Union and Single Market, the DUP baulked, and May had to retreat.  The current backstop, which thereby keeps the whole of the UK, rather than just NI, in the Single Market and Customs Union, is the result. 

In the end, the DUP do not care whether Britain as a whole remains in the Customs Union and Single Market - in fact, they probably prefer that situation, because it ensures that trade between NI and the Republic continues unchanged - so long as, NI is not separated off from the rest of Britain, which they sees as the start of NI, being merged into a United Ireland.  Provided, the DUP can be assured that they will not be cut adrift, they will be able to support May's Deal.  Their concern is essentially that, because the Backstop ties the whole of Britain into the CU and Single Market, effectively, forever,  at some point in the discussions after the Withdrawal Agreement is signed, the Tories might sell them down the river, in order to get the rest of Britain out of that situation.  If May can provide them with an assurance against that, they can be won over.  Gove's strategy of getting passed March 29th. on the basis of then breaking Britain's Treaty agreements, so as to effectively push through a hard Brexit, makes that a harder sell. 

The ERG

Unlike the DUP, although the ERG have attached their objection to May's Deal to the objections of the DUP over the backstop, the ERG's position and rationale is different.  The ERG do have an ideological and political hostility to the idea of Britain remaining in the CU and Single Market.  The ERG, although the Tory Remainers describe them as extremists, reflect the vast majority of opinion of the Tory rank and file, and core vote, which backs a No Deal Brexit by a majority of 80% to 20%.  That is why, Tory Remainers like Anna Soubry, and Sarah Woolaston quit the Tories to join the TIGGERS, before they were pushed by their local members.  The same thing has happened in the last couple of days to Nick Boles, in Thatcher's old seat, and other prominent Tory Remainers are also being threatened with deselection by their local members.

As I have written before, the policy of Brexit, and particularly of No Deal Brexit is a reflection of the class interests of that 5 million or so small private businesses, whose families and associated layers, make up the core of the Tory membership and voter base.  In the end, May, or any other Tory leader cannot now walk away from the pressure that base is placing upon them.  It is the problem of reconciling that underlying class interest of the small private business that the Tories represent, as against the practical requirement, in office, to represent the interests of the dominant section of capital, large-scale, socialised, multinational, industrial capital, upon which the fortunes of the state depends, that has torn the party apart over the last thirty years.  It is what has led to the downfall of three Tory leaders, and is what caused Cameron to call the referendum to try to manage the internal party ramifications of that division.

Where the DUP can accept May's deal provided they are given sufficient guarantees, and probably further bribes, the ERG cannot, unless it is prepared to signal a complete ideological collapse and surrender.  There is no reason it will do that, given the underlying pressure from the Tory membership, and their core vote.  Even amongst Tory voters, May's deal is the least popular option of all, with support for No Deal dominating, and even staying in the EU being preferred to May's Deal, presumably because May's deal ties the country into the EU, as a vassal state, indefinitely, whereas, staying in the EU, enables them to regroup, and try again.  As Boles resignation shows, it is the Remainers, and those MP's that would back May's deal that are under most pressure, not the ERG.  May might succeed in peeling away a few more, but even that, along with the DUP, does not get her the 75 votes she needs, and the more she appeals to the DUP and ERG, the more she may lose votes on her left flank.

Right-Wing Labour MP's

We have already seen, a couple of weeks ago, that there is a group of around 15-20 right-wing, nationalist Labour MP's, prepared to appease anti-immigrant bigotry, who voted with the Tories to oppose the Cooper Amendment, and to support the Brady Amendment.  In the votes over the last week that group seems to have been reduced in size.  The fact is that all of the arguments used by those MP's to justify voting with the Tories, relating to fearing losing the votes of anti-immigrant bigots in their seats are false.  The number of votes that Labour would lose in those seats, by opposing Brexit, is minimal.  But, more importantly, the fact is that, the Labour members in their constituencies overwhelmingly oppose Brexit, and are even more hostile to the idea of their MP's forming any kind of voting alliance with the Tories that keeps them in office.  So, those MP's are facing the prospect of deselection before the next election, which may not be far away, if they vote against the LP line.  The less likely it is that May can get her deal through, the less likely any Labour MP will be to risk deselection, by scabbing on the party and voting with the Tories.

So, it looks pretty unlikely that May can get her deal approved, next week.

The EU and Extension Of Article 50

Having lost the vote on her deal, next week, May will then have to go cap in hand to the EU Council, and plead for an extension of Article 50.  May knows that she, and in fact no other possible Prime Minister, could allow Britain to simply crash out on March 29th, because the consequences would be so catastrophic for Britain.  It would lead to the government being hounded from office, during a state of emergency, much like, but far worse than happened in 1974, during the Miners Strike and Three Day Week, when Heath went to the country on the question, "Who Rules?" to which the voters replied, "Not you mate!"  It would eman Britain having to make an emergency plea to be readmitted to the EU, probably with all of its current generous rebates, and opt-outs being forfeited in the process.

So, if the EU tells May, there is no possibility of an extension, given the incompetence with which the government has proceeded so far, May would have no alternative, but to come back, and ask parliament to pass legislation revoking Article 50, or even to do that via an Order in Council.  That would mean that Brexit was dead for the foreseeable future.  But, the EU might offer May an extension on the basis of certain conditions.  That would be that Britain must must set out an agreed national position of what it wants - which is what should have been done over the last three years.  It would mean that, at the very least parliament must vote for an agreed position by a significant majority, or more likely that such a position be mandated via another referendum, or a General Election.  The EU, would probably insists that this be done properly, and so requires a significant amount of time to do it, probably at least, two years.  The EU, is already making clear that that means that Britain will also have to take part in this year's election to the EU parliament, and it will mean that Britain will run up additional budget contributions amounting to around £20 billion.

The other consequence is that with the negotiations being reopened, Spain will demand further concessions over Gibraltar, and there will be additional demands in relation to Cyprus, and fishing rights.

In the intervening two year period, which will then require, an additional two tear transition period, before any start is made on determining a longer term trading relation, the demographic changes in Britain, not to mention a General Election means that support for Brexit will have shrunk away to being a relatively small minority, and no major party will be able to win an election on the basis of continuing with the fiasco.

May is hoping that she can persuade the EU to give her an extension until June 30th. so that she can come back to parliament for a fourth try at getting her deal passed.  But, a) there is no reason the EU ill now assist her in that endeavour, and b) no guarantee that she could then get a majority anyway, only days before crashing out, which would mean having to revoke Article 50 by an order in Council, amidst a climate of chaos.  More likely, therefore, that May would call a General Election, and ask the EU for time to implement it.  She will do so on the basis of a proposal to drop her existing deal, and to go for a "Managed No Deal".  That is she would play on the EU's recognition that it does not want a crash out on March 29th either.  Already, some temporary arrangements have been agreed to enable British planes to land directly at EU airports - though UK planes coming from elsewhere in the globe would not be able to land in the EU.  Similar temporary arrangements have been reached in other areas, where the greatest chaos from a crash out would occur.  A "Managed No Deal" would involve a period of perhaps a year, during which such arrangements could be extended to cover other areas of potential chaos, to enable the UK to set up its own certification bodies, or make arrangements to remain in existing EU bodies, at a relevant cost.

The end point of such an arrangement would be that Britain would then negotiate a Canada style free trade agreement with the EU.  But, to pursue such a course, May would need to call a General Election, and thereby obtain the working majority she hoped she was going to get in 2017.  She will need to do that so as to a) overcome opposition from Labour, b) opposition from any Remainer Tory MP's still in their seats, and c) to no longer need the support of the DUP.  May would need to ditch the DUP, because a Canada style FTA does not deal with the question of the Irish Border and requirements of the Good Friday Agreement, which requires regulatory alignment on both sides of the border.  May, or whoever was Tory PM, at the time, would have to throw the DUP under the bus, as they originally proposed, so that Northern Ireland remained inside the EU Single market and Customs Union.  

What If May Gets Her Deal Approved 

May, of course, might get the votes she needs next week, or just days before March 29th.  But, if that is the case, the ERG's fears simply play out.  Over the next few years - because no one believes a new trade deal can be reached in less than about seven years, Britain would remain tied inside the Backstop.  Its position would be worse than now, as all the opponents of May's Deal have set out.  It means that Britain would be inside the Customs Union and Single market indefinitely, but with no vote in the EU institutions, and still bound to make its financial contributions.  It would not be long before hostility to such a condition manifested itself, with the demand of "No Taxation Without Representation", so that Britain would again demand to be let back inside the EU.

A National Government?

The other option is that May might reach across the aisles to Corbyn to form a National Government.  The basis would be as Labour has been suggesting, that May agrees to the idea of supporting Labour's proposals for permanent membership of the Customs Union, and Single Market.  In fact, John Heeley let the cat out of the bag last week by admitting that Labour has no actual objection to May's Withdrawal Agreement, because it agrees with Labour's proposals to be in the CU, and Single Market!  Labour's only reason for not backing May's Deal currently is that, May does not in the political appendix set out the desire to be in the CU and Single market permanently.

But, for the reasons set out above, and in previous posts, May cannot reach across the Corbyn on that basis, because it would split the Tory parliamentary party, and cause the rank and file to rise up in a full scale rebellion.  Nor is the history of such National Governments one that Corbyn is likely to want to follow.  It would put him in the same position as Ramsay McDonald in 1931.  It would likewise, therefore, cause an earthquake of opposition from the Labour rank and file, destroying Labour, and the Corbyn project.

But, even if, as in 1931, such a National Government were to be formed, the position that Labour has put forward is unachievable.  Labour has spoken duplicitously about the EU giving a warm reception to its idea of permanent membership of the Customs Union etc.  But, the EU have made it clear from Day 1 that the idea that Britain could, as labour demands combine that with having a seat at the table, being free to do its own trade deals, and have an end of free movement, is a non-starter.  For the EU to agree to any of that would be to destroy the EU itself, and they will not do it.

So, if Labour and Tories were to make such a joint bid, they would again be faced with either having to capitulate, and settle for the status of a vassal state, taking EU rules, but having not right to determine them, or else they would again have to face the choice of pushing through a No Deal Brexit that would have catastrophic consequences for the UK.  If they choose the former, then again, it will not be long before the question is raised of how on Earth such a condition is in anyway better than simply being inside the EU.  It would mean that in short order, the demand would be raised for Bre-entry.

Whatever the scenario, Brexit is either dead now, or in the foreseeable future.  It should just be given a decent burial, and move on.  Or to put it another way, forget about Brexit, and just get on with it.