Predictions Already Being Met

Predictions Already Being Met 

At the start of 2018, in my predictions for the year ahead, I said that the momentum towards another referendum would become unstoppable. As I wrote at the end of last year, that prediction had been fulfilled. A march of nearly a million people had been held demanding another referendum, in contrast to the handfuls of EDL/BNP/UKIP fanatics that Leave Means Leave could mobilise. The Labour Party, at its Annual Conference had unanimously passed a composite setting out the demand for a General Election, or if that could not happen, another referendum, with Remain on the ballot. The clear implication being that, Labour would argue for Remain, though the lengthy arm-twisting undertaken by the leadership to water down the initial presentation put forward by the CLP motions, was forewarning that Corbyn and parts of the leadership would attempt to avoid implementing that part of it, just as the year before they had bureaucratically kept discussion of Brexit off the conference agenda. Although, the Labour leadership, or parts of it, were trying to avoid opposition to Brexit, the party itself in the shape of 90% of its members, and its Conference decision, came into line with every other party, except the Tories and UKIP, in opposing Brexit, and supporting another referendum. 

As we enter 2019, therefore, that prediction has already been met. At the start of 2019, I predicted that, because the momentum for a People's Vote had become unstoppable, May would be led to call a General Election. The alternative to another referendum can only be that May is able to get some kind of deal through parliament, including a managed no deal, or that she calls a General Election, in the hope of gaining the majority, she currently lacks. May will not want to call another referendum, because it would split the Tory Party in parliament asunder; it would lead to all of the Blair-rights, lining up with the Liberals, Greens, SNP, Plaid, and Tory Remainers, which this time round would be likely to win the vote, meaning that May would have to resign anyway, leading to the General Election she has tried to avoid. 

So, I also predicted that in deciding to call a General Election, May would pivot towards the ERG, and throw the Tory Remainers under the bus. This week that last prediction has been fulfilled. Having massively lost the vote on her Withdrawal Bill, May responded, by wasting further time, to run down the clock, and then pivoted sharp right towards the ERG. She went so far yesterday in supporting the Brady Amendment, which flatly contradicts her narrative that the agreed deal with the EU, was the best and only deal available, and vacuously talks about going back to the EU to demand effectively that the backstop be dropped, as demanded by the ERG. She did that, despite having spoken to Junker at lunchtime, when he told her, before she spoke in the Commons, that there was absolutely no chance of the EU agreeing even to discuss reopening discussion on the backstop. 

May has clearly set out the ground she is going to stand on, in the upcoming battle. It is firmly with the ERG, and on the ground of a managed no deal Brexit. But, its also clear that there is no majority in parliament, currently, for such a no deal Brexit. In again voting for the Dromey-Spellman amendment, which ruled out No Deal, parliament has shown that the only way forward is now a General Election or another referendum. In two weeks time, after the EU have again told May that the Withdrawal Agreement is not going to be reopened, she will come back to parliament, and will either have to a) capitulate once again, reneging on her alliance with the ERG, which will destroy her, because the Tory rank and file will stomach the consequences, or else she will again have to propose a managed no deal, in line with her “No deal is better than a bad deal mantra”. But, as yesterday showed, there is no majority in parliament for such a No Deal solution. As may runs down the clock, and the effects of Brexit become clearer - last night when the amendments weee being serially defeated, the Pound took a massive nosedive, only recovering after the Dromey-Spellman amendment was passed. 

Polls show that 80% of Tory members and voters back No Deal. It is then rather a no brainer for May. What yesterday in parliament showed was that the Tories are able to coalesce around some form of Brexit policy. The Tory RINOS, who caved in the confidence vote against May, have shown that, absent any credible opposition to Brexit from Corbyn's Labour Party, they will suck it up. Those that can't will get removed by their local associations. The last two days, also showed that Corbyn's continued support for Brexit, whilst 90% of the party seeks to stop it, causes Labour, by contrast to be continually fractured and unstable. The fact that Labour, initially, was not going to oppose the racist new Immigration Bill introduced by the Tories, and only half-heartedly agreed to do so, after an incompetent and embarrassing U-turn, illustrates Labour's problem of the leadership being massively out of step with the membership, not just on Brexit, but also on free movement, and opposition to immigration laws. 

Corbyn's leadership is facing all sorts of different roads at the same time, in a form of triangulation way in excess of what even Blair attempted. The result is that the party's policies appear confused and confusing, unthought out, contradictory, and not entirely honest in their advocacy. That is why, as I said at the start of the year, May would be mad not to call a General Election, given the state of disarray within the ranks of Labour on this issue which is the decisive issue of the day, and which has drowned out discussion of all the other aspects of politics, upon which Labour would otherwise have a clear lead. 

As the clock is almost run-out, but with may still unable to get her deal, or a No Deal through parliament, and with her wanting to avoid another referendum, with Corbyn still, currently supporting her in that ambition, her obvious, indeed only choice left, will be to call a General Election. She will, have to ask for an extension of Article 50, because whatever happens now, Brexit cannot be carried through into law by March 29th anyway. She will ask for an extension in order to hold a General Election. The EU may grant it, in order to avoid a crash out on March 29th, but on the basis of understanding that if May wins the election, she will only come back to negotiate a managed “No Deal”, they may not, preferring to allow Britain to collapse in chaos. 

May will then fight a core vote strategy election, just like the core vote strategy saw Brexit over the line in 2016, and saw Trump over the line also. It will be fought around the concept of a managed no deal as proposed by the ERG. It should have been easy to defeat that strategy, but on the current basis, it will not. Bernie Sanders could probably have defeated Trump, but Clinton could not. A progressive Labour Party, having mobilised tens of thousands of young new members, virulently hostile to Brexit, and enthused by the radical economic and social policies of Corbyn, should have been able to defeat May, and a reactionary policy of Brexit. But, all other areas of politics have been drowned out by Brexit. Polls show that now, a majority of people associate more with Remain and Leave than with Labour and Tory, and the enthusiasm for those that support Remain is growing stronger compared to the enthusiasm of those that support Leave. At the moment, Corbyn is throwing away most of that advantage by continuing to argue his reactionary Brexit policy, which is barely distinguishable from that of May. If he changes position, which at this late stage is likely only to be a result of him being forced to do so, by the rank and file of the party, as with the grass roots rebellion over the Immigration Bill, his conversion will appear insincere, which is a problem with a lot of his political positions, now, which undermines one of his main selling points three years ago. 

Currently, Corbyn insists that Labour would go into an election still arguing for Brexit. His positions on the Customs Union and Single Market are exploded every time they come into contact with reality, as May showed yesterday in parliament. He clearly does not understand the technical details of a Customs Union or Single Market, and his position of negotiating a Customs Union makes no sense. It bears no resemblance to reality, which means, as yesterday, the Tories will be able to make him look stupid, or dissembling every time it is discussed. The reality of Corbyn's position on the Customs Union and Single Market is that it is as unachievable, indeed more so, than the Tories idea that they can have a “Customs Arrangement” that enables them to have all the benefits of free trade, as currently enjoyed in the EU, but with none of the responsibilities. So, the Tories, as well as the Liberals, Greens, Plaid, SNP trying to take votes from Labour, will simply be able to point to that inconsistency to show that a labour government would be placed in exactly the same position as the Tories of being unable to achieve their aims, and so faced with the choice of either capitulating on those aims, or else themselves being forced into a No Deal Brexit. Given Corbyn's behaviour over the last three years, and his long standing opposition to the EU, it would have to be suspected that this last outcome is what he would be happy with anyway. 

In 2017, Labour was loaned the votes of tens of thousands of Liberals, Greens, and even some Remainer Tories, where it looked possible that Labour might have a chance of preventing a hard Tory Brexit government coming to power. Labour's behaviour in the last three years, and Corbyn's insistence on arguing for Brexit means those votes, and more besides are likely to disappear in any snap Brexit election. After all, why vote Labour if its is going to pursue an almost identical Brexit agenda as the Tories, which must also end in some form of No Deal Brexit? 

Yesterday, as I had predicted, May threw the Tory Remainers under the ERG bus, as she moves towards a General Election based on a managed no deal. She was assisted in that by around 14 right-wing Labourites, who jumped on board the ERG bus alongside driver Rees-Mogg so as to ensure that they were crushed. It is part of a dangerous reactionary alliance of nationalists that is going along with Britain itself sliding inexorably towards increasing reaction, and disaster.