Brexiteers Continued Delusion and Dissembling

So, there is no deal reached between Theresa May and the EU on the first round of Brexit negotiations. That is despite the extent to which the Brexiteers continue to present their delusions about the extent to which the EU needs Britain, and their dissembling over even the core issues of the stage 1 negotiations.

As I set out a couple of days ago, the Brexiteers continue to dissemble over the issue of the Brexit Bill. On the Daily Politics on Monday, Tory Crispin Blunt, challenged about the fact that May has collapsed over the Brexit Bill, and had now had to agree to the €100 billion gross bill (about €60 billion net) again claimed that €20 billion of that relates to Britain's payments during the transition period. It doesn't. The €20 billion that Britain must pay during the transition period is just a continuation of its normal annual subscription. The €60 billion Brexit Bill relates to the quite separate matter of what Britain owes as its share of the long-term financing costs that the EU has entered into.

As I pointed out the other day, taking the €10 billion a year until 2021, and then another €10 billion a year for five years up to 2026, to cover the Brexit Bill, and taking into consideration that its now clear that Britain will have to take out separate and individual membership of a whole series of European agencies such as EASA, Euratom, and so on, to which it will have to make subscriptions, and given the way the talks over the Irish border are going, Britain will also have to take out membership of the Customs Union and Single Market, the on going costs to Britain in the long-term are likely to be not much different to its current €10 billion a year annual subscription to the EU. The difference will be that it will continue to be subject to the rules and regulations of all these institutions, and to the ECJ, but will have no part in formulating those rules and regulations. The Brexiteers certainly are not making that truth known, because they themselves continue to delude themselves about the ability to stay outside those bodies.

Already, they have had to accept the need to remain in EASA and Euratom, a string of others will follow, and it is now clear that any deal over the Irish border is going to involve Northern Ireland effectively remaining inside the Customs Union and Single Market. Given the hostility of the DUP to any such solution that makes Northern Ireland a special case separate from the UK, the pressure is on May to drop her red lines over membership of the Customs Union and Single Market too. Crispin Blunt argued that if you are going to remain inside the Customs Union and Single Market three is no sense in being outside the EU, because you have all the responsibilities without the rights to participate in the decision making. Quite right, which is why the whole idea of Brexit is itself nonsensical. 

The Spanish seem to have missed a trick, compared to Ireland, because Spain should, like Ireland have flagged up the need for Gibraltar to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market to ensure that a free flow of goods and services etc. continued across the border. No doubt they can pick up that issue if and when talks progress further. Already, quite rightly, Scotland have said that if Northern Ireland gets a separate deal, so too should Scotland, especially as Scotland voted overwhelmingly to Remain in the EU. The Welsh Parliament has made similar comments, and London, which voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, should have the same rights to cut a separate deal as Northern Ireland, and Scotland, as should all of the other metropolitan areas, such as Manchester and Merseyside, which voted for Remain. In fact, one proposal of the European parliament has been to allow UK citizens to take out joint EU Citizenship, which would be a good starting point, in retaining the protection of the ECJ, and in preparation for parts of Britain remaining in the EU, prior to the whole of Britain rejoining at some future point.

The fact is that the whole of Britain will have to effectively retain EU membership via a whole series of separate bodies such as EASA, Euratom, and probably the Customs Union and the Single Market, because the idea that Britain could negotiate some kind of deal that gave all of the benefits of being in these bodies whilst not actually being in them, never was a realistic proposition, and that reality is now being revealed day by day. Some hard line Tory Brexiters like Peter Bone argue that any money or other deal that Britain agrees as part of the stage 1 talks could be withdrawn unless Britain gets the trade deal it wants in Stage 2, but again that is delusional. If Britain welshes on its debts to the EU, by not paying the €60 billion Brexit Bill, then, of course, the EU will refuse to allow Britain to join EASA, or Euratom, and so on, in which case, Britain's airlines will be grounded, and the radioactive isotopes that Britain's NHS needs, from Europe will not get shifted, and outside the European Medicines Association, British based pharmaceutical companies will not be able to sell their products in the EU, causing those companies to shift rapidly to the continent!

The DUP have made clear that if some fudge is stitched up whereby a form of words implying continued regulatory compliance is used to try to get round the issue of Northern Ireland remaining in the Customs Union, and Single market, they will simply use the Stormont Parliament to ensure that Northern Ireland's rules and regulation remain compliant with those in the UK, not those in Ireland and the EU. In other words, such a stitch up would be a non-starter. The idea of some kind of light-tough customs border would also be a non-starter, because not only does that not work seemlessly in places like Norway-Sweden, but the situation in Ireland is different. If some kind of number plate recognition cameras were installed in Ireland, not only would nationalists see this as a re-erection of the border, and so a target for attack, but all sorts of criminal elements would seek to blow up such technology. There is no problem policing such a border in Norway-Sweden, because there is no border question between those two countries. But, put even police on the Irish border to protect the cameras and technology, and they will become targets themselves. That would then lead to armed police being installed, and then troops, and then we are quickly back to the situation of 1969, and the resumption of sectarian civil war, and armed struggle, along with the bombing of the British mainland. It should also be remembered that the PIRA were far more effective in their mainland bombing campaigns than the jihadists have ever been, and without the need for suicide bombers!