The Fantasy Politics of The Tories and SNP

Both the Tories and the SNP have a shared interest in putting forward a political scenario that is a total fantasy. It is that a future Labour government will have to have some kind of deal with the SNP. Not only is no such deal even likely, but it would be disastrous for Labour to contemplate, as indeed would be any kind of deal between Labour, and whatever is left of the Liberals. A look at the reality of the parliamentary mathematics shows why no such deal is required.

The Tories keep going on about only needing another 23 seats. But, the fact is that the Tories will end up with fewer seats, after the election, not more! They have essentially given up hope of a majority, which is why their electoral strategy has become wholly centred around trying to retain their core support, and, if possible, winning back the support of Ukippers. Its an indication of just how electorally time limited the Tories are. Their demographic is now comprised of a group of narrow minded, comfortably off, old biddies, who are literally dying off.

Where the Tories do win seats, it will be in places like the South-West, where they will win votes from their Liberal allies, as the Liberals themselves disappear up their own backside, having committed hari-kiri, by showing their true colours in supporting one of the most right-wing Tory governments there has been. The Liberals laughably talk about occupying a centre position between Labour and the Tories. They don't seem to realise that, with Ed Miliband hardly being seen even as another Harold Wilson, let alone a Clem Attlee, for the Liberals to place themselves to the right of Labour, shows just how far to the Right the Liberals are! But, in that case, why vote for the pathetic Liberals, when you could vote for the real thing by voting Tory?

With the Tories losing seats, and with their Liberal partners losing even more seats, the chances of another Liberal-Tory government is out of the question, however much Nick Clegg might pray for it to save his skin. Moreover, its unlikely that the Tories natural allies amongst the Ulster Unionists will win enough seats to put them in office. So, the parliamentary maths means that Cameron cannot put together a majority.

Constitutionally, if no party has a majority, Cameron can stay in Downing Street, until a potential government is put together. If Cameron and the Tories have the largest number of seats – which is still not likely, because the opinion polls suggest Labour and Tories are neck and neck, and the arrangement of boundaries gives Labour an advantage, besides which Labour just has more troops on the ground to get the vote out in the marginal seats – then Cameron could attempt to put forward a Queen's Speech, but it would be voted down by all the opposition parties, given that he would have no majority.

The reality, is then that he would not be able to form a government, even before he started. Even if he did by some fluke get past that hurdle, he would lead an incredibly weak government, because the DUP have said, for example, that they would demand an end to the bedroom tax, and the Liberals would almost certainly have to oppose an EU referendum, which would cause a back bench rebellion in Tory ranks, bringing Boris Johnson to power. Such a government even if it got started would fall within a matter of weeks, and under the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, that would mean that Labour would have to be invited to form a government.

But, the situation facing a minority Labour government would be completely different to that facing a minority Tory government. Labour would draw up its Queen's Speech based upon its manifesto commitments. Despite all of the fantasies put forward by the Tories and the SNP, it would have absolutely no reason to have any discussions, let alone negotiations with the SNP or anyone else, in doing so. As I suggested some months ago, and as Roy Hattersley has suggested recently, Labour would put forward its Queen's Speech, and simply dare the other parties to vote it down.

That is a completely different situation to that facing a Minority Tory government. Labour would be expected automatically to vote down a Tory Queen's Speech, just as the Tories would be expected to vote against a Labour Queen's Speech, but the difference lies with the cleft stick in which the SNP would find itself. The SNP would have to join Labour in voting down a Tory Queen's Speech, or face wipe out in Scotland, but for the same reason, if it voted with the Tories to oppose a Labour Queen's Speech, it would equally face wipe out in Scotland. Remember, this is the same SNP that voted against Labour in 1979, and brought Thatcher to power. It would not live to do that twice.

That is why, whenever, SNP spokespeople are asked if they would vote down a Labour Queen's Speech, even if it contained measures they opposed, they hum and arrh, and avoid answering the question. The truth is that the SNP are holding a gun that only contains blanks. No matter how much the SNP bluff and bluster, no matter how much of Labour's Queen Speech they oppose, the truth is that they will have to vote for it, and put Labour in government, without anything being given in return.

And the same is true for all of the measures that a Labour minority government might then put forward. Labour has no reason to talk to the SNP, other than to give them a polite time of day in passing them by in the corridors. On many issues Labour would not even need votes from others to pass its legislation, and although the SNP might put forward amendments to Labour measures, they are unlikely to be able to win a majority for those amendments, so the Labour proposals will pass anyway. But, with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, the hands of the SNP are tied even more. Under the act, even important votes are no longer necessarily votes of confidence.

If Labour were to lose such an important vote, it would simply trigger an actual confidence vote, for which the SNP would have to vote rather than bring down the Labour government, and put the Tories in office.

The Tories and the SNP are living in a fantasy land, driven by their shared conservative nationalist ideology and joint interests, designed to obscure the reality that Labour will be the next government of Britain, and they need no deals with the SNP or anyone else.