So, David Cameron is not to stand for a third term. Well that at least is good news, but we rather hope that he doesn't even get a second term, and maybe he thinks he's not going to get one either, which could be the reason for his announcement now. Its perhaps a surprise he's lasted this long, given that the Tory Party continues to be riven by divisions over Europe. A long time ago, I pointed out that those forces, within the Tory Party and within its wider periphery, were already forming up behind a future challenger, in the shape of Boris Johnson. Now Cameron has put the curse on him, by naming him as a potential successor.
However much Cameron and the Tory spokesmen now swivel, and squirm, its clear the cat is out of the bag. In the upcoming election, if you vote for Cameron you get Boris Johnson, or possibly even worse. No matter who wins the General Election, the division in the Tory Party, between its conservative, nationalistic, Eurosceptic wing, and what remains of its social-democratic, Europhile wing (a division which reflects the contradictory interests of different sections of capital) will again tear it apart, especially under pressure from UKIP, and a Euro Referendum. Even if a referendum were held, just as with the Scottish referendum, it will not assuage the conservative nationalists when they lose. It will just become a neverendum in the Tory Party.
Under those conditions, and with a failure of UKIP to make any significant headway in the election, in terms of seats, many will turn their attention to an entry tactic into the Tory Party, from whence they came, in order to line up behind even more extreme, conservative, nationalist pretenders than even Bojo. Given that the BNP already adopted a similar tactic of entry into UKIP after their own electoral demise, the reality will be, vote Tory, and get something really nasty!
According to Tory spokesmen in the last 24 hours, the reason for Cameron's statement that he intends to serve a full second term, and no more, is that he was simply giving an honest answer to a question. But, that simply prompts the question - "So why has he started giving honest answers now!"
The Liberal-Tories came to office on the basis of lies, and their entire narrative, for the last five years, and now, in the election campaign, is based on lies. For the last five years, Cameron has made a profession of standing up, every Wednesday, in Parliament, at Prime Ministers Questions, and going on ad nauseum about anything other than providing an answer to any of the questions that have been put to him! So, why has he decided to answer questions openly and truthfully now?
Perhaps, the reality is that the Tories have nothing positive to actually say, and wanted to keep other news stories about their candidates dealings with members of the English Defence League out of the headlines. Whatever the real reason for Cameron's comment, the fact is that he will not be serving even a second term, let alone a third term. The Tories have little chance of securing a majority, and that will make Cameron a second time loser, having failed in 2010. He is on his way, and the only question is when.
That could have also been the reason for his comment. But, the fact is that the Tory hares are now running. The Tory Party, for the foreseeable future, will be concentrated as much on its internal elections, as on Parliamentary elections. The idea that Cameron could serve a full second term, but not stand in a 2020 General Election is also not credible, because, the Tories would need to have a candidate in place well ahead of the 2020 elections. The idea that they would elect a replacement leader say in June 2019, who would then simply twiddle their thumbs for six months waiting to lead the Party into the 2020 elections is simply not credible, in a parliamentary system, as opposed to the Presidential system in the US.
Even in the US, it means that incumbent Presidents become lame ducks, in the back end of their Presidency. The in fighting in the Tory Party will now make the squabbles between Brown and Blair look like a children's tea party, by comparison. In fact, what Cameron has shown, is something I pointed out when they first came into office, above anything else, they are totally inept.
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