Unfortunately, the prediction I made some weeks ago, that Ukraine Is Going To The Dogs, is being proved true. It is being torn apart by conflicting forces. On the one hand, US and EU imperialism, which openly admit they poured billions of dollars into promoting the opposition forces in Western Ukraine, and gave false hope to the people of that area, were able, as they have been so many times in the past, to facilitate the tearing down of the existing, and undoubtedly corrupt, state apparatus, but unable to put any better apparatus in its place. Even the US Congress has now criticised the role of US Ambassador in Ukraine, Victoria Nuland in that regard. As happened in Iraq, in Libya, in Afghanistan and many more places, instead of opening up a space for democracy, what they opened up was a space for fascism and reaction. Without powerful industrial bourgeoisies, able to establish a modern social democracy, in an alliance with the working-class, what happens is that the most organised forces in society take control of the streets, and in most cases those forces are the forces of extreme nationalism, religious fundamentalism and fascism. In Ukraine, the fascist forces that have exerted an influence way above their already sizeable social weight, in fact, combine all of these influences.
Even BBC and Channel4 News now have interviews with old men and women in South and Eastern Ukraine, who are clearly neither terrorists, nor Russian soldiers in heavy disguise. Yet, its against these ordinary Ukrainian workers, engaged in peaceful protest, that the Ukrainian state is now sending in the tanks and heavy artillery, as well as heavily armed infantry. When Assad did that in Syria, the West who, along with the Gulf despotic regimes, were arming his opponents, were full of righteous indignation, and were within a whisker of starting yet another Middle East war against him. They were supported by Stalinists like the AWL, who have entered their own version of "peaceful co-existence" with imperialism, as they have given up all hope of actual "independent working-class action", outside their calls for it at Summer Schools, or their reformist version of it as nothing more than economistic, trade union struggle.
Far more people have been killed in South-Eastern Ukraine, in the last week or so, by the open actions of that state, and of fascist militias, than were killed in the Maidan protests, by rifle fire that was supposed to have come from the forces of the old state, but which it now turns out itself came from the leaders of the Maidan protests themselves. Yet, imperialism, which has still failed to own up to the truth about the Maidan shootings, has so far failed to condemn Kiev for the violence in the East. Instead, they, with a straight face, blame it on Russia!
But, today the imperialists, and their supporters, like the AWL, instead of attacking the Ukrainian fascists, attack Russia, that so far has not sent one soldier into Ukraine. At the same time, they effectively represent the workers of South-Eastern Ukraine as being nothing more than cyphers for Putin's expansionary ambitions. Yet, when you see the pictures of workers burned to death in Odessa, or the tanks and military machine of the Ukrainian state rolling over the bones of workers in the East, is it any wonder that those workers chant "Russkaye", and that they are, increasingly, being forced into looking East, towards Big Brother Putin. In fact, the actions of imperialism seem designed to push Russia into invading Ukraine. Yet, if Russia had any sense, its attitude would be to say to imperialism, "You broke it, you bought it," because mending Ukraine's shattered economy will require hundreds of billions of dollars.
The answer is no it is not surprising, that Ukrainian workers, in the South-East of Ukraine, particularly the ethnic Russians, should look towards Putin for help, just as it was not surprising that Sudeten Germans looked towards Hitler, and Jews looked to the establishment of their own Zionist state. Understandable, but wrong. The only solution for workers, in the South-East of Ukraine today, just as was the case for the Sudeten Germans, and was the case for Jews, is in building on the basis of their common interests with other workers, not to look to an alliance with their class enemies, or to some alien class state.
The Ukrainian workers in the East might understandably believe that Putin is their best current hope, but, in reality, it would mean simply exchanging oppression from one bunch of reactionaries for oppression by another, more powerful, bunch of reactionaries. Similarly, workers in the West of Ukraine, could be forgiven for believing that their best interests lie in obtaining support from imperialism. That after all is the lesson of history, recognised by Marx and Engels and Lenin, of why small states are historically reactionary. Unable to stand on their own feet, they invariably seek support from some external, bigger backer. It is the dynamic that led from the Balkan Wars to World War I. That too was fuelled by the liberal-interventionists, as I set out in Lessons Of The Balkans. Yet, just a look at the solutions that imperialism has proposed, in the form of severe austerity, for peripheral Europe, and that they are already proposing to impose on the workers of Ukraine, should be enough to convince them otherwise. Imperialism seems to be relying on a kind of Hobbesian ideology, that a people that feels threatened enough as to its existence, will be prepared to give the sovereign absolute power in order to defend them.
The demands of the AWL, for that imperialism to scrap all of Ukraine's debts, are as servile and pathetic as their demand that the capitalist state act on workers' behalf to nationalise various industries, and then willingly hand over control of them to the workers! There is no means of workers currently forcing imperialism to do any such thing, and no rational reason why imperialism would do so voluntarily. The only thing we can do is to build our own links, build our own independent workers organisations across borders, and build our own economic and political structures in opposition to those of capitalism. That of course, is a less glamorous, harder, more long-term solution than the calls for revolution now, or the kind of snappy demands that much of the Left seems bound to have to put forward.
In situations like Ukraine, it is even more difficult, because the very conditions mitigate against working-class solidarity. Workers in the West of Ukraine are being pulled further West, whilst their fellow workers, in the East, are being pulled in the opposite direction. The dynamic is driving an increasing wedge between them, and the forces of reaction are utilising it, to push forward their own agenda. The reality that socialists have seemed unable to come to terms with, is that ideologies that appeal to the emotions, based on blood, race, and religion are more powerful than Socialism, because they appeal to sentiments that go back millennia. They are more immediately accessible, especially to frightened people. Winning people to the ideas of Socialism requires a much higher level of development, of education and culture, and of social solidarity, built upon structures developed by workers over a long period, in opposition to those of capitalism. That is why when millions of workers lined up behind those ideas, at the start of World War I, many socialists, in a form of ultra-leftism, that could not understand why workers would react in that way, could only explain it by blaming the "betrayal" of the workers leaders. It is a failing that has weakened the labour movement ever since.
As Trotsky, said, our first duty is to tell the truth to the workers, even when it is unpalatable. As he told the Palestinian Trotskyists prior to WWII, unfortunately, that means, with our currently small forces, we cannot act as a fire brigade rushing to every event. We have to recognise that just as we cannot win every strike, or even organise a strike on every occasion when workers come under attack, we cannot deal with every injustice. A moralistic feeling that we have to, can only lead us to look to other forces to make up for our own inadequacy, which is the fate that has befallen Third Campists like the AWL, SWP etc. Instead of being in the camp of the workers, it leads them inexorably into the camp of those reactionary forces that best meet their categorical moral imperative, in any particular event.
In Ukraine, as in Syria and other such cases, we can only outline our programme of what the workers in those countries should do, and what the international labour movement should do to support them. In the process that leads us to set out the weaknesses of the current state of that international labour movement, of its ideas, and its structures. It means we have to start by trying to remedy those failings in our own back yard first. As Marx said in relation to Poland, its independence would be won in Britain, by which he meant, the development of the British labour movement, its overthrow of capitalism, would be not only the inspiration, and the example that workers across Europe needed, but it would also be the basis of providing the physical support those workers required.
In Britain, the example we should give, to the Ukrainian workers, is to oppose the reactionary calls to divide the Scottish workers, from the workers of the rest of Britain, on nationalistic lines. We should similarly, oppose all of the reactionary calls, to separate British workers from European workers, by a withdrawal from the EU, which would simply replicate the current divisions in Ukraine, in the Balkans and elsewhere, on a larger scale, and recreate the very conditions that led to WWI.
Instead, of pathetic appeals to the capitalist state, on a national or international level, to intervene on workers' behalf, be it military intervention or nationalisation, we should in every instance advance the demand for the workers themselves to act as the agents of their own salvation and independence.
When factories go bust, they should be occupied and turned into co-operatives, and embedded within a much wider co-operative federation, owned and controlled by workers across Europe. As Engels put it, the only state aid we should demand is that provided to any other capitalist enterprise, because there is no reason we should disadvantage ourselves by not taking it.
When workers are in struggle against capitalism, be it a co-operative against capital and its state, workers on strike against a capitalist employer, or workers being oppressed by a reactionary state, our response is to mobilise whatever solidarity and physical support our forces can muster, at the time, irrespective of capitalist laws. We should point out that those laws are capitalist laws, class laws designed to prevent us furthering our interests, and a reason we need to develop the Workers Party, in order to obtain political power for the working-class, and to put in their place, our own laws designed to enable workers to progress.
We should be as opposed to Russia intervening in Ukraine as we are to imperialism's intervention. But, a sense of proportion is required here. Over the last several decades, it has been imperialism that has intervened, with impunity, across the globe, not Russia. Current geo-politics is driven currently by the desire of particularly US imperialism, to hem in its major potential rivals, Russia and China. To emphasise criticism of Russia, under current conditions, is to display either an inability to use a political compass, or else to be a willing tool of imperialism. That doesn't mean we should be so naive as to believe that Russia is not intervening covertly in Ukraine, and we should oppose it, but the main enemy is still at home, and the main enemy of the global working-class remains US imperialism not Russia, or China.
At the same time, if there were a war between Ukraine and Russia, socialists would have to defend Ukraine despite the fascistic nature of its regime, for the same reason that Trotsky argued for support for Brazil in a war against Britain. An inevitable Russian victory in such a war would not bring anything good for Ukrainian workers. Even were Russia a bourgeois democratic state, its victory would, almost certainly, only replace one set of fascistic rulers, in Kiev, with another. Given the nature of the Russian regime, it is even less likely to install a more progressive regime in Kiev than exists in Moscow! But, for now, there is no war between Ukraine and Russia. To centre your propaganda on opposing a Russian intervention that, so far, does not exist, as the AWL do, is to simply turn yourself into a mouthpiece for imperialism, a role they seem to have found comfortable.
For the reasons set out in the past, socialists should oppose any demand to create any new bourgeois state in Eastern Ukraine, whilst supporting the demand of the people in that area for self-determination. But, as Lenin points out, we are for workers self-determination ahead of any national self-determination. The former demands that we emphasise the unity of workers across borders, as a means to that self-determination, and liberation. We want to tear down borders not set them up. That means that we should support all demands for greater autonomy in South-Eastern Ukraine, and we should argue for a joint struggle by all Ukrainian workers West and East, as a means to achieve it. Ultimately, if workers in the South-East demand it, we should support their joining the existing bourgeois state in Russia, rather than the establishment of any new state. But, we should oppose any Russian intervention to bring it about.
In the end, the solution for workers in Ukraine does lie in the establishment of a United States of Europe. But, such a state should also include Russia. In fact, given the statement of Victoria Nuland to "Fuck The EU", it seems clear that, as usual, the US is setting Europe up as the battle ground for its geo-political ambitions, and encouraging Europe to be the ones who pay the costs of sanctions imposed on Russia, as a means of once more strengthening the position of US imperialism, against EU Imperialism. The reality is that this is not the 1920's, Russia is not the USSR under the Bolsheviks, and the sanctions are likely to backfire. Putin has been attempting to build a Eurasian economic bloc, similar to the EU. It has also been drawing closer to China, against whom the US has been making increasing threatening gestures, in the Pacific.
Russia can easily supply its oil and resources to China rather than the EU, and take Chinese commodities in exchange, rather than commodities bought from the EU. There are lots of nicer places, around the globe, than London or New York, for Russian oligarchs to buy multi-million pound properties, lots of alternative tax havens to Britain, Luxembourg, the Channel Isles and so on. But, even in the Summer, an EU deprived of oil and gas, would quickly find its electricity generation began to run into difficulties, and that would quickly bring its industry to a halt. Then again, its already weak economy would suffer even more, if it found it was no longer selling commodities to Russia, and that Russia and China were no longer buying its bonds.
The main people to suffer from this will be European workers. That is why we should argue for a more consistently democratic EU, for the establishment of a United States of Europe, within which workers across Europe can build their own unity, their own independence, their own economic and political structures, through which they can appeal to their comrades in Russia, and indeed in the whole world.
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