Now Its Official

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research has now said, that the UK economy stopped contracting in April. See: NIESR . This confirms what I said in my blog a couple of weeks ago The Recession Is Over . Its my intention to provide a fuller account of the reasons for making that call, once I have time.

In the meantime the FT, has also today come out with a report from the OECD, which also comes to similar conclusions.



A string of further data continue to show that the deterioration in conditions is lessening, and the basis for a resumption of growth is being laid. The FT also has a report today that Retail Sales in the UK increased at the fastest rate in 3 years, whilst house prices, although still falling, are falling less quickly. One bad sign is the continued rise in unemployment, but for economists that is a lagging indicator, it can continue to rise up to a year after recessions have ended so its continued rise is no surprise.

More soon.